Week 10 Top 25

RK	AP Poll	CFB Playoff Committee Poll	Jeremy	Nick
1	Mississippi State	Mississippi State	Mississippi State	Florida State
2	Florida State	Florida State	Florida State	Mississippi State
3	Alabama	Auburn	Alabama	Alabama
4	Auburn	Ole Miss	Oregon	Oregon
5	Oregon	Oregon	Auburn	TCU
6	Notre Dame	Alabama	Michigan State	Auburn
7	Ole Miss	TCU	TCU	Michigan State
8	Michigan State	Michigan State	Georgia	Ole Miss
9	Georgia	Kansas State	Ole Miss	Kansas State
10	TCU	Notre Dame	Notre Dame	Notre Dame
11	Kansas State	Georgia	Kansas State	Georgia
12	Baylor	Arizona	Arizona State	Baylor
13	Ohio State	Baylor	Baylor	Nebraska
14	Arizona	Arizona State	Nebraska	LSU
15	Arizona State	Nebraska	Ohio State	Utah
16	LSU	Ohio State	Utah	Ohio State
17	Nebraska	Utah	Arizona	Arizona State
18	Utah	Oklahoma	LSU	Arizona
19	Oklahoma	LSU	Clemson	Clemson
20	West Virginia	West Virginia	Oklahoma	West Virginia
21	East Carolina	Clemson	West Virginia	Oklahoma
22	Clemson	UCLA	Duke	Marshall
23	Marshall	East Carolina	Marshall	East Carolina
24	Duke	Duke	East Carolina	Duke
25	UCLA	Louisville	Stanford	Colorado State

Final Four

There seems to be a consensus through week nine that some combination of Mississippi State, Florida State, Alabama, Auburn and Oregon should make up the top four.  This will change significantly over the next few weeks however, as Miss. St, Alabama and Auburn all play each other.  Florida State and Oregon both get big tests this weekend (FSU @ Louisville and Oregon plays Stanford).  If I had to guess at which conferences would be represented, here’s my thought.

No. 1- SEC 1

No. 2- Undefeated ACC Champ

No. 3- 1-loss Pac-12 Champ

No. 4- 1-loss Big 12 Champ

No. 4b- SEC 2

No. 6- 1-loss B1G Champ  

Overrated

Arizona

I realize this is a one-loss team and they’re only ranked 14 and 15, respectively, in the polls but I have a hard time taking this team seriously as a Pac-12 threat.  They beat Oregon and despite injury, I’m not going to take that away from them but a being on the wrong side of a hail-mary and this is a two loss team that’s face little in the way of competition this year.  With trips to UCLA and Utah and home games against Washington and ASU still to come, I think Arizona will show their true colors (drop) or surprise me and contend for the South.

Ohio State

The loss to VaTech was bad when it happened in week two and each week and subsequent Hokie loss, it looks even worse.  But, the Buckeyes did start to generate some excitement over the last month.  In their four games between Virginia Tech and Penn State they outscored their opponents by an average of 56-17.  Those number look impressive and they are but looking at their performance against top level defenses- VaTech and Penn State and the Buckeyes look a little less impressive.  In Urban Meyer’s two seasons in Columbus, the Buckeyes have a history of dominating lesser opponents and then folding against top competition.  I’ll buy in on OSU if they can travel to East Lansing and get a win at Michigan State.

UCLA

The fact that this UCLA team is ranked is a little unbelievable to me.  All they’ve done this season (except for a fluke against ASU) is disappoint.  They are 6-2 but are coming off an overtime win at Colorado (they needed OVERTIME to beat COLORADO) and their remaining four games are against Arizona, at Washington and home against USC and Stanford.  That 6-2 could quickly turn into 7-5 or 6-6.

Underrated

Clemson

I really like this Clemson team and they’ve been able to hold it together the past few weeks, despite the loss of starting quarterback, Deshaun Watson.  I’m not sure if I’d take them over the two-loss teams ranked ahead of them (No. 16 LSU, No. 19 OU, No. 20 WVU) without their star quarterback, but when Watson returns, look out.  This team has a high ceiling.

