Week 12 Preview

Week 12 Preview

Top 25 vs. Top 25

No. 1 Mississippi State (9-0, 5-0 SEC) @ No. 5 Alabama (8-1, 5-1 SEC), 3:30pm ET, CBS

Line: Ala -8, O/U: 52

This is the game of the week, no doubt.  Mississippi State hasn’t beaten the Tide since Nick Saban’s first season in Tuscaloosa and they haven’t scored more than 10 points against Alabama in the Dan Mullen era.  This season, however marks the first time Mullen comes in with a legit threat at the quarterback position.  Dak Prescott is of the Cam Newton, Johnny Manziel mold and is a threat as a passer and can be just as dangerous if the play breaks down (779 rushing yards and 11 rushing TD’s) and it’s just the type of player that’s given Saban and Co. fits in the past.  Prescott has been a bit up and down lately and has shown a tendency to turn the football over with six turnovers against his last three SEC opponents.  The Bulldogs have a physical ground game, led by bowling-ball Josh Robinson (984 rushing yards) but really lack a true threat in the passing game.

At times this season, Alabama has looked like the most dominant team in the nation (see wins over Florida 42-21 and Texas A&M 59-0) and a vulnerable, work-in-progress (see 23-17 loss to Ole Miss and 14-13 win over Arkansas).  The Tide have been their own worst enemy at times with turnovers and untimely penalties but when they’re firing on all cylinders they are unstoppable.  Quarterback Blake Sims has been much sharper at home this season and the friendly confines of Bryant-Denny will make a huge difference here.  The combination of Yeldon and Henry in the backfield, should keep the Mississippi State defense honest and Amari Cooper can take advantage of an overmatched secondary.

It’s time for Mississippi State to come back to earth.  They’re a solid football team and should still finish with at least 10 wins but they just can’t keep it up can they?

Jeremy- Alabama 34, Mississippi State 24

Nick-Alabama 31, Mississippi State 28

No. 8 Ohio State (8-1, 5-0 B1G) @ No. 25 Minnesota (7-2, 4-1 B1G), 12pm ET, ABC/WatchESPN

Line: OSU -12, O/U: 56.5

Can Ohio State continue its run of dominance and keep its playoff hopes alive? JT Barrett has filled in for Braxton Miller really well and that combined with the Buckeyes solid defense Ohio State looks like it has rebounded well.

The Buckeyes have scored 49-plus points in six of their last seven games, while rolling up nearly 600 yards of total offense on a good Michigan State team. The Buckeyes offense is rolling along this season and looks like it cannot be stopped. Barrett has tossed 26 touchdowns and thrown for nearly 2200 yards, but it is the Buckeye running game that has really moved this offense. Running back Ezekiel Elliot and Barrett have combined to rush for 1,500 yards and 15 scores. If Ohio State can control the ground game and keep the Minnesota offense on the field this game should be a run away.

Minnesota also has a good rushing attack averaging 225 yards per game. David Cobb is a beast and has run for 1,200 yards this season and eight scores. If the Gophers are going to win this game they are going to need Cobb to get big holes to start the game and play ball control. The Minnesota defense is going to have its hands full with Barrett and Elliot, but if its offense can help it out a little bit it is only allowing 21 points a game and if it allows more than that watch out the Buckeyes could pile on the yards.

Nick-Ohio State 45, Minnesota 20

Jeremy- Ohio State 37, Minnesota 23

No. 9 Auburn (7-2, 4-2 SEC) @ No. 15 Georgia (7-2, 5-2 SEC), 7:15pm ET, ESPN/WatchESPN

Line: UGA -2.5, O/U: 68.5

Tough game to call.  Auburn has looked very mortal in the four games since their 41-7 shellacking of LSU, with a loss at Miss St, narrow wins over South Carolina and at Ole Miss and lost a heartbreaker last week to Texas A&M.  The Tigers get a Georgia team that is completely unpredictable but the return of Todd Gurley makes this road trip that much more difficult.

The Bulldogs have one of the nation’s best rushing attacks and actually averages more yards per rush than Auburn (6.17 to 5.93) and have more rushing touchdowns.  With Gurley out due to suspension, freshman Nick Chubb stepped in nicely, running for 669 yards and five touchdowns over the four game Gurley was out.  Gurley’s return should give the ground game an even bigger boost and the combo of Gurley and Chubb, with Sony Michel mixed in will be unstoppable.  The potent ground game eases the pressure on Hutson Mason and the passing game, who simply needs to protect the football and complete enough passes to keep defenses honest.

This game could see a record set for rushing yards in a game as both teams both run the ball exceptionally well and are equally challenged at stopping the run.  The X-factor in this game will be at the quarterback position and it won’t just come down to who makes plays in the passing game but who protects the football better.  Neither quarterback throws many interceptions but Nick Marshall has had fumble issues at times.

