Week 9 Pick 6 Preview
#3 Oregon vs.
#12 UCLA, 7pm ET, ESPN
Instant
Analysis
Luck of the Ducks?
Oregon’s two biggest games so far this season come a week after Stanford
has taken the life out of their opponent (Washington and now UCLA). The Ducks offense is running as smooth
as ever ripping off 643 total yards, 332.4 rushing yards and 57.6 points per
game. Heisman frontrunner, Marcus
Mariota has been nearly flawless so far with 19 touchdown passes, nine rushing
touchdowns and zero interceptions.
But, as good as the Ducks offense has been, their defense might be among
the most underrated in the country.
They’re giving up 370 yards per game but only surrendering 17.3 points
per game and only two opponents, Washington and Washington State (Wazzou was
throwing late) have scored more than 20 on the Oregon defense.
UCLA comes in after a spirited effort on the road against
Stanford last week, but they didn’t escape without injury. The Bruins offensive line has is
battered and bruised and will likely start a mostly freshman and sophomores
against the Ducks. Add that to the
fact that they’re leading rusher, Jordan James is likely out and you get a
pretty big hole for UCLA. Hundley
struggled last week and the Bruins only mustered 10 points, a season low.
Keys to Victory
Oregon
Pressure Brett Hundley and make him beat you with his
arm. Hundley was sacked four times
last week by Stanford and with a banged up offensive line, Oregon will look to
do the same. With the injury to
running back Jordan James, UCLA has struggled to move the football and only
have 79 and 74 rushing yards the past two games, respectively. Without the threat of a ground game,
Oregon should be able to key the pass at get after Hundley.
Offensively the ducks need to just keep doing what
they’re doing. The Bruin defense
is ranked 50th in the nation giving up 149.5 ypg and the Duck’s 2nd
ranked rushing offense (332.4 ypg) should be able to exploit a suspect run
D.
UCLA
UCLA has to get a few early breaks. Mariota, who has zero picks this
season, did fumble twice last week and the Bruins will need force a few
turnovers here to have a chance.
Linebacker Anthony Barr has 11 tackles for loss this season and will
need to have a game for the ages to keep UCLA in position to win this game.
Brett Hundley has to block out the noise, stay poised and
not force plays that aren’t there.
It’s doubtful that he’ll have his top running back and he’s playing
behind a young, inexperienced offensive line, so Hundley must realize that he’s
going to get pressure. UCLA needs
to get Hundley moving, both as a runner and moving the pocket to keep a
talented Ducks defensive line at bay.
Prediction
UCLA is a solid football team but even at full strength I
don’t think they have enough firepower to keep up with this Oregon team. I expect Coach Jim Mora to have the
Bruins fired up and ready to play and I don’t think it’s unrealistic for UCLA
to be in the game late in the third quarter, but there will come a time, late
in the second half that Oregon will wear down the Bruins and pull away with the
game.
In the end, UCLA is too young and inexperienced in key
areas to go to Autzen and upset the Ducks. Oregon wins this game going away.
Our Picks
Jeremy- Oregon, 48-28
Fun Facts
UCLA and Oregon have played 65 times dating back to
1929. UCLA holds a series lead
39-26.
Oregon has won nine of the last 11 meetings between these
two schools. In that span Oregon
has outscored UCLA 332-221 (30.2-20.1).
#6 Stanford @
#25 Oregon State, 10:30pm ET, ESPN
Instant Analysis
This might be the most intriguing matchup of the Pac-12
season so far. Stanford has the
potential of a national champion but we haven’t seen it on a consistent basis
this season. They are coming off a
major win over last season’s Pac-12 South Champ, UCLA, which might be their
most impressive of the season. As
good as they can be, we’ve also seen the down side far too often. The Cardinal struggled to stop a high-powered
Washington offense, then went on the road and couldn’t find an offense against
Utah. This week, Stanford is going
up against the best passing offense in the nation in Oregon State. Sean Mannion and the Beavers are
racking up 442.1 passing yards a game and have been held to under 40 points
only twice this season.
If Stanford, who is 4-1 in conference play, has any hopes
of staying in the Pac-12 race they have to take care of business this weekend
against 4-0 Oregon State.
Keys to Victory
Stanford
Stanford has college football’s 85th ranked pass defense
and has to have its best game of the season to stop Mannion and the high
powered Oregon State offense. The
Cardinal got after Brett Hundley last week sacking him four times and picking
him off twice. Mannion’s not
mobile so if Stanford can press the pocket, get Mannion off his spot and throw
the ball before he wants, the Cardinal should be able to slow the Beaver
offense.
Offensively, Kevin Hogan needs to simply play his game-
take care of the football and take what the offense gives him. Oregon State’s pass defense is ranked
101st overall and Stanford needs to put pressure on them. Hogan will need help from his ground
game to open up the play action and keep the ball out of the hands of Mannion
and Oregon State.