Arizona State

ASU has overcome a lot this season to get where they’re at.  The Sun Devils lost nine defensive starters from last year’s team and starting quarterback, Taylor Kelly went down in week three at Colorado.  After a fluky loss to UCLA, ASU has won on the road at USC and Washington and beaten Stanford.  With the return of Kelly and the continued improvement on defense, ASU is a real threat in the South and could have an impact on the Playoff picture.

Georgia

I really like this Georgia team and they seem to be hitting their stride.  Freshman, Nick Chubb has carried the load for the offense while the Todd Gurley situation sorts itself out and defensively, they seem to be getting more and more comfortable in Jeremy Pruitt’s system.  I’m not worried about the 32 they gave up to Arkansas as they were up 38-6 at halftime- the game was out of reach.  

Bubble Watch

I wanted to take the bubble watch in a little different direction this week and look at teams on the playoff bubble instead of the top 25 bubble.

Mississippi State/ Alabama/ Auburn/ Ole Miss/ Georgia

This is going to get interesting and I’ve got each of these teams on the bubble because they all play each other (if Georgia wins the East).  Below is the remaining SEC schedule for each team

MSU- Ark, @Bama, Vandy, @Ole Miss

Alabama- @LSU, MSU, Aub

Auburn- S. Carolina, @Ole Miss, TAMU, @UGA, @Bama

Ole Miss- Aub, @Ark, MSU

Georgia- UF, @Ken, Aub

As you can see, the SEC is going to get crazy over the next few weeks.  Auburn probably has the toughest path as they already have a loss to Mississippi State and go on the road to Ole Miss, Georgia and Alabama.  Miss State’s will get major tests on the road at Alabama and in the Egg Bowl against the Rebels. 

Get to know your SEC tie-breakers because a month from now, we’re going to need ‘em!

Oregon

I think if the playoff started today, it would be hard to keep Oregon out.  Given the injuries they’d sustained along the offensive line, you can look past the loss to Arizona.  The Ducks have solid wins over Michigan State, UCLA and Washington and they seem to be getting healthy at the right time.  With the loss to Arizona, Oregon has no wiggle room and will have to be sharp and, I think, dominant against their remaining opponents.  Their next two games (Stanford and at Utah) will likely determine if the Ducks are a playoff team or not.

Notre Dame

Right now the Irish are sitting at No. 6 in the AP and No. 7 in the Coaches Poll.  At 6-1, Notre Dame is in a one-week season every week.  If the playoff started today, they’d certainly just miss the cut but they have a chance to work their way into the mix if they can gather road wins at ASU and USC and take care of business against Northwestern and Louisville. 

Michigan State

Michigan State’s playoff hope come down to their November 8 matchup against Ohio State.  If they beat the Buckeye’s and then win out against Maryland, Rutgers, Penn State and go on to win beat the B1G West champ, the Spartans will be hard to overlook. 

Week 8 Preview and Players To Watch

Week 8 Previews

Top 25 vs. Top 25

No. 2 Florida State (6-0) vs. No. 5 Notre Dame (6-0), 8pm ET, ABC/WatchESPN

Line: FSU -9, O/U: 57.5

This is a season defining game for both teams and the loser is likely out of the playoff hunt.  FSU has had its share of off-field distractions but week in and week out they seem to shut it out and win football games.  Jameis Winston and the FSU offense will face plenty of pressure from the Notre Dame defense and the Irish’s ability to get home will likely make the difference in the game.  Winston has traditionally be good against the blitz but their offensive line has under-performed this season. 

For the Irish, quarterback Everett Golson is the key.  He must play his best game of the season for Notre Dame to have a chance.  He’s turned the football over at an alarming rate the past few weeks and is facing an FSU defense that has started to force more turnovers in their last few games. 

In the end, I think FSU wins a close game on the arm of their Heisman winning quarterback, Jameis Winston.

Jeremy- Florida State 37, Notre Dame 31

Nick-Florida State 48, Notre Dame 31

No. 7 Alabama (5-1) vs. No. 21 Texas A&M (5-2), 3:30pm ET, CBS

Line: BAMA -14, O/U: 63.5

Someone will stop the slide this week.  A&M has lost two straight and the holes seem to be growing in what once looked like a promising season.  Alabama lost two weeks ago to Ole Miss and the win against Arkansas last week felt like a loss.  This is a winnable game for the Aggies.  Nick Saban and the Alabama defense has struggled against Kevin Sumlin the past two season and the way ‘Bama’s playing it’s not crazy to think A&M can pull it out.  This game will be a lot closer than the 14-point spread and you could see eye-popping scoring numbers.

