Saturday, November 1, 2014

College Football- Week 10 Picks and Predictions



Week 10 Previews
*Rankings reflect College Football Playoff Rankings

 

Top 25 vs. Top 25

 

No. 2 Florida State 42, No. 25 Louisville 31

Despite a slow start (FSU was down 24-7), the Seminoles showed yet again that they can turn it on when they need to.  The ‘Noles gained over 370 yards and scored 35 points in the second half to come away with another hard-fought, come from behind win.

 

No. 3 Auburn (6-1) @ No. 4 Ole Miss (7-1), 7pm ET, ESPN/WatchESPN
Line: MISS -1.5, O/U: 49

You can consider this round 1 of the college football playoff.  Auburn and Ole Miss come into this game ranked 3 and 4, respectively in the College Football Playoff rankings and each team has a loss.  There is a chance that the committee will allow a two-loss SEC team in, but with what each team has remaining on their schedules, a loss here will effectively end their playoff hunt. 

These teams seem to be opposites of each other.  Auburn is an offensive juggernaut with a struggling defense and Ole Miss has a dominant defense and an offense that’s been a liability at times this season.  With the injuries piling up on defense and “Bad Bo” starting to rear its ugly head, I think the season is slipping away for the Rebels. 

Auburn might start slow but I expect them to run away with this one late in the second half.

Jeremy- Auburn 38, Ole Miss 21
Nick- Ole Miss 17, Auburn 13

 
 
No. 7 TCU (6-1) @ No. 20 West Virginia (6-2), 3:30pm ET, ABC/ESPN2
Line: TCU -3.5, O/U: 70

There are few places in college football more challenging to travel to and win than Morgantown, West Virginia.  TCU won here two years ago in a 39-38 overtime, thriller.  This year, both teams are significantly improved on both side of the ball and each team seems to be playing their best football of the season.  The Mountaineers have found balance on offense and their defense has played pretty well this season.  They’re going to need an efficient, mistake-free game from quarterback Clint Trickett and continue to run the ball just enough to keep TCU off balance defensively.

The Horned Frogs have found an offense for the first time since joining the Big 12 and it’s been among the most explosive in the nation (2nd in total offense averaging 573ypg and 1st in scoring offense at 50.4ppg).  If quarterback, Trevone Boykin gets hot, look for them to get into the 40’s or 50’s and turn this into a shootout. 

Jeremy- TCU 37, WVU 31
Nick- TCU 56, WVU 30

 

No. 12 Arizona (6-1) @ No. 22 UCLA (6-2), 10:30pm ET, ESPN/WatchESPN
Line: UCLA -6.5, O/U: 70.5

We are going to learn a lot about both of these teams in this game. Arizona is still riding high off the Oregon win and UCLA is badly in need of a statement win. With the Cats coming to the Rose Bowl here is the Bruins chance. The problem is there is not much to like about UCLA and how it has played this season. I think Arizona’s offense is going to be too much for UCLA and I think the ‘Zona wins a close one but wins outright.

Nick- Arizona 48, UCLA 41
Jeremy- Arizona 40, UCLA 34

 
 
No. 14 Arizona State (6-1) vs. No. 17 Utah (6-1), 11pm ET, FOX Sports 1
Line: ASU -6.5, O/U: 58.5

I am not really sure which way to go in this game. Both teams have equal number of flaws and have been up and down all season. Utah has an excellent running game as Devontae Booker has rushed for nearly 850 yards and eight scores. Arizona State does get Taylor Kelly back for this game which could be good and bad as Mike Bercovici has been very serviceable in his absence. I think that Utah should be able to control the ball and that combined with its solid offense should earn the Utes a good home victory.

Nick- Utah 45, Arizona State 35
Jeremy- Arizona State 31, Utah 24

 

 

Upset Alert

 
No. 5 Oregon (7-1) vs. Stanford (5-3), 7:30pm ET, FOX
Line: UO -7, O/U: 54.5

Stanford has had Oregon’s number the past few seasons.  The difference has been the Cardinal’s ability to own the line of scrimmage and run the ball right over the Oregon defense.  The offense hasn’t been the same this season, however, and they really haven’t been able to rely on the ground and pound the way they have in the past.  Oregon’s defense isn’t great and I think if Stanford can get Ty Montgomery involved early and often, they’ll have a shot to put up enough points to help their defense.

