Friday, September 6, 2013

Pick 6 Preview


#14 Notre Dame @ #17 Michigan, 8pm ET, ESPN

Instant Analysis

This game has been pretty electrifying the past few years and I don’t see the 2013 version being any different.  Both teams come in with high hopes for the season and a win here will propel Notre Dame or Michigan into the national spotlight and potentially, the BCS conversation.  I see Notre Dame with a slight edge on the field in this matchup with a senior quarterback in Tommy Rees and one of the best defensive fronts in the country, led by Louis Nix III.  The Wolverines are talented but I think the inexperience of quarterback Devin Gardner will show up here, especially going up against this Irish front seven.

Keys to victory

Notre Dame
Avoid turnovers.  Notre Dame has a deeper, more talented football team and as long as Rees can avoid some of the turnovers that have plagued him in the past the Irish should be okay.  Rees just needs to be efficient and get the football to his playmakers.  Defensively, the more pressure Notre Dame can put on Gardner the better.  Hit him early and often.

Michigan
Run the football and hit the play-action.  Michigan doesn’t have to run for a ton of yards, they just need to keep the Irish honest and challenge Notre Dames secondary in the play-action passing game.  Gardener is a talented kid and if they can keep him upright and keep the pressure off, Michigan will have a chance at hitting some big plays.  Defensively, Michigan needs to pressure Rees and force him to throw early and into coverage and capitalize when Rees makes an errant throw.

Fun Facts

The 2011 game at Michigan was played in front of the largest crowd in NCAA history (114,804) and was the first ever night game at Michigan Stadium.  Michigan came back from a 24-7 fourth quarter deficit and finally won 35-31.

Michigan leads the series 23-16-1

Our Picks
Jeremy- Notre Dame, 31-30
Nick- Notre Dame, 21-17

 

#6 South Carolina @ #11 Georgia, 4:30 p.m. ESPN

Instant analysis

This game has some interesting story lines...will the Dawgs get back on track after a close loss at Clemson? Will Jadaveon Clowney and the Gamecock defense live up to their billing as one of the best defenses in the country? Will Georgia be knocked out of the national title picture in week two? Will the Gamecocks knock off the Dawgs for the fourth-straight time? All of those questions should be answered in this game. Let’s start breaking this one down.  I have to give Georgia the edge in this one; it is coming off an emotionally tough loss to Clemson and has lost three-straight times to the Gamecocks. I think Georgia will win a close game on the back of Todd Gurley, with a few touchdown passes from Aaron Murray.

Keys to victory:

Georgia
The Dawgs are going to have to slow the quick and formidable Gamecock defense by running the ball to open up the passing game. The good thing for Georgia is they have arguably the best running back in the country in Gurley and if they give him the ball in steady doses he should be able to have another 100-plus yard game. Gurley can put this team on his back, but he is going to need help from Murray. Murray cannot have another game without tossing a touchdown. He is going to have to have a great game and stay off his back to help win this one. On defense Georgia needs to get to USC quarterback Connor Shaw early and often. If the UGA defense can get Shaw uncomfortable and slow the running tandem of Mike Davis and Brandon Wilds, Georgia will have its chance to win.

South Carolina
The Gamecocks keys in this game go directly to Clowney and their defense. The USC defense is going to need to shut Gurley down early and force Murray to start throwing early. That being said they cannot rely on totally shutting down Murray because he is due for a big game. If the Gamecock defense can get hot early it could shut down the Dawgs and make it tough to move the ball. On offense the Gamecocks are going to have to get Shaw comfortable early with some short throws leading to some big plays. They are also going to have to get the running game established early with Davis and Wilds. USC has to establish the run game early because Shaw and Dylan Thompson only combined for 178 passing yards against North Carolina. If the Gamecocks can run the ball effectively and shut down the high-powered Georgia offense they will come away with its fourth-straight victory over the Dawgs.

Fun facts

Georgia: The Dawgs are looking to avoid their second 0-2 start in three years after losing to Boise State and South Carolina in 2011.