The Bulldogs have been solid at home and this will be their first true home game since October, 4th.  If the good Georgia Bulldogs show up, I think they control this game and get the win.  However, few teams are capable of looked as unprepared and unmotivated than Georgia so flip a coin.  Ultimately, I think the ground games and defenses are a push, but I like Nick Marshall and Gus Malzahn better than Mason and Richt.

Jeremy- Auburn 37, Georgia 34

Nick-Georgia 35, Auburn 34

No. 16 Nebraska (8-1, 4-1 B1G) @ No. 20 Wisconsin (7-2, 4-1 B1G), 3:30pm ET, ABC/WatchESPN

Line: WIS -6.5, O/U: 57

If you like to see the best running backs in the country this game is for you. Wisconsin’s Melvin Gordon is leading the country in rushing yards with 1,501 yards and 19 scores. Nebraska will counter MelGor with Ameer Abdullah who is fifth in the country in rushing yards with 1,250 yards and 17 touchdowns. This game will ultimately come down to which running back has the better game, but it is going to be up to each team’s defense to slow down the opposite running back. That is a tall task to stop All-American and NFL caliber running backs.

These teams are totally complementary of each other and it is almost impossible to talk about one teams stats without the other teams being exactly the same. Both teams are top 10 in rushing yards and top 20 in points against. I expect this game to be a steady diet of Abdullah and Gordon with each back rolling up more than 150 yards and a couple scores. I expect Nebraska’s quarterback Tommy Armstrong Jr., to make a big play down the stretch to win this game for the Huskers.

Look for this game to be extremely close staying within one score throughout. I like the Huskers to win this one close, but I wouldn’t be surprised to see Wisconsin come out with a close win too.

Nick-Nebraska 31, Wisconsin 30

Jeremy- Wisconsin 30, Nebraska 27

Upset Alert

No. 3 Florida State (9-0, 6-0 ACC) @ Miami (6-3, 3-2 ACC), 8pm ET, ABC/WatchESPN

Line: FSU -3, O/U: 61.5

I know we put this one on upset alert but I just don’t see it. I think the Canes will keep this one close for the first three quarters but in typical 2014 Florida State fashion it will wake up in the fourth quarter and pull away from Miami. My other thought about this game is it is time for the ‘Noles to have a breakout game and they are going to run away from the Canes. Everytime Florida State looks like it is on the ropes Jamies Winston or the Nole defense comes up with a big play and opens the game up. I like Florida State to pull away in this game as they have scored 30 or more points in eight of nine games this season and Miami has struggled against good defenses like Louisville, Nebraska and Georgia Tech. Florida State wins this game going away.

Jeremy- Florida State 34, Miami 27

Nick-Florida State 41, Miami 24

No. 14 Arizona (7-2, 4-2 Pac-12) vs. Washington (6-4, 2-4 Pac-12), 3:30pm ET, FOX

Line: ARIZ -9, O/U: 60

I’ve been picking Washington all season long and I think I’m finally finished.  This is a terrible matchup for the Huskies whose secondary is a complete mess and they just don’t have the offense to keep up with an Arizona team averaging just over 36 points per game.  Anu Solomon and his talented group of receivers might struggle early against the Washington pass rush but they’ll run away late… Unless Shaq Thompson has some magic up his sleeve.

Jeremy- Arizona 33, Washington 24

Nick-Arizona 35, Washington 27

No. 17 LSU (7-3, 3-3 SEC) @ Arkansas (4-5, 0-5 SEC), 8pm ET, ESPN2/WatchESPN

Line: ARK -1.5, O/U: 47.5

LSU has been so up and down this season that I could season it falling to Arkansas. The Razorbacks are a hard nosed team that will run the ball almost to a fault. LSU is coming off a tough loss to Bama and a big win against Ole Miss. Which LSU team shows up in this one will be interesting. If the LSU team of the last two weeks shows up the Tigers should be able to handle the Hogs pretty well in this one, but if the young and inconsistent LSU team shows up in this one look out Arkansas could put the major upset. I like LSU to control this game with the ground attack and keep this one very low scoring.

Jeremy- LSU 27, Arkansas 23

Nick-LSU 13, Arkansas 9

Top 25

No. 2 Oregon, IDLE

Next game- Sat, Nov 22. vs. Colorado

No. 4 TCU (8-1, 5-1 Big 12) @ Kansas (3-6, 1-5 Big 12), 3pm ET, FOX Sports 1

Line: TCU -28.5, O/U: 58

Nice recovery week for TCU.  They’ve got a road trip to Texas on deck, so expect a vanilla game plan for the Horned Frogs and an unimpressive, but easy win.