Defensively, Stanford has been very solid, if not great this season, despite the inept offense.  Oregon quarterback, Marcus Mariota has struggled against this defense and he’s going to need his offensive line and running backs to step up big and play their best game of the season.  As much as I want to take Stanford here, this just isn’t the same team and Mariota seems poised to have a big game.

Jeremy- Oregon 27, Stanford 23
Nick- Oregon 35, Stanford 17

 
 
No. 23 East Carolina (6-1) @ Temple (4-3), 12pm ET, ESPNews/WatchESPN
Line: ECU -7, O/U: 58.5

This is an interesting matchup and has a lot of people screaming upset.  The Pirates seem to have lost some of the steam they had early in the season and have struggled now for a few weeks on offense.  Temple has a solid pass defense (ranked 22nd in the nation) and could give Shane Carden and his receivers some trouble.  The Owls haven’t faced a passing attack of this caliber but will get some help from the home crowd. 

Jeremy- ECU 30, Temple 24
Nick- ECU 48, Temple 35

 
 

Top 25

 
No. 1 Mississippi State (7-0) vs. Arkansas (4-4), 7:15pm ET, ESPN2/WatchESPN
Line: MSST -11, O/U: 60

Arkansas has been pretty competitive against SEC opponents so far this season, taking Texas A&M to overtime and a missed field goal was the difference against Alabama.  This game pits strength versus strength, with the Razorbacks 16th ranked rushing offense (258.9ypg) against Mississippi State’s 23rd ranked run defense (118ypg and 3.39ypa). 

I want to take Arkansas in the upset here (Arkansas did take them into OT last year), but I just don’t see it happening.  Arkansas can keep it close if they can control the line of scrimmage but I like Mississippi State at home.

Jeremy- Miss St 38, Arkansas 28
Nick- MSU 35, Arkansas 17

 
 
No. 6 Alabama (7-1), IDLE
Next game- Sat, Nov. 8 @ LSU

 

No. 10 Notre Dame (6-1) @ Navy (4-4), 8pm ET, CBS
Line: ND -14.5, O/U: 54.5

Notre Dame is still trying to make its case as a playoff contender so it is going to need to easily cruise past Navy. The academy is pretty average but its running game as always is tough to handle. Jeremy, the other KinneyBroz Benji and KinneyBroz Dad saw Notre Dame and Navy play last year in person and the Irish had trouble handling the run. Something to look for, but I see Notre Dame running away with this one.

Nick-Notre Dame 38, Navy 17
Jeremy- Notre Dame 35, Navy 20

 
 
No. 8 Michigan State (7-1), IDLE
Next game- Sat, Nov. 8 vs. Ohio State


 
No. 11 Georgia (6-1) vs. Florida (3-3), Jacksonville, 3:30pm ET, CBS
Line: UGA -10.5, O/U: 47

These teams come into this game going in completely opposite directions.  The Bulldogs seem to be hitting their stride and seem to look better and better each week.  Florida has pretty much spiraled out of control, losing back to back home games against LSU and Missouri.  For that reason, it seems totally plausible that the Gators would turn in an inspired performance and shock Georgia in the “Cocktail Party.”  I know that sounds crazy and it is, but Georgia has won three straight and if the Gators are going to turn in one inspired, rise-above-it performance this year, it’s going to happen on Saturday.  Or they’ll continue their tail-spin and get drilled by 30.

Jeremy- Georgia 27, Florida 17
Nick- UGA 42, UF 14

 
 
No. 9 Kansas State (6-1) vs. Oklahoma State (5-3), 8pm ET, ABC/WatchESPN
Line: KSU -12.5, O/U: 50.5

The Wildcats have been rolling the past few weeks and while they’re not dominant, they’re well coached, don’t make mistakes and are simply the better team here. 