South Carolina: The Gamecocks have defeated the Dawgs three-consecutive times including a 35-7 rout last season.

Our Picks
Jeremy’s- South Carolina, 34-31
Nick’s- UGA, 35-31

 

#12 Florida @ Miami, 12pm ET, ESPN

Instant Analysis

This is a great intrastate rivalry and should be an exciting matchup between Miami’s high powered, explosive offense against Florida which boasts one of the best defenses in college football.  Though the game is in Miami, the crowd should prove to be more like 50-50 as the Gators will surely pack the house.  Miami didn’t blow the doors off FAU last weekend like many people thought and quarterback Stephen Morris completed just over 50% of his passes for 160 yards.  He’ll need the best performance of his career against this Gator defense.  Florida should control the trenches on both sides of the ball and it’s going to take some big plays and a little luck for the ‘Canes to get a win.

Keys to Victory

Florida 
Florida just needs to do what they do.  Play great defense and run the football.  Jeff Driskel was efficient last week in the passing game (17-23 for 153 and 1 TD) and will need to be just good enough this week to keep the Miami defense honest.  Running back Matt Jones will return for this game and paired with Mack Brown (25 carries for 112 and 2 TD’s) and the legs of Driskel, Florida will look to run early and often against the Hurricanes.  Defensively, look for Florida to shut down Duke Johnson and the Miami ground game and focus on putting hits on Stephen Morris when he drops back to pass.

Miami 
Miami has to hit early against the Gators and play with the lead to keep running lanes open for Duke Johnson.  Jeff Driskel isn’t the type of quarterback who can throw his team back into a game so getting an early lead will be paramount for Miami.  The ‘Canes best bet is to spread the Gators out, rev up the tempo and pressure the Gator defense down field to help open lanes for Duke Johnson and the ground game. 

Fun Facts

This game has been played 54 times and the ‘Canes have a slight edge- 28-26.  Florida won the last meeting in 2008 by a score of 26-3 and went on to win the BCS Championship.

The winner of this game, played annually from 1938-1987, was once awarded The Seminole War Canoe Trophy.

Our Pick
Jeremy- Florida, 27-24
Nick’s pick- Florida, 28-24

 

#5 Stanford vs. San Jose State, 11 a.m. ET, Pac-12 Network

Instant analysis

The Cardinal finally gets the chance to get on the field and begin the defense of its Pac-12 title. Stanford comes into this season with a lot of expectation and with lots of people picking them to make the national title game. There is no doubt this team has one of the best defensive front seven’s in the country and is playing behind a vastly improving young quarterback Kevin Hogan. San Jose State was one of two Mountain West teams to win last week with a 24-0 win over Sac State. SJSU quarterback David Fales is a stud but he is going to have a major challenge on his hands in Palo Alto.

Keys to victory

Stanford
Stanford’s keys to victory in this game are pretty simple…do what you do. Play solid defense is number one. With one of the best front seven’s in the country the Cardinal needs to put early and often pressure on Fales and make is very uncomfortable. Fales did not have a huge game last week and that was against and FCS team.  Now he is playing national title caliber defense. Stanford should be able to put Fales on his back a lot and shutdown the SJSU rushing attack pretty easily. Offensively, the Cardinal needs to keep Hogan comfortable and use the rushing attack to run over the Spartans.  Stanford is breaking in new receivers, running backs and a tight end, but it is tough on the offensive line and should be able to run the ball with relative ease.  

San Jose State
This is pretty tough to find a way for the Spartans to win this one. For SJSU to have a chance Fales is going to have to go off. He is going to need to vastly improve from his 225 yards, two touchdowns and 50 percent completion percentage. Fales is going to have to put up at least four touchdowns and 300-plus yards for SJSU to even have a chance. The Spartan defense is going have to slow Hogan and the Cardinal rushing attack down to even have a chance. I don’t like the Spartans chances in this one but stranger things have happened.

