Friday, September 27, 2013

Pick 6 Preview and the Best of the Rest

Pick 6 Preview

#6 LSU @ #9 Georgia

Instant Analysis
LSU is off to a hot start and looks like one of the most complete teams in the nation.  Quarterback Zack Mettenberger has been a force this season and he’s helped by running back Jeremy Hill and a group of dominant receivers.  Defensively, they look just as fast and aggressive as ever.  But, can they do it against the best of the SEC?  LSU has won against lesser opponents so far this season and they’ll get a real test from a battle tested Georgia team. 

The Bulldogs lost week one at Clemson, but turned around and beat a good South Carolina team at home.  Aaron Murray got off the schnide against ranked teams with the win over SC but the Bulldogs will have to play their best game of the season to get passed this LSU team and the stakes couldn’t be higher.  With UGA’s one loss, they cannot afford another.  They’re already behind the eight-ball in the BCS Championship race and a loss in conference would reopen the SEC East. 

In the end, I think the trip to Athens will be too much for Mettenberger.  I’m not sold on him yet and if he can’t control his emotions in his return to Georgia, LSU is going to struggle to move the football.  I think UGA gets the win, but it’s going to be close.

Key’s to Victory
LSU
The Tigers are going to have to score some points this week and they’ll have their opportunities against a very inexperienced Georgia defense that’s still finding its identity.  Mettenberger has been better this season but again, can he do it on the road, with SEC championship stakes on the line.  Mettenberger needs to move the football effectively and avoid turnovers, make easy throws and let receivers Odell Beckham and Jarvis Landry make plays. 

Defensively, the Tigers must get after Murray.  The Bulldogs offensive line showed signs of weakness against Clemson and LSU must exploit any opportunities to get Murray on the ground. 

Georgia
Protect the football.  Georgia posted similar yardage numbers against Clemson and South Carolina and outgained both by nearly 100 yards.  The difference?  Two turnovers against Clemson, non against South Carolina.  In Mark Richt’s three wins against LSU, the Bulldogs have 0 turnovers.  In Richt’s four losses to LSU, 10 turnovers.

Fun Facts
This is Georgia’s third opponent of the season that goes into the game ranked in the top 10 (Clemson #8, South Carolina #6, LSU #6).

LSU holds a 16-12-1 advantage and 5-4 edge when both are ranked.

Our picks-
Jeremy- Georgia, 34-33
Nick- Georgia, 42-40

 

No. 21 Ole Miss @ No. 1 Alabama

Instant Analysis:
This game should be a really good measuring stick of for both of these teams. Alabama is the big powerful two-time champs and Ole Miss is young talented and looking for a statement win to prove it is for real.

Keys to victory:
Alabama
The Tide are going to have to slow down a quick and balanced Ole Miss offense. Alabama’s defense needs to do what it has done so well this season force turnovers and disrupt this fast-paced offense. Alabama is going to have to pressure the Rebels freshman quarterback Bo Wallace. The Tide cannot let Wallace get comfortable because the Rebels big receivers could gash them like Texas A&M’s Mike Evans did. Alabama’s defense will get some early stops in this game and keep the crowd into it and make the young Rebels uncomfortable. Alabama’s offense has been a little sluggish in two games this season with one high scoring game to beat Texas A&M. This offense just needs to establish the run early and control the ball. AJ McCarron has played pretty well this season and TJ Yeldon has been a beast all season and that tandem will come alive this game and run up some points on a young Rebel defense. The Tide offensive line is still gelling but it is working the kinks out and will lead it to a win.

Ole Miss
The Rebels are going to have to start fast and not allow any turnovers. Wallace is going to need to go off and have a huge game. The Rebels need to make big plays on the outside and run the ball effectively. If the Rebels can go into Bryant-Denny and score some early points and make the Tide play from behind they could have a chance for the major upset. If this defense can slow running back TJ Yeldon and force the Bama offense to be one dimensional it could be the best thing for them. I think the Rebels are going to struggle with the strength of the Bama rushing attack. 

Fun Facts
Ole Miss is 3-0 for the first time since 1989. Alabama has won eight games in a row in this series. Ole Miss is playing in Tuscaloosa for the second-consecutive year for the first time since 1931-32. Bama is 24-7 against ranked opponents in the past six years.