Jeremy- Kansas State 31, OK St 21
Nick- Kansas St 35, OK St 21


 
No. 13 Baylor (6-1) vs. Kansas (2-5), 4pm ET, FOX Sports 1
Line: Baylor -35.5, O/U: 60

Stay healthy Baylor, you travel to Norman next weekend.

Jeremy- Baylor 55, Kansas 17
Nick- Baylor 70, Kansas 27

 
 
No. 16 Ohio State (6-1) vs. Illinois (4-4), 8pm ET, ABC/WatchESPN
Line: OSU -28.5, O/U: 65

The Buckeyes seem to be surging at this point in the season and J.T. Barrett is starting to come into his own at quarterback. Illinois did just upset Minnesota, but no way the Illini have a chance against the Buckeyes in Ohio Stadium.

Jeremy- Ohio State 48, Illinois 17
Nick- OSU 45, Illinois 17

 
 
No. 19 LSU (7-2), IDLE
Next game- Sat, Nov 8 vs. Alabama


 
No. 15 Nebraska (7-1) vs. Purdue (3-5), 3:30pm ET, ABC/ESPN2
Line: Neb -23.5, O/U: 61.5

Purdue has been scrappy this year and played hard against teams as good as or better than the Huskers.  The 23.5-point spread seems like a lot considering the Boilermakers only lost to Notre Dame by 16, Iowa by 14, Michigan State by 14 and Minnesota by 1.  Purdue’s not going to win this game but they’ll make Nebraska work.

 
Jeremy- Nebraska 38, Purdue 20
Nick- Nebraska 38, Purdue 14

 
 
No. 18 Oklahoma (5-2) @ Iowa State (2-5), 12pm ET, FOX Sports 1
Line: OU -15.5, O/U: 61

The Sooners need to get back on track after losing two of their last three and a trip to Ames should be what the doctor ordered. Iowa State is pesky, but OU seems like it has backed itself into a wall and is ready to come out and destroy someone. This looks like that game to me. If the Sooners can limit the turnovers they should have no problem scoring early and often in this one.

Nick- OU 50, Iowa State 28
Jeremy- OU 41, ISU 24

 

No. 21 Clemson (6-2), IDLE
Next game- Thursday, Nov. 6 @ Wake Forest

 

No. 24 Duke (6-1) @ Pittsburg (4-4), 12pm ET, ESPNU/WatchESPN
Line: Pitt -3, O/U: 48.5

I honestly have not had a chance to see much of either one of these teams yet this season. Duke’s only loss comes to an average Miami team, but even an average Miami team is across the board more talented than the Blue Devils. Pittsburgh looked good to start the season but has fallen back significantly. I like the Blue Devils quarterback Anthony Boone to lead them to victory in this one and take control of the ACC Coastal.

Nick-Duke 24, Pitt 17
Jeremy- Duke 34, Pitt 20

 

Best of the Rest

 
Maryland (5-3) @ Penn State (4-3), 12pm ET, ESPN2/WatchESPN
Line: PSU -3.5, O/U: 47.5

Two teams that desperately need a win.  Penn State is coming in off three straight losses and the Terps have lost two of their last three.  I think Penn State has the defense and quarterback play to get off the schnide this weekend and win a close one against Maryland.

Jeremy- Penn State 27, Maryland 23
Nick- Penn State 24, Maryland 17


 
North Carolina (4-4) @ Miami (5-3), 12:30pm ET, GamePlan/ESPN3
Line: MIA -17, O/U: 70

This game is much more intriguing this week than it looked like it would be a few weeks ago.  Both teams are 2-2 in the conference and both teams have been playing much better the past few weeks.  Given that Miami is a home, you’d think that would be an advantage but…

Jeremy- Miami 37, UNC 31
Nick- Miami 27, UNC 24

 
 
Boston College (5-3) @ Virginia Tech (4-4), 12:30pm ET, GamePlan/ESPN3
Line: VT -3, O/U: 40.5

Until Virginia Tech fields something that resembles and offense, I just can’t bring myself to pick them… even at home.