Jeremy- Alabama 41, TA&M 37

Nick-Alabama 48, Texas A&M 42

No. 11 Oklahoma (5-1) vs. No. 14 Kansas State (4-1), 12pm ET, ESPN/WatchESPN

Line: OU -7, O/U: 55

High-stakes in the Big12 here as the winner stays alive in the conference and the loser is likely out.  Oklahoma has been outplayed the last two weeks (lost to TCU and was outplayed in a win over Texas) and quarterback Trevor Knight has been pretty shaky.  Kansas State is coming off a bye week and will give OU a run.  If this game was in Manhattan, KSU is the pick.  It’s in Norman and Bob Stoops doesn’t lose at home.

Jeremy- Oklahoma 24, Kansas State 21

Nick-Oklahoma 30, Kansas State 31

No. 12 TCU (4-1) vs. No 15 Oklahoma State (5-1), 4pm ET, FOX Sports 1

Line: TCU -10, O/U: 62

Another great game from the Big 12 this weekend.  TCU had Baylor beat last week, but unraveled in the final 10 minutes and lost a heartbreaker.  This team is extremely dangerous averaging 45.8 points per game on offense and last week aside have been really solid defensively.  OK State has been a bit Jekyll and Hyde, nearly knocking off FSU in week one but has struggled against the bottom three teams of the Big 12 the past three games.  Despite the heartbreaking loss last week, I think TCU comes out firing and smokes the Pokes.

Jeremy- TCU 38, Oklahoma State 20

Nick-TCU 45, Oklahoma State 34

No. 17 Arizona State (4-1) vs. No. 23 Stanford (4-2), 10:30pm ET, ESPN/WatchESPN

Line: STAN -4, O/U: 53

It’s not always pretty for Stanford but they’ve got ASU’s number, whether they’re home or in the desert.  Stanford has the best defense in the nation and the offense is coming off its best performance of the season.  ASU has the 92^nd ranked scoring defense (31.4ppg) and Kevin Hogan and the Cardinal go in and get it done.

Jeremy- Stanford 30, ASU 20

Nick- Stanford 24, Arizona State 21

Upset Alert

No. 9 Oregon (5-1) vs. Washington (5-1), 8pm ET, FOX Sports 1

Line: UO -21, O/U: 65

Oregon has won the last 10 games in this series and in the six games they’ve won at home, their average margin of victory over UW is 28.5 points.  Couple that with the fact that they’re coming off a decisive win over UCLA and things look bleak for the Huskies on Saturday.  That said, Oregon’s offensive line is still unsettled and Washington has one of the best front-seven’s in the country.  I like this UW team and I’m taking them in the upset.

Jeremy- Washington 27, Oregon 24

Nick-Washington 35, Oregon 33

No. 24 Clemson (4-2) @ Boston College (4-2), 3:30pm ET, ESPNU/WatchESPN

Line: CLEM -4.5, O/U: 44.5

Clemson is coming off a physical, last second win over Louisville in which they lost their starting quarterback, Deshaun Watson and travel to an equally physical opponent in BC.  I think the Tigers do just enough to win but don’t be surprised if BC pulls off another ridiculous upset at home (ask USC what it’s like to play there coming off an emotional win).

Jeremy- Clemson 27, Boston College 17

Nick- Clemson 45, BC 20

No. 4 Baylor (6-0) @ West Virginia (4-2), 12pm ET, FOX Sports 1

Line: BAY -8, O/U: 80.5

No one wants to go to West Virginia and they especially don’t want to go on the heels of a knockdown, drag out, last second win the week before.  Will Baylor be able to put last week’s emotional win the in the past or will it carry over and cost them in Morgantown against a dangerous West Virginia team?  The Bears have been much less impressive on the road…

Jeremy- Baylor 41, WV 27

Nick-Baylor 70, West Virginia 56

Top 25

No. 1 Mississippi State (6-0), IDLE

Next game- Sat, Oct. 25 @ Kentucky

No. 3 Ole Miss (6-0) vs. Tennessee (3-3), 7pm ET, ESPN/WatchESPN

Line: MISS -17, O/U: 46.5

Tennessee is a nice story and I keep waiting to Ole Miss to start acting like Ole Miss again but I don’t think it will be this week.  The Rebel defense will be too much for a bad Tennessee offensive line.  Look out Justin Worley, ish is about to get real.