Our Picks
Nick- Alabama, 37-20
Jeremy- Alabama, 34-24

 

No. 14 Oklahoma @ No. 22 Notre Dame

Instant analysis:
I think Oklahoma will return the favor to Notre Dame and go into South Bend and steal a win.

Key’s to Victory
Oklahoma
The Sooners defense is improving on a weekly basis and I think it will be up to the task in South Bend this weekend knocking Tommy Rees off balance and slowing the Irish offense. Offensively I think Blake Bell has his big game coming out party on Saturday and has a big game. Bell looks like he got the message after being beat out by Trevor Knight for the starting job. Bell will have his hands full with a solid Notre Dame d-line, but will sling the ball down field and create big plays for the Sooner offense.

Notre Dame
The Irish are going to have to pressure Blake Bell to make sure he is uncomfortable. Force a couple early sacks maybe a turnover and that could get Bell off his game early. If the Irish defense can do that and stop the big play it will hold Bell and the Sooner offense to less than three touchdowns. The Irish offense really needs to get some big plays early. Tommy Rees is going to have to allow the run game early to open up the passing game later. Rees also needs to make smart decisions and create big plays down the field without turning the ball over.

I give the Sooners an advantage in this game and think the OU defense will slow the Notre Dame offense and I think Bell and the Sooner offense will beat Notre Dame with big plays.

Fun Facts
This is the second meeting in a row these two have been ranked. Notre Dame downed Oklahoma 38-13 last season, but was the game was tied 13-13 early in the fourth quarter. This is the 10th meeting between these two storied programs Notre Dame leads 9-1.

Our picks
Nick- Oklahoma, 31-24
Jeremy- Notre Dame, 27-24

 
No. 16 Washington vs. Arizona

Instant Analysis
Washington is a quickly rising team and looks like it can make a run at a Pac 12 title. Arizona enters the game 3-0 and is also a rising team in the Pac 12. I think the Huskies are a better team and should show it in this one.

Washington
The Huskies just need to get behind quarterback Keith Price and run the points up on Arizona.  The Huskies are gaining over 600 yards a game this season which is third in the country. UW should be able to control the ball and run the score up on the Wildcats. On defense the Huskies have to stop the Arizona run because that is all the U of A has. Washington should slow down the Zona running game and be able to with this game going away.

Arizona
Run, Run, Run as fast as you can. The Wildcats need to get the ball to running back Ka’Deem Carey and he is going to have to go off for them to score enough points to win this game. If Carey can rack up some serious yards the Wildcats could have a chance. The Zona defense needs to stop Keith Price and at least slow down the offense of Washington and keep its offense in the game. I don’t think the Arizona defense is up to the task to slow down the Huskies offense.

Fun Facts
This is Arizona’s first ranked opponent of the season. The last eight meetings of this game have been very competitive with the combined scores of 258-254 Washington.

Our picks
Nicks pick- Washington, 42-24
Jeremy’s pick- Washington, 41-27

 

#4 Ohio State vs. #23 Wisconsin

Instant analysis
Ohio State gets their first real test of the season.  Wisconsin physical running game could be a bad matchup for the Buckeyes all new front seven.  The Badgers are running for 349 yards a game and they’ll need everyone to show up and play big to go into the “Shoe” and get a win.  I think the loss Wisconsin suffered against Arizona State a few weeks ago will actually benefit them on Saturday.  While the Buckeyes are coming in off four powder-puff opponents, Wisconsin has been battle tested and had it not been for a botched officiating crew, they could be 4-0 as well. 

Key’s to victory

Ohio State
They Buckeye’s must get a lead.  Whether it’s Braxton Miller or Kenny Guiton, the need to keep the pressure on Wisconsin by getting out to an early lead and force the Badgers to play from behind.  The Badgers secondary is a bit inexperienced and struggled at times against Arizona State.  The Buckeyes must take advantage of this.

Defensively, Ohio State must slow down the Wisconsin rushing attack on first down, forcing Joel Stave to keep the Badgers alive with his arm.  Stave’s completion percentage was just over 50% in their first road game.