Jeremy- Boston College 24, Virginia Tech 17
Nick- VaTech 27, BC 17

 
 
Virginia (4-4) @ Georgia Tech (6-2), 3:30pm ET, ESPNU/WatchESPN
Line: GT -3.5, O/U: 54.5

Virginia needs to stop a two game skid and with the schedule they have remaining, they need this if they have hopes of going bowling.  They play solid defense and given the way the Coastal seems to play out, the Hoos will win.

Jeremy- UVA 27, GT 24
Nick- Georgia Tech 31, UVA 21
 


Indiana (3-4) @ Michigan (3-5), 3:30pm ET, BTN
Line: Mich -7, O/U: 53.5

This line seems to hold on to some old B1G nostalgia from a time Michigan used to destroy teams like Indiana.  Times have changed and the Big House doesn’t scare anyone. 

Jeremy- Indiana 37, Michigan 30
Nick- Michigan 37, Indiana 30


 
Kentucky (5-3) @ Missouri (6-2), 4pm ET, SEC Network/WatchESPN
Line: MIZZOU -6.5, O/U: 47.5

Kentucky gets bowl eligible with a win.  Mizzou stays alive in race for the West. 

Jeremy- Kentucky 35, Mizzou 31
Nick- Kentucky 34, Mizzou 33


 
Tennessee (3-5) @ South Carolina (4-4), 7:30pm ET, SEC Network/WatchESPN
Line: SCAR -6, O/U: 56

Neither team is in the mix for the conference but both teams still have bowl aspirations.  There’s a good chance that whoever loses Saturday, will be home in December.  Tennessee shocked the Gamecocks in Knoxville last year, can they do it against in Columbia?

Jeremy- Tennessee 31, South Carolina 30
Nick- Tennessee 28, S Car 27

 
 
California (4-4) @ Oregon State (4-3), 10:30pm ET, Pac-12 Network
Line: OSU -2.5, O/U: 67.5

Cal has shown significant improvement this season and a bowl berth is likely on the line here.  I like Cal and that explosive offense.

Jeremy- Cal 54, OSU 34
Nick- Cal 45, OSU 21

 
 
Wyoming (3-5) @ Fresno State (3-5), 10:45pm ET, ESPN2/WatchESPN
Line: Fres -12

This is going to be a tough one for the Cowboys. They have been hit with the injury bug this season losing their starting safety, linebacker and offensive leader Shaun Wick at running back. Fresno has not looked great this season either as both teams are struggling on offense so this should be a low scoring game. I think this one will come down to the defense that can make a big stop down the stretch of the game and I think that is the Pokes (did you expect and different).

Nick- Wyoming 24, Fresno 17
Jeremy- Wyo 23, Fresno 20

 

 

Players to Watch

Kevin Hogan, QB, Stanford
How the Stanford offense performs this week will be very key if it has a chance at upsetting Oregon in Eugene. The Cardinal defense can stop the Ducks that has been proven, but Hogan and the offense need to find a way to move the ball consistently. Hogan has ok numbers this year but the offense is 65th or higher in nearly every offensive category. He needs to help change that quickly if they are going to keep pace with the Ducks.

 
Brett Hundley, QB, UCLA
Hundley has looked very underwhelming this season and I understand he hasn’t had much line help, but he was built up as a Heisman contender and he has looked pretty average all season. This week against Arizona could be an excellent national stage for him to show that he wasn’t hype.

 
Nate Orchard, DE, Utah
Orchard is No. 2 in the country in sacks with 11 so far this season and he is the leader of the Utah defense. If Orchard and the Utes play well they could find themselves in control of the Pac 12 South.

 
Oregon’s O-line
The Ducks offensive line has been dominated by Stanford’s d-line the past few years.  This year, the line has been banged up and really cost them the game against Arizona.  If Mariota and the Ducks have a chance to beat the Cardinal today, it’s going to require this line to step up and own the line of scrimmage.

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