Jeremy- TCU 41, Kansas 20

Nick-TCU 52, Kansas 17

No. 6 Arizona State (8-1, 5-1 Pac-12) @ Oregon State (4-5, 1-5 Pac-12), 10:45pm ET, ESPN/WatchESPN

Line: ASU -9, O/U: 61.5

I know Arizona State has some very big wins this season, but I am still not totally sold on them. The Devils should have no problem with the Beavers this weekend and Wazoo next weekend, setting up a major showdown the last week of the season against Arizona.

Jeremy- ASU 31, OSU 23

Nick- ASU 45, OSU 27

No. 7 Baylor, IDLE

Next game- Sat, Nov. 22 vs. Oklahoma State

No. 10 Ole Miss, IDLE

Next game- Sat, Nov. 22 @ Arkansas

No. 11 UCLA, IDLE

Next game- Sat, Nov. 22 vs. USC

No. 12 Michigan State (7-2, 4-1 B1G) @ Maryland (6-3, 3-2 B1G), 8pm ET, BTN

Line: MSU -12, O/U: 59.5

I’m looking for a big bounce back game for Michigan State after a bad loss to Ohio State last week.  The Spartans have made a living beating up on underwhelming Big Ten teams and should have no trouble beating Maryland who’s without their best playmaker, Stefon Diggs.

Jeremy- Michigan State 42, Maryland 23

Nick- Michigan State 38, Maryland 20

No. 13 Kansas State, IDLE

Next game- Thurs, Nov. 20 @ West Virginia

No. 18 Notre Dame (7-2) vs. Northwestern (3-6), 3:30pm ET, NBC

Line: ND -18, O/U: 50.5

Notre Dame needs a major bounce back game and a pitiful Northwestern offense is just what Touchdown Jesus ordered. The Irish defense should have a field day with the NU offense that is averaging only 18 points per game. I like Notre Dame to run away at home in this one.

Nick-Notre Dame 45, Northwestern 14

Jeremy- Notre Dame 37, N’Western 17

No. 19 Clemson (7-2, 6-1 ACC) @ No. 22 Georgia Tech (8-2, 5-2 ACC), 12pm ET, ESPN/WatchESPN

Line: CLEM -3, O/U: 60

I like Clemson here, especially with the presumed return of quarterback Deshaun Watson.  The Georgia Tech defense will give up some points and Clemson has shown to be an explosive offense with Watson.  On the defensive side, Clemson has the second best yards per attempt defense in the country, allowing only 2.67ypc and is giving up only 90.9ypg.  They should be able to win the line of scrimmage and disrupt the triple-option.  I like GT to keep it close for most of the game but Clemson will open it up and run away late.

Jeremy- Clemson 37, GT 24

Nick-Georgia Tech 27, Clemson 24

No. 21 Duke (8-1, 4-1 ACC) vs. Virginia Tech (4-5, 1-4 ACC), 12pm ET, ESPNU/WatchESPN

Line: Duke -4.5, O/U: 47.5

I like Duke to handle Virginia Tech in this game. The Blue Devils are on track for their second-consecutive ACC Atlantic title and Tech has been way too inconsistent to stop a talented Anthony Boone and the Duke offense. Tech keep this one close but I think the Devils come away with a double-digit win here.

Nick-Duke 30, Va Tech 20

Jeremy- Duke 23, Virginia Tech 17

No. 23 Utah (6-3, 3-3 Pac-12) @ Stanford (5-4, 3-3 Pac-12), 6pm ET, Pac-12 Network

Line: Stan -7, O/U: 43

This game looks like a coin-flip and I have a hard time buying Stanford as a 7-point favorite.  Utah has losses by 1-point to Wazzou, 3-points in OT to ASU and lost a game that was much closer than the score indicated to Oregon last week.  Stanford is also coming off a blow-out loss to Oregon but got a bye week to refocus and hopefully get some guys healthy.  This will be an anti-Pac-12 game, with a lot of run and play-action and the winner will likely be the team that wins the turnover battle and can get a play or two on special teams.  Stanford has yet to beat a real quality opponent and Utah has wins over Michigan and UCLA on the road.

Jeremy- Utah 23, Stanford 20

Nick-Stanford 24, Utah 21

No. 24 Texas A&M (7-3, 3-3 SEC) vs. Missouri (7-2, 4-1 SEC), 7:30pm ET, SEC Network/WatchESPN

Line: TAMU -4, O/U: 58.5

I have no idea which way to go on this game. Both of these teams have been so up and down this season that you never know which team is going to show up. I like Missouri better in this one since it is at home and has played better in SEC play. Mizzou wins a close one here.