Wisconsin
It’s pretty simple.  If the Badgers can take advantage of a young Ohio State offensive line and control the trenches, Wisconsin can pull out a road win.  The Badgers have a deep group of backs led by Melvin Gordon (624 yards and 7 TD’s) and James White (442 yards and 3 TD’s) who can pressure a defense all game long.  The Buckeye’s front seven is almost entirely new from a year ago and have yet to be tested. 

Defensively, Wisconsin must limit Braxton Miller or Kenny Guiton on the ground.  If they can bottle up either quarterback and force them to throw, they’ll have a good shot a getting a win. 

Fun Fact
Gary Anderson was Urban Meyer’s defensive coordinator at Utah in 2004.

Ohio State leads the all-time series 55-18-5.

Our picks
Jeremy- Wisconsin, 34-33
Nick- Wisconsin, 31-28

 

USC @ Arizona State

Instant Analysis
Despite all the noise coming from LA, USC is 3-1 and fully alive in the Pac-12 South.  Arizona State is 2-1 and you can argue the Wisconsin “win” all you want, at the end of the day, ASU was down early, came back and got a good win against what could be the best team in the B1G.  I realize that we’re not even to October yet and both teams have almost a full conference schedule ahead of them but a win here (especially for USC who lost to conference foe Washington State) would go a long way in the South. 

Both teams have a lot of question marks but if ASU can beat Wisconsin in the desert, they should be able to beat USC there too.  ASU gets the home edge and gets the win.

Key’s to Victory

USC
The Trojans must find some symblance of an offense against ASU.  The Sun Devils will score points and USC won’t win this one 10-7.  They don’t need to be spectacular, just complete some easy passes and get a ground game going.  Running back Trey Madden has looked pretty good through four games and if Kessler or Wittek can complete enough passes to keep the Sun Devil defense honest, the Trojans have a chance. 

Arizona State
Spread the field and keep the peddle to the metal.  USC has one of the best defenses in the nation but depth is an issue.  If ASU can keep the pace up and keep the sticks moving, the Sun Devils can ware out the Trojan defense. 

Fun Facts
ASU has lost 12 of their last 13 meetings.  However, their lone win in the span was a 2011 victory in the desert.

Our picks
Nick- ASU, 34-31
Jeremy- ASU, 30-24

 
Best of the Rest

Utah State at San Jose State, Friday, 9 ET, ESPN
Utah State played a great game against USC last weekend, the Spartans are off to a slow 1-2 start. The Aggies should go to San Jose and take down the Spartans.
Nick’s Pick: Utah State, 42-31
Jeremy’s pick- Utah State, 35-21

Wyoming @ Texas State, 7 ET, Longhorn Network
Cowboy quarterback Brett Smith is No. 2 in the country in total offense and should be able to carve up a weak Texas State secondary.
Nick’s Pick: Wyoming, 45-20
Jeremy’s pick- Wyoming, 47-17

Colorado @ Oregon State, 3 ET Pac-12 Network
The Buffs have had the week off to prepare for an Oregon State team that can score but lost of an FCS team already. CU is improved I think will go get its first road win in a long time.
Nick’s Pick: Colorado, 40-37
Jeremy’s pick- Oregon State, 41-31

SMU @ TCU, Noon ET, Fox Sports 1
Both of these teams are off to a tough start after what looked like what should be two good teams. The Frogs should be able to start getting back on track running the ball and playing defense in this one.
Nick’s Pick: TCU, 38-31
Jeremy’s pick- TCU, 27-21

Iowa @ Minnesota, 3:30 ET ABC/ESPN2
The Gophers are off to a surprising 4-0 start and Iowa looks like it is slowly improving week-by-week. I think The Gophers will use home field advantage to win this game.
Nick’s Pick: Minnesota, 28-24
Jeremy’s pick- Minnesota, 27-23

Northern Illinois @ Purdue, Noon ET, ESPN2
Northern Illinois is looking for a solid win against a B1G school. I think the Huskies should be able to go to West Lafayette and steal a win.
Nick’s Pick: Northern Illinois, 41-38
Jeremy’s pick- NIU, 35-31

Toledo @ Ball State, 3 ET, ESPN3
The Cardinals are off to a 3-1 start and could pick up another good MAC win.
Nick’s Pick, Ball State, 49-45  
Jeremy’s pick- Ball State, 42-38

