Week 13 Top 25

Top 25

RK	CFB Playoff Poll	AP Poll	Jeremy	Nick
1	Alabama	Florida State	Florida State	Alabama
2	Oregon	Alabama	Alabama	Florida State
3	Florida State	Oregon	Oregon	Oregon
4	Miss State	Miss State	Miss State	Baylor
5	TCU	TCU	Baylor	Mississippi State
6	Ohio State	Baylor	TCU	TCU
7	Baylor	Ohio State	Ohio State	Georgia
8	Ole Miss	Ole Miss	Georgia	Ohio State
9	UCLA	Georgia	Ole Miss	UCLA
10	Georgia	Michigan State	Kansas State	Ole Miss
11	Michigan State	UCLA	Michigan State	Kansas State
12	Kansas State	Kansas State	UCLA	Michigan State
13	Arizona State	Arizona State	Wisconsin	Auburn
14	Auburn	Wisconsin	Auburn	Wisconsin
15	Arizona	Arizona	Arizona State	Arizona
16	Wisconsin	Auburn	Missouri	Arizona State
17	Utah	Georgia Tech	Arizona	Missouri
18	Georgia Tech	Marshall	Georgia Tech	Colorado State
19	USC	Missouri	Colorado State	Marshall
20	Missouri	Utah	Marshall	Georgia Tech
21	Oklahoma	Nebraska	Nebraska	Oklahoma
22	Clemson	Colorado State	USC	USC
23	Nebraska	Oklahoma	Clemson	Clemson
24	Louisville	USC	Oklahoma	Utah
25	Minnesota	Duke	Duke	Nebraska

Movers and Shakers

An interesting week in the poll, following week 12.  Three teams ranked in last week’s top 10 (Miss St., ASU and Auburn) lost and seven of the teams ranked 11-25 lost (Nebraska, LSU, ND, Clemson, Duke, Texas A&M and Minnesota).  Notre Dame, LSU, Duke and A&M all drop out of the rankings despite being ranked higher than a Minnesota team (No. 25 last week) who also lost but still finds itself, curiously at number 25.

Alabama’s win over Mississippi State probably has the biggest impact, as it moves the Tide into the No. 1 spot, while MSU drops to No. 4.  Ohio State, off a quality win (wink, wink) over 25th ranked Minnesota jumps the 7th ranked Baylor Bears and sits at No. 6 this week.  The Buckeyes are in a perfect position to slide into the top four should one of the teams ahead of them lose.  UCLA (No. 9) and Georgia (No. 10) move up into the top 10 this week and Arizona State and Auburn both drop out after losses.  

USC, Missouri, Oklahoma and Louisville are all back in the top 25 this week after solid wins… except for Louisville, who had a bye.    

Playoff Picture

We knew there would be some movement in the playoff picture going into the final few weeks of the season and things are getting very interesting.  Alabama’s win over Mississippi State puts the SEC in an interesting position and keeps alive the idea that we could get two playoff teams from this conference.  Let’s break it down conference by conference with teams that have a legit shot at getting in.

*Barring some miracle that Missouri wins the SEC, let’s assume the winner of the SEC is a lock.

SEC

No. 1 Alabama- All the Tide need to do is win out.  There’s an outside chance that they could suffer another loss and still make it in but they’d need some help for that to happen.  

No. 4 Miss State- The Bulldogs are in a solid position right now despite coming off a loss.  The fact that they’re still ahead of TCU, Baylor and Ohio State is significant because their resume (assuming they beat No. 8 Ole Miss in two weeks) will be just as strong as the teams trying to jump them.

No. 8 Ole Miss- The Rebels, like Georgia are a bit of a wild card.  They have the tie-breaker over Alabama and they play Mississippi State in two weeks.  If Ole Miss wins out (@ Ark, vs. #4 Miss St), they would jump Alabama and Miss State and win the West.  Assuming they go on to win the SEC, they’d be your SEC rep.  

No. 10 Georgia- Sitting at 8-2 (6-2 in the SEC), the Bulldogs need some help.  If Missouri losses to Tennessee or Arkansas than Georgia will win the East and play for the SEC title.  Assuming they go on to win the SEC Championship, Georgia would have finished the season with wins over ranked teams- Auburn, Georgia Tech and the winner of the SEC West.  They probably wouldn’t get a 1 or 2 seed with two losses but they would certainly be in the playoff as the SEC Champ.

No. 20 Missouri- Few teams have a better opportunity to blow the playoff up in year one than Missouri.  The Tigers just returned to the top 25 this week and at No. 20, have a long way to go to get to the top four.  Missouri (8-2, 5-1 SEC) does currently sit atop the SEC East and if they manage to win out and beat Alabama in the SEC Championship what will the committee do?  Does a two loss Missouri team with a loss to Indiana and a 34-0 loss to Georgia really make the playoff?  Is it possible Missouri wins the SEC and doesn’t get in and they take a two-loss Alabama or a Miss State team that didn’t make the championship?

ACC

No. 3 Florida State- It’s simple, win and you’re in.  FSU is probably looking at a three or four seed.

Pac-12

No. 2 Oregon- The Ducks are in the same position as FSU, they have to win out.  

B1G

No. 6 Ohio State- The Buckeyes will need a little help but if they win out, they will finish ahead of TCU and Baylor.  This means they’re going to be cheering hard against FSU and Oregon because if one of these two loses, Ohio State will be in the mix.  

  

Big 12

No. 5 TCU- It’s going to get interesting for TCU and even though they’re sitting at No. 5, they’re probably going to be on the outside looking in regardless of teams losing ahead of them.  TCU is tied at the hip to Baylor and finishing tied with Baylor will hurt them just as much as Baylor losing again.  The fact that TCU is already sitting behind three one-loss teams is troubling and there are no quality wins left on their schedule.  They should win out but even if they do, the most recent wins they will have had are Kansas, Texas and Iowa State.  I think TCU is out.

No. 7 Baylor- Even though Baylor is sitting behind TCU, I think they’re in a little better position than the Horned Frogs.  They finish the season Dec. 6th against a Kansas State team that should be sitting somewhere in the top 15.  Given the fact that Baylor could get a more high-profile win than TCU to finish the season and having the head-to-head win Baylor should finish just ahead of the Horned Frogs.  Unfortunately, their non-conference schedule is a joke and even at 11-1, they would probably need some help to get in.

After all that, here’s how I would rank chances of the teams I think are still in the playoff hunt.  I’ve taken into consideration current ranking, remaining schedule and how much control they have over getting in.

In if they win

Oregon

FSU

Ohio State

Alabama

Help wanted

Baylor

Mississippi State

Ole Miss  

TCU

Georgia