Jeremy- Ole Miss 35, Tennessee 17

Nick-Ole Miss 31, Tennessee 17

No. 6 Auburn (5-1), IDLE

Next game- Sat, Oct 25 vs. South Carolina

No. 8 Michigan State (5-1) @ Indiana (3-3), 3:30pm ET, ESPN/WatchESPN

Line: MSU -17, O/U: 59.5

Indiana has a nice offense but their defense might be the worst in college football.  Michigan State has a solid defense and a solid offense.  Michigan State wins big.

Jeremy- Michigan State 45, Indiana 24

Nick-Michigan State 48, Indiana 21

No. 10 Georgia (5-1) @ Arkansas (3-3), 4pm ET, SEC Network/WatchESPN

Line: UGA -4, O/U: 54

A lot of people are calling for an upset here but I’m not ready to go there yet.  I think Georgia might be hitting their stride and Arkansas just doesn’t have enough pieces to win this game yet. 

Jeremy- Georgia 34, Arkansas 21

Nick-Georgia 31, Arkansas 24

No. 13 Ohio State (4-1) vs. Rutgers (5-1), 3:30pm ET, ABC/ESPN2

Line: OSU -22, 63

The Buckeyes dropped off the college football radar after their loss to Virginia Tech but have quietly beat their last three opponents by a combined score of 168-52.  Rutgers is improved and they’ve gotten solid play from quarterback, Gary Nova but I think Ohio State makes a statement this week and reminds us all that they’re still a national power.

Jeremy- Ohio State 44, Rutgers 23

Nick-Ohio State 56, Rutgers 24

No. 16 Arizona (5-1), IDLE

Next game- Sat, Oct 25 @ Washington State

No. 18 East Carolina (5-1), IDLE

Next game- Thu, Oct 23 vs. UCONN

No. 19 Nebraska (5-1) @ Northwestern (3-3), 7:30pm ET, BTN

Line: NEB -7, O/U: 52

Both teams are coming off losses and Northwestern seems woefully outmatched here.  Ameer Abdullah and the Huskers should have no problems running over the Wildcats… but then again it is Nebraska, so who knows.

Jeremy- Nebraska 33, Northwestern 21

Nick-Nebraska 35, Northwestern 34

No. 20 Utah 29, Oregon State 23, 2OT

No. 22 USC (4-2) vs. Colorado (2-4), 6pm ET, Pac-12 Network

Line: USC -21, O/U: 62

USC is like a box of chocolates.  You never know what you’re going to get.  There’s nothing about Colorado that says they should even have a prayer in this game, except for the fact that they’re playing USC.  Well, SC is at home and I think they’ll take care of the Buffs.

Jeremy- USC 45, Colorado 14

Nick-USC 48, Colorado 20

No. 25 Marshall (6-0) @ FIU (3-4), 6pm ET

Line: MARSH -23, O/U: 56.5

Rakeem Cato and the Herd will do what they do against C-USA opponents- win 40-something to 20-something.

Jeremy- Marshall 47, FIU 17

Nick-Marshall 56, FIU 13

Best of the Rest

San Jose State (2-3) @ Wyoming (3-3), 4pm ET, ESPN3

Line: SJSU -1.5, O/U: 46.5

The battle between to hopeful bowl teams.  Wyoming is coming off a tough loss at Hawaii last week and missing their starting running back.  San Jose is coming off a win over conference foe, UNLV.  The Trojans have been dreadful at home so I’m banking on some high-altitude, home magic for the Pokes.