Week 5 Top 25 Picks


#1 Alabama vs. #21 Ole Miss, 6:30pm ET, ESPN
Definitely a game that’s gaining traction.  Ole Miss is young and athletic with a very solid running game.  At home, can they knock off the Tide?  Going to be a tight one but ‘Bama will take care of business.
Nick’s pick- Alabama, 37-20
Jeremy’s pick- Alabama, 34-24

 
#2 Oregon vs. Cal, 10:30pm ET, Pac-12 Network
Snoozer.  Oregon will have their backups in by early 3rd quarter.
Nick’s pick- Oregon, 70-35
Jeremy’s pick- Oregon, 56-24

 
#3 Clemson vs. Wake Forest, 3:30pm ET, ESPNU
Wake can be tricky place to play but the Tigers showed last week that they can win these conference games.
Nick’s pick- Clemson, 49-31
Jeremy’s pick- Clemson, 45-14
 

#4 Ohio State vs. #23 Wisconsin, 8pm ET, ABC
How will the youth and inexperience of the Ohio State front-seven matchup with a nasty, physical running game of Wisconsin on the road?  Look out Bucky.
Nick’s pick- Wisconsin, 31-28
Jeremy’s pick- Wisconsin, 34-33

 
#5 Stanford @ Washington State, 10pm ET, ESPN
Wazzou is playing better and could keep it interesting early, especially on the Polouse. 
Nick’s pick- Stanford, 38-17
Jeremy’s pick- Stanford, 37-13

 
#6 LSU @ #9 Georgia, 3:30pm ET, CBS
Georgia, with one loss can’t afford another if they want to stay in the national title mix.  LSU looks like a contender but this will be a legit road test.
Nick’s pick- Georgia, 42-40
Jeremy’s pick- LSU, 34-33

 
#7 Louisville
IDLE, Next game, Oct. 5 @ Temple

 
#8 Florida State @ Boston College, 3:30pm ET, ABC
Boston College has looked much more competitive under Steve Addazio but FSU is just too talented.  BC will keep it close early but the ‘Noles will take care of business.
Nick’s pick- Florida State, 35-24
Jeremy’s pick- Florida State, 41-17

 
#10 Texas A&M @ Arkansas, 7pm ET, ESPN2
This is an interesting matchup for the Aggies.  Arkansas should be able to run against this A&M defense but they won’t be able to score with Manziel and this Aggie offense.
Nick’s pick- Texas A&M, 52-28
Jeremy’s pick- Texas A&M, 44-35

 
#11 Oklahoma State @ West Virginia, 12pm ET, ESPN
This is not the WVU of the past few years.  OK State will roll.
Nick’s pick- Oklahoma State, 49-35
Jeremy’s pick- Ok State, 45-17

 
#12 South Carolina @ UCF, 12pm ET, ABC
UCF is playing well and SC tends to struggle some on the road.  The Gamecocks will win but they’ll be glad to get out of Orlando.
Nick’s pick- South Carolina, 31-21
Jeremy’s pick- South Carolina, 34-31

 
#13 UCLA
IDLE, Next game, Oct. 3 @ Utah

 
#14 Oklahoma @ #22 Notre Dame, 3:30pm ET, NBC
Can Blake Bell repeat his 413 yard and 4 TD performance against a talented Irish defense?  Can they win on the road at Notre Dame?  Can the Irish up their level of play to match a Sooner team gaining momentum? 
Nick’s pick- Oklahoma 31-24
Jeremy’s pick- Notre Dame, 27-24

 
#15 Miami @ South Florida, 12pm ET, ESPNU
Miami.  That is it.  They just need to get out of this one healthy.
Nick’s pick- Miami, 48-17
Jeremy’s pick- Miami, 42-14

 
#16 Washington vs. Arizona, 7pm ET, FOX
Things are looking up for the Huskies but they’ll get a big conference test from the 3-0 Wildcats.  Huskies get the edge at home.
Nick’s pick- Washington, 42-24
Jeremy’s pick- Washington, 41-27