Oregon State
Oregon State has lived on the pass this season and will
need to put the pressure on a struggling Stanford secondary. Mannion’s got almost 3,000 passing
yards and 29 touchdowns this season and it’s imperative for them to get out to
an early lead. If the Beavers can
get up early and force Stanford to out of their ground game the Cardinal could
be in trouble.
Defensively, Oregon State has to bottle up Stanford’s
ground game. Kevin Hogan has
struggled throwing the football at times this season and Oregon State must
force Stanford to play behind the sticks and make Kevin Hogan beat them with
his are. Given the firepower of
the two offenses, if Oregon State can turn this into a shootout, they’ll be in
good shape.
Prediction
Stanford has been a little inconsistent at times this
season but they’ve been in some battles.
Oregon State has been explosive on offense but taking a look at their
schedule it’s no wonder. The
Beavers are a solid team but they really haven’t played anyone of note so
far. This Stanford team will test
them like no one else has so far and I don’t have the faith that the Beavers
can pass this test. I think
Stanford will make life uncomfortable for Mannion and the Beavers will come
crashing back down to earth.
Our Picks
Jeremy- Stanford, 37-27
Fun Facts
These teams have met 79 times. Stanford leads the series 51-25-3.
Stanford has won the last three meetings.
Boise State @
BYU, 8pm ET, ESPN (Friday)
Instant
Analysis
This is an intriguing matchup between two of the top
non-AQ programs. Both are coming
off wins last week and both looking at this game as a feather-in-the-cap
win. Boise has won the past three
meetings between these two teams but veteran quarterback Joe Southwick is out
and Junior, Grant Hadrick will be making his first career start. In Provo against this BYU defense is a
tough environment to make your first college start and I expect the aggressive,
veteran defense of BYU to make things uncomfortable. These teams look strikingly even in the stat columns with
good balance on offense with the run and pass. Their defenses are a different story. Last week was the first time an
opponent scored more than 21 points on this BYU defense (Houston scored 46) and
if you take away Boise’s wins over FCS UT Martin (63-14) and Southern Miss
(60-7) the Broncos are surrendering almost 28 points a game. In Boise State’s only two quality
opponents this season, Washington and Fresno State, they’re 0-2. Boise will need it’s best all around
effort of the season and will need key players to step up early and often to
pull out a win this week.
Keys to Victory
BYU
Get Taysom Hill going early and often. This Boise defense has surrendered a
ton of yards this season and while they generally buckle down in the redzone,
BYU should be able to drive the field, chew up clock and keep the Bronco
offense off the field. The Cougars
had five scoring drives last week of 70 or more yards and they’ll need to do
the same against Boise.
Though Boise is starting a new quarterback this week, the
key for the Cougar defense is stopping a Bronco ground game that’s going for
224 per game and racked up 407 last week against Nevada. Slowing down Jay Ajayi and Co. on early
downs will allow Kyle Van Noy and the BYU defense to pin their ears back and
make life miserable for Hadrick.
Boise State
Boise must try to bottle up Taysom Hill and the BYU
ground game. Hill leads the
Cougars with 772 rushing yards and his ability to make plays with his feet is
the key to BYU’s attack. If Boise
can keep Hill in check and not let him break off big runs on first down they
can take advantage of inefficiency’s as a passer. Hill was sacked eight times last week and if forced to
throw, he’s a major liability. He is completing only 50% of his passes with
only nine touchdowns and eight picks.
Boise must keep Hill in front of them and tackle well in space.
Offensively it is critical that Boise gets their ground
game rolling early and often.
Taking pressure off Hadrick and allowing him a clear pocket with the
ability to play action and or run himself, will be the difference between a
chance to win the game and getting run off the field completely. BYU’s secondary has been exposed at
times this season and if Boise can allow Hadrick time to throw he could pick
this secondary apart.
Prediction
Any other year I’d go Boise State all the way. Not this year. The Broncos are in a bit of a
transition this season, the defense is down and they don’t have the same
sharpness and killer instinct as an offense. BYU is rolling and I just don’t think Boise is as good,
especially in Provo, with a quarterback making his first career start. I wouldn’t be shocked if BYU laid an
egg on Friday but I don’t think that will happen. I like BYU by about two scores.
Our Picks
Jeremy- BYU, 34-21
Nick-Boise State,
Fun Facts
Last year the Broncos set a Boise State attendance record
against BYU.
BYU is 273-161-13 against Mountain West opponents.
BYU’s Kyle Van Noy has 26 career sacks, which is second
most among active college players.
No. 10 Texas
Tech @ No. 15 Oklahoma
Instant
Analysis: I have been waiting all year for Texas Tech’s youth and
inexperience in the coaching ranks to falter at some point, but it has proven
me wrong to the tune of 7-0. The Red Raiders get their toughest test of the
year to date as they travel to Norman to take on a solid Oklahoma team. The
Sooners are coming off a pretty easy win against Kansas and are looking to get
back in the Big 12 race. Tech is going to have to handle a tough environment
and make some big plays to take down the Sooners.