Jeremy- Wyoming 23, SJSU 20

Nick-WYO 24, San Jose State 17

Kentucky (5-1) @ LSU (5-2), 7:30pm ET, SEC Network/WatchESPN

Line: LSU -10, O/U: 53

This might be one of the biggest head scratchers of the season and if LSU wasn’t at home, I don’t see how they’d be favored by 10.  Kentucky has a real shot a win here.  They play solid defense and the offense has moved the football against other SEC opponents.  I like Kentucky with a big upset here.

Jeremy- Kentucky 24, LSU 21

Nick-LSU 31, Kentucky 30

Virginia (4-2) @ Duke (5-1), 12:30pm ET, GamePlan/ESPN3

Line: Duke -3, O/U: 51

The winner of the ACC Coastal might just be the team that wins this game.  The Hoos play really solid defense but I’m not sure they’ll have enough against a well-coached, sneaky-talented Duke team.  Duke wins, but its close.

Jeremy- Duke 27, UVA 23

Nick-Virginia 28, Duke 27

UCLA (4-2) @ Cal (4-2), 3:30pm ET, ABC/ESPN2

Line: UCLA -6.5, O/U: 73.5

UCLA’s season might just be determined against Cal this weekend.  Do they pull themselves up by their bootstraps or fall apart and give the season away.  Cal’s capable of putting up big numbers and if UCLA gets down early lookout.

Jeremy- UCLA 41, Cal 38

Nick-UCLA 56, Cal 53

Missouri (4-2) @ Florida (3-2), 7pm ET, ESPN2/WatchESPN

Line: UF -5.5, O/U: 46.5

Florida’s season and Will Muschamp’s job are pretty much on the line here.  Missouri’s coming off a bad loss, at home to Georgia, but it’s hard to see them playing that poorly two weeks in a row.  That said, their last three games have been a 4-point loss to Indiana, a 1-point win at South Carolina and that blowout at home against Georgia 34-0.  Florida’s been equally unimpressive but I expect them to rise up and defend the Swamp.

Jeremy- Florida 28, Missouri 20

Nick-Florida 24, Missouri 17

Utah State (4-2) @ Colorado State (5-1), 7pm ET, CBS Sports Network

Line: CUS -5.5, O/U: 54.5

This game could go a long win in determining the Mountain division of the Mountain West Conference.  Utah State has played well the last two weeks after losing Chuckie Keeton but CSU is a tough, well-coached football team. 

Jeremy- CSU 30, USU 27

Nick-CSU 35, SUS 28

Kansas (2-4) @ Texas Tech (2-4), 3:30pm ET

Line: TTU -13, O/U: 58.5

Hey, someone’s getting a much needed Big 12 win. 

Jeremy- TTU 34, Kansas 24

Nick-Texas Tech 48, Kansas 17

Players to Watch

Jameis Winston, QB, FSU

This is the biggest game of the season for the ‘Noles and while they’ve faced good teams already this season, this might be their biggest challenge to date.  Winston will face pressure from a blitz-happy Irish defense and he’ll need his line to be sharp and his young receivers to get open.  In the end, however, it will again come down to Jameis blocking out the noise and playing at a high level.

Everett Golson, QB, ND

Like Winston, Notre Dame’s success depends on Golson’s ability to make plays against a underperforming be dangerous FSU defense.  Golson has turned the ball over nine times (4 INT’s and 5 fumbles) in the last three games and that cannot happen on Saturday.  Facing an athletic, but young FSU front seven, Golson will likely have running lanes and it’s important he sets the tone early, that he’ll get out of the pocket and make plays with his feet. 

Shaq Thompson, LB/RB, UW

Shaq Thompson might be Washington’s best offensive weapon.  After all, he has scored four touchdowns this season… on defense.  The Washington front seven will be key against a shaky Oregon offensive line and Thompson and Co.’s ability to force turnovers will be the difference between a blowout loss or a potential win.  Don’t be surprised to see the Jack-of-all-trades Thompson line up on offense as well.  UW is going to need to reach deep into their bag of tricks in Autzen.

Kevin Hogan, QB, Stanford

Kevin Hogan had his best game of the season last week against another poor Pac-12 defense (WSU) and he’s going against another this week at ASU.  The Sun Devil offense will score some points, so Stanford is going to need Hogan and the offense to build on the momentum they’ve built.