 
#17 Northwestern
IDLA, Next game, Oct. 5 vs. Ohio State

 
#18 Michigan
IDLE, Next game, Oct. 5 vs. Minnesota

 
#19 Baylor
IDLE, Next game, Oct. 5 vs. West Virginia

 
#20 Florida @ Kentucky, 7pm ET, ESPNU
Florida has lost two key players and it will be interesting to see how it affects this team.  Driskel is a tough loss despite his struggles but losing Dominique Easley is a huge blow.  The Gators could struggle.
Nick’s pick- Florida, 27-10
Jeremy’s pick, Florida, 24-21

 
#24 Texas Tech
IDLE, Next game, Oct. 5 @ Kansas

 
#25 Fresno State @ Hawai’i, 12am ET
The Bulldogs should enjoy some surf and sun while they sleepwalk through the Warriors. 
Nick’s pick- Fresno State, 52-24
Jeremy’s pick- Fresno, 54-17


Thanks for reading!  As always, follow us on twitter @307collegefb

Sunday, September 22, 2013

Week 5 Top 25


Rank
AP Top 25
Jeremy
Nick
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
11
12
13
14
15
16
17
18
19
20
21
22
23
24
25
Alabama 3-0
Oregon 3-0
Clemson 3-0
Ohio State 4-0
Stanford 3-0
LSU 4-0
Louisville 4-0
Florida State 3-0
Georgia 2-1
Texas A&M 3-1
Oklahoma State 3-0
South Carolina 2-1
UCLA 3-0
Oklahoma 3-0
Miami 3-0
Washington 3-0
Northwestern 4-0
Michigan 4-0
Baylor 3-0
Florida 2-1
Ole Miss 4-0
Notre Dame 3-1
Wisconsin 3-1
Texas Tech 4-0
Fresno State 3-1
Alabama
Stanford
Oregon
Clemson
LSU
Ohio State
Florida State
Texas A&M
Georgia
UCLA
South Carolina
Louisville
Washington
Oklahoma State
Oklahoma
Miami
Baylor
Michigan
Florida
Notre Dame
Northwestern
Ole Miss
Wisconsin
Georgia Tech
UCF
Alabama (1)
Stanford (2)
Clemson (3)
Oregon (4)
Ohio State (5)
LSU (6)
Florida State (7)
Georgia (8)
South Carolina (9)
Louisville (11)
Oklahoma (12)
Texas A&M (14)
Washington (16)
Oklahoma State (15)
Michigan (10)
Notre Dame (13)
UCLA (17)
Northwestern (20)
Miami (18)
Florida (19)
Baylor (21)
Ole Miss (22)
Fresno State (23)
Texas Tech (24)
Wisconsin (NR)

 

Jeremy’s Top 25 Breakdown

 
1-Alabama
2- Stanford
3- Oregon
4- Clemson
5- LSU

No changes in my top 5 from last week.  Everyone keeps winning and we’ll find out a lot about these teams in the weeks to come. 

6- Ohio State
7- Florida State
8- Texas A&M
9- Georgia
10- UCLA

Like my top 5, no changes in my 6-10 either.  Look for some changes next week, however, as Georgia hosts LSU and Ohio State gets a visit from Wisconsin

11- South Carolina
12- Louisville
13- Washington
14- Oklahoma State
15- Oklahoma

Some shuffling in my 11-15 this week with Washington moving up from No. 16 last week to No. 13 this week.  The Huskies have shown major progress under Sarkisian so far this season and I think this team has finally become what Sarkisian has worked for.  Oklahoma State and Oklahoma both move down a spot to make way for Washington.

16- Miami
17- Baylor
18- Michigan
19- Florida
20- Notre Dame

Numbers 16-20 see some movement this week as Michigan drops from No. 15 last week to No. 18 this week.  The Wolverines have looked bad two weeks in a row now and it’s becoming a bit concerning.  Still a talented team but they’ve got to show more.  Miami and Baylor move up one spot each and are coming off 70-plus performances last week.  Florida stands pat at No. 19 and Notre Dame gets bumped up one spot to No. 20 this week. 