Fun facts

Stanford: David Shaw is 2-0 in season openers at Stanford and the Cardinal has won five openers in a row.

San Jose State: This is the 67th meeting in this series the Spartans have won 14 games against Stanford with their last win coming in 2006. San Jose State’s new headman Ron Caragher takes his Spartans on the road for the first time in his tenure.

Our picks
Jeremy’s pick- Stanford, 34-10
Nick’s pick- Stanford 31-17

 

#15 Texas @ BYU, 7 p.m. ET, ESPN2

Instant analysis

The Longhorns look solid in their opener against New Mexico State, but will play a lot tougher defense this week as they take is trip to Provo to take on BYU. BYU has one of the toughest defenses in the country and is coming off a tough loss at Virginia and has an even better offense to deal with this week. Quarterback David Ash and the running back Jalen Overstreet should be able to lead the Longhorns to victory. BYU has a pretty average if not below average offense and the Texas defense is going to prove too fast for the Cougars.

Keys to victory

Texas
The Longhorns are going to have a lot of chances and keys to winning this game. The best thing that could happen for them is for Ash to go off for 434 total yards again and five touchdowns. Also if Overstreet can reach 100 yards in this game the Longhorns should be able to win pretty easily. Defensively Texas just needs to slow a pretty weak BYU offense. If the Longhorns hold the Cougars to less than 20 points they will win this game. I am not even sure if BYU can put the ball in the endzone three times. 

BYU
The only chance the Cougars have in this game is to completely shut down the Longhorn offense. If BYU can hold Texas to 17 or less points it will have a chance to win. The problem is this Texas offense looks a lot stronger than that. This defense is going to have make Ash uncomfortable early and shutdown Overstreet to win this one. Offensively the Cougars are going to have to hope Jamaal Williams goes off on the ground for 200-plus yards.

Fun facts

Texas: The Horns are looking for their seventh-consecutive 2-0 start.

BYU: The Cougars are looking to avoid their first 0-2 start since the 1995 season.

Our picks
Jeremy’s pick- 31-14
Nick’s pick- Texas 31-17

 

 
Wyoming vs. Idaho, 4pm ET

Instant Analysis

Each team is coming off of week 1 losses but the losses were very different.  Wyoming went to Nebraska, put up 34 points and over 600 yards and was about 30 seconds from pulling out a last second victory.  Idaho, on the other hand, got drilled, 40-6 by North Texas.  It will be interesting to see if the Cowboys have been able to put the Nebraska game behind them and are ready to refocus on the task at hand and if they are, they should have no trouble in their home opener at War Memorial Stadium.  I expect Wyoming quarterback, Brett Smith to have another big game and will likely be in the 400-500 total yard range taking on a thin, inexperienced secondary.

Keys to Victory

Wyoming
The Cowboys need to just pick up where they left off last week; keep the tempo up and let quarterback Brett Smith do his thing.  Smith accounted for 475 yards and four touchdowns last week and is the key that makes this team go.  As mentioned above, Idaho has a young, inexperienced secondary and it’s important for Coach Dave Christensen to put the ball in his best players hand and turn him loose.

Idaho
The Vandals have to try to slow the pace of the Cowboy offense and get a few three-and-outs early to keep Wyoming off balance.  The Vandals have a pretty solid defensive line and getting after Brett Smith early and often will be paramount.  Along with slowing down the Cowboy offense, Idaho must try to control the line of scrimmage and run the football.  An effective ground game will help keep the Pokes offense off the field and keep them from getting in rhythm.

Fun Facts

Wyoming won last year’s game in OT, 40-37.  War Memorial Stadium, the home of Cowboy football sits at 7,220 feet above sea level, the highest stadium in the FBS.

Dennis Erickson coached at Idaho from 1982-1985 and again in 2006.  In 1986, Erickson left Idaho to coach at… Wyoming.

Our Pick
Jeremy- Wyoming, 42-27
Nick- Wyoming, 42-28

 
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