Nick-Mizzou 34, Texas A&M 27

Jeremy-Texas A&M 38, Mizzou 35

Best of the Rest

USC 38, Cal 30

Line: USC -14.5, O/U: 71.5

The Trojans were dominant early, jumping out to a 31-9 halftime lead.  The Bears fought in the second half, scoring 21-points but the Trojans were just too much for Cal.  In the game, receiver Nelson Agholor lit up the night with 16 catches for 216 yards and two scores.

Cincinnati 54, East Carolina 46

Line: ECU -3, O/U: 68

Despite the weather, ECU and Cincy battled back and forth in an aired out, high-scoring game that brought us 1,158 total yards of offense.  ECU took a 46-45 lead late, but the Bearcats come back and scored the go-ahead field goal with just seconds remaining to take the win and move into second in the AAC.

South Carolina (4-5, 2-5 SEC) @ Florida (5-3, 4-3 SEC), 12pm ET, SEC Network/WatchESPN

Line: FLA -7, O/U: 58.5

South Carolina is coming off back to back losses and losers of four of their last five.  Florida seems to be headed in the opposite direction with wins over Georgia and Vandy coming in.  The game looks like a matchup nightmare for the Gamecocks who have one of the nation’s worst defenses overall and have been especially bad against the run giving up 5.9 yards per carry- 3rd worst nationally.  Their task, stop a Florida rushing attack that’s averaging over 200 yards per game.  If the Gators get up on South Carolina, look for them to grind out a close win.  This is a must win for SC if they hope to make a bowl game so I expect Spurrier to have his team ready.

Jeremy- South Carolina 38, Florida 35

Nick-Florida 33, South Carolina 31

Pitt (4-5, 2-3 ACC) @ North Carolina (4-5, 2-3 ACC), 12:30pm ET, GamePlan/ESPN3

Line: UNC -2.5, O/U: 67.5

Pitt has given up 50+ points in back-to-back games and gets a UNC offense that is among the more explosive in the country.  The Tar Heels defense hasn’t been any better and has given up at least 40-points in five of their nine games.  Look for an ugly, defenseless, back and forth.

Jeremy- Pitt 46, UNC 43

Nick-UNC 45, Pitt 42

Nevada (6-3, 3-2 MW) @ Air Force (7-2, 3-2 MW), 2pm ET

Line: AFA -2.5, O/U: 54

I like Air Force at home here and specifically their run defense against a shaky Nevada run defense.

Jeremy- Air Force 34, Nevada 27

Nick- Air Force 27, Nevada 20

Oklahoma (6-3, 3-3 Big 12) @ Texas Tech (3-6, 1-5 Big 12), 3:30pm ET, ESPN/WatchESPN

Line:

The Sooners will get back to winning against this Tech team.

Jeremy- OU 41, TTech 24

Nick-OU 31, TTech 27

Kentucky (5-5, 2-5 SEC) @ Tennessee (4-5, 1-4 SEC), 4pm ET, SEC Network/WatchESPN

Line: Tenn -8.5, O/U: 54

One of these SEC up-and-comers will get a big win and keep bowl hopes alive.  Kentucky, after starting 5-1 has dropped four straight to SEC foes, while Tennessee is coming off a road win at South Carolina.  The Vols have played pretty well at home and seem to have something with quarterback Josh Dobbs.  I’m taking the Vols at home but don’t be surprised to see UK come in a get a win.

Jeremy- Tennessee 34, Kentucky 30

Nick-Kentucky 48, Tennessee 45

Texas (5-5, 4-3 Big 12) @ Oklahoma State (5-4, 3-3 Big 12), 7:30pm ET, FOX

Line: TEX -2.5, O/U: 48

Texas is winners of three of their last four and seem to have found a passable offense to go with a stout defense.  I like the way their playing and like them on the road to beat a free-falling OK State team.

Jeremy- Texas 27, OK State 23

Nick-Texas 21, Oklahoma State 20

Players to Watch

Duke Johnson, RB, Miami

Johnson is the best player on this Miami squad and will be one of the best players on the field on Saturday.  He’ll need a big showing in both the running game and passing game if the ‘Canes hope to beat FSU.  Duke will set the tone for Miami in this game and if he can rip off chunks in the ground game and keep the ball out of Winston’s hands Miami will beat the ‘Noles.

Dak Prescott, QB, Mississippi State

Athletic quarterbacks have given Nick Saban and Kirby Smart fits in the past and like Manziel and Newton before him, the field at Bryant-Denny has been a showcase for Heisman Trophy Winners.  If Prescott puts up a Heismanesk performance, Miss St. win.  If he struggles it all comes crashing down.

Ameer Abdullah, RB, Nebraska/Melvin Gordon, RB, Wisconsin

How about a showcase of two of college football’s best running backs squaring off?  While they won’t exactly go head-to-head, the runner with the bigger game will probably come away with the win.