21- Northwestern
22- Ole Miss
23- Wisconsin
24- Georgia Tech
25- UCF

I’ve got almost an entirely new 21-25 this week, with the only holdover in Ole Miss.  No. 23 Wisconsin checks back into the top 25 after a bounce back game against Purdue.  No. 24, Georgia Tech is a newcomer and Paul Thompson’s Yellow Jackets are 3-0 and are shaping up to be Miami’s top competition in the ACC Coastal division.  UCF remains at No. 25 but they host South Carolina on Saturday.   
Out: Arizona State & Boise State

Bubble teams:
Fresno State, Maryland, Nebraska, Michigan State

Top 25 Breakdown by Conference
SEC- 7 (Alabama, LSU, Texas A&M, Georgia, S. Carolina, Florida, Ole Miss)
B1G- 4 (Ohio State, Michigan, Northwestern, Wisconsin)
Pac 12- 4 (Stanford, Oregon, UCLA, Washington)
ACC- 4 (Clemson, FSU, Miami, Georgia Tech)
Big 12- 3 (Oklahoma State, Oklahoma, Baylor)
AAC- 2 (Louisville, UCF)
Ind- 1 (Notre Dame)
 

Nick’s Top 25 Breakdown

1.       Alabama (1) 3-0
2.       Stanford (2) 3-0
3.       Clemson (3) 3-0
4.       Oregon (4) 3-0
5.       Ohio State (5) 4-0
6.       LSU (6) 4-0
7.       Florida State (7) 3-0
8.       Georgia (8) 2-1
9.       South Carolina (9) 2-1
10.   Louisville (11) 4-0
11.   Oklahoma (12) 3-0
12.   Texas A&M (14) 3-1
13.   Washington (16) 3-0
14.   Oklahoma State (15) 3-0
15.   Michigan (10) 4-0
16.   Notre Dame (13) 3-1
17.   UCLA (17) 3-0
18.   Northwestern (20) 4-0
19.   Miami (18) 3-0
20.   Florida (19) 2-1
21.   Baylor (21) 3-0
22.   Ole Miss (22) 4-0
23.   Fresno State (23) 3-0
24.   Texas Tech (24) 4-0
25.   Wisconsin (NR) 3-1

Dropped out: Boise State (25)

 

1-5

My one trough five stayed the exact same this week for the second week in a row. Alabama was pretty unimpressive against Colorado State at home but took care of business. Stanford got a solid win against Arizona State on Saturday showing that it is the best team in the Pac-12. Clemson started slow and looked pretty sloppy against NC State but that was a Thursday night game and sometimes NC State will surprise a team with a weekday game. Oregon was idle and Ohio State beat Florida A&M by 76, big deal.

6-10

Same can be said for my 6-10 expect for the fact that Louisville moves into the top 10. I am still struggling to call the Cardinals a top 10 team because they have not beat a single good team, but if Ohio State can be No. 5 without a quality win Louisville can be top 10 without a quality win. LSU, FSU, Georgia and South Carolina all are staying put for now, but expect that to change next week with LSU-Georgia coming up this week.

11-15

I moved Oklahoma up one place this week because I think the Sooners are for real. If Blake Bell can play the rest of the season like he played last week this team could run away with the Big 12 title. Texas A&M is now No. 12. I think the Aggies are a good team and could make the SEC West very interesting with a win over LSU coming up. I moved Washington up three places this week. I am really starting to believe in the Huskies this team could be for real, lets see what happens when they have to play Oregon and Stanford. Oklahoma State moves up one place from last week. Here is the one change here last week I had Michigan No. 10 but I dropped them this week after two really close calls to some pretty bad teams in Akron and UConn. I think the Wolverines are talented, but not top 10 material.

16-20

I dropped Notre Dame to No. 16 this week not because of any bad performances but mostly because I am sure that I had it way over ranked. The Irish are good, but not the No. 13 team in the land. UCLA stays at No. 17 this week, while Northwestern makes its move into the top 18 at 18. I think the Wildcats are a solid team and we will learn a lot on Oct. 5 when they host Ohio State. I only dropped Miami and Florida one place this week because I think there are better teams than them.

21-25

Baylor moves up one place this week to No. 21, I think the Bears are a good team, but have yet to show it against a quality opponent. Ole Miss is a surprising 4-0, but has the big date with No. 1 Bama this week. I know Fresno State probably should move up after a good win against Boise State, but I am just not totally sold on the Bulldogs yet. Texas Tech moves up one place to No. 24 to make room for Wisconsin to come back in the top 25. I think the Badgers got the shaft in Tempe two weeks ago and I am sure this is a team worthy of a top-25 ranking.