Keys to
Victory:
Texas Tech: The Red Raiders have to utilize their two-quarterback
system keeping a fast, athletic Oklahoma defense off balance. Baker Mayfield
and Davis Webb have been very interchangeable so far this season as their stats
are nearly identical with both passing for 1400-plus yards and eight and 11
touchdowns, respectively. This could be Tech’s biggest advantage in this game.
If one quarterback gets hit a couple times and gets off balance it can throw
the other in and he can make plays. Both quarterbacks are going to have to find
receiver Jace Amaro who has racked up nearly 750 yards receiving this season.
If one of the two Red Raider quarterbacks can get rolling in this game they can
catch the Sooners off guard and steal a victory. The Red Raider defense is going
to need to do one major thing stop the big plays from Sooner quarterback Blake
Bell. Force Bell to throw the ball and make him beat you with his arm. We all
know what kind of runner Bell, but his arm can be suspect at times. If Tech can
force them into some early three-and-outs and have its offense spot it some
touchdowns this could be a major victory or the Raiders.
Oklahoma: As with any team in a major stadium the Sooners need to
use their home field advantage to keep the young Red Raiders off balance. The
key matchup in this game is going to be the young quarterbacks for Tech against
a very fast, athletic Sooner defense. The Oklahoma defense has played well in
all but one game this season and that was against Texas. The Sooner allowed 255
yards on the ground against Texas, but the Red Raiders are going to be looking
to eat up yards through the air. The Sooners need to stop the Tech passing
attack and not allow the quick run pass option. The Sooner defense is solid
against the pass and will slow down the Red Raider offense. Oklahoma’s offense
needs to get Blake Bell rolling and comfortable in this game. Bell needs to hit
some short quick passes early to gain some confidence that he has lost of the
past couple games, but he also needs to read the Tech defense right during the
play and use his legs to his advantage. Another key for the Sooner offense is
running backs Brennan Clay and Damien Williams who both need to help Bell
establish the ground game. Clay has rushed for nearly 500 yards and three scores
and he should be able to get behind a great offensive line and run over the
Tech defense.
I think Oklahoma will show that it is capable of winning
a Big 12 Championship this weekend taking down the surprise team of the season
so far. I think Sooners will handle the Tech passing attack and rush the ball
for 250 yards plus on their way to a seven-point victory.
Jeremy’s pick- Oklahoma, 28-27
Nick’s pick-Oklahoma, 41-34
No. 5 Missouri
vs. No. 21 South Carolina
Instant
analysis: Missouri is another team I
have been waiting to come back to earth a little bit and it has not yet. At the
beginning of the season I would have expected this to be a blowout for South
Carolina, but the way Missouri is playing lately this should be a close one.
Missouri is looking to all but wrap up the SEC East with a win in this one and
South Carolina is tying to keep their hopes of making it to Atlanta in tact. On
the field I am not sure what to think about this one, physically I think South
Carolina wins this one handily, but Mizzou has played really well against some
physical teams this season.
Keys to
victory:
Missouri: The key for Missouri is how Matty Mauk plays and handles
pressure. Mauk played excellent last weekend against a tough Florida defense,
but this week he is going against one of the best pass rushers in the country.
The Missouri offense is going to rely on running back Henry Josey and Russell
Hansbrough to run the ball effectively and keep the pressure off Mauk. Josey
and Hansbrough have combined for 11 touchdowns this season and they are going
to need to score a couple on the ground to win this game. Defensively the
Tigers need to stop quarterback Connor Shaw both through the air and on the
ground. Shaw has had a great season throwing the ball completing nearly 65
percent of his passes and only throwing one interception. The Tiger defense
needs to put pressure on him and force him into making mistakes. They cannot
allow him to get outside the pocket and make plays on the ground.
South Carolina: The Gamecocks need to apply pressure early and often to
Mauk and make sure he is uncomfortable and on his back. South Carolina needs to
utilize its tough pass rush in this one and hope that Jadaveon Clowney can get
in the backfield often. The USC defense also needs to slow down the fast paced
Mizzou offense. I think Clowney and the Gamecock defense will be able to stop
the Missouri offense and keep this game at its pace. Offensively South Carolina
needs Connor Shaw to have a huge game both running and passing. Shaw can make
things happen on the ground and through the air and he is going to need to make
big plays. Running back Mike Davis has already rushed for nearly 900 yards this
season and 10 touchdowns and will be the key for Carolina in this one. He is a
stud and should be able to run behind a solid offensive line for 100-plus yards
and two scores.
South Carolina is looking to rebound after a tough loss
to Tennessee, while Mizzou is trying to take complete control of the SEC East. Unfortunately
for the Tigers, South Carolina will make the plays to win this one and will get
back in the division race with this win.
Jeremy’s pick- Missouri, 35-34
Nick’s pick-South Carolina, 34-3
