Nick’s Week 7 Picks
The big brother is out of town this weekend so it is just me making the calls this weekend. A few big games to speak of including South Carolina, off its domination of Georgia, in Death Valley vs. LSU. Notre Dame hosts Stanford in an old time rivalry renewed. The Red River Shootout between top-15 teams Texas and Oklahoma (interesting because these two teams look like second tier Big 12 teams, what a new age!). Look out for USC at Washington, the Huskies are looking to rebound after an embarrassment against Oregon last week. Finally the one I am going to love to pick Texas A&M at Louisiana Tech. Lets get to the picks and breakdowns. After you read check us out on twitter @kinneybrozcfb, for some live tweets from tomorrow action.
No. 1 Alabama (5-0) at Missouri (3-3), 3:30 p.m. ET-After a week off and an extra week to prepare I expect ‘Bama to roll in this match up. Missouri is have a tough first season in the SEC (as expected they might). The ‘Tide is rolling averaging 40 points and over 400 yards of total offense per game. It is also allowing just one touchdown per game and currently ranked No. 1 in total defense giving up 191 yards of total offense per contest. The duo of T.J. Yeldon and Eddie Lacy are keeping the Alabama offense rolling, but quarterback A.J. McCarron is have an excellent season completing nearly 66 percent of his passes for 12 touchdowns and no picks. McCarron may be the most underrated top-ranked quarterback in the college game this season. I expect this defense to really get in the face of Missouri quarterback Corbin Berkstresser and disrupt this spread offense. Expect this “old man football” team to run all over the Mizzou offense. Tide win the first matchup of these SEC schools.
‘Bama, 42-17.
No. 3 South Carolina (6-0) at No. 9 LSU (5-1), 8 p.m. ET-I was not in love with this South Carolina team before last week and honestly I’m not still, but they made a major statement last week taking Georgia to the house. LSU’s loss to Florida was expected, it was playing bad football to that point and got a major wakeup call. I see this game being very close and low scoring. South Carolina and LSU both have top-11 defenses with the Gamecocks having the 11th ranked total defense and LSU with the third-best defense in the country. With that kind of defense being played in this game it comes down to who can run the ball and impose their will. I have to give the nod to USC in that category because of Marcus Lattimore. The Gamecock workhorse has 549 yards and nine touchdowns on the season and will be the key to their victory. Don’t think I am underestimating a night game in Death Valley, but I do not like the way this LSU offense rolls. Zach Mettenberger is not a good quarterback and when it comes to crunch time he cannot make the big play needed. LSU has one of the best defensive fronts in the country, but I see South Carolina controlling the trenches in this one.
In a close game Gamecocks win 17-14.
No. 4 Florida (5-0) at Vanderbilt (2-3), 6 p.m. ET-Florida is coming off a huge emotional victory against LSU and looks like it can challenge for an SEC East title. This is another one that people keep calling a trap game. As I have said before I do not like that term, so maybe I will come up with one of my own. Let’s call this a do not look ahead game. With a Florida and South Carolina match up coming up next week with a potential for the driver seat of the SEC East the young Gators just need to avoid a major let down against the Commodores. Vanderbilt has a top-35 defense, but I do not see it slowing down this Gator rushing attack that is averaging 214 yards per contest. Running back Mike Gillislee has had a great season so far with 548 yards and seven touchdowns, while quarter back Jeff Driskel looks like the real deal with 759 passing and 149 rush yards for a combined five touchdowns. This Florida defense is top 12 allowing just 284 yards per game. I like the Gators to win this one, but closer than expected.
Gators, 31-21.
No. 5 West Virginia (5-0) at Texas Tech (4-1), 3:30 p.m. ET-Last week I would have probably told you I like Tech to slow down this Mountaineer offense and keep this close, but with WVU putting up 48 points on Texas I do not see that happening. Also not to mention the Red Raiders were killed by Oklahoma and allowed 41 points and 380 yards of total offense. Mountaineer quarter back Geno Smith is the Heisman front runner so far with nearly 2000 yards (1996) and 24 touchdowns, but what impressed me the most last week is them to be able to run the ball. Andrew Buie is a great running back and can control the ground game if needed (even though it has not yet). Texas Tech is still reeling after that loss, but I expect it to keep this game close, with it still being ranked No. 2 in total defense. There is no doubt both teams can score so this game should be entertaining with a lot of points scored with WVU averaging 52 points per game and TTU averaging 39 points per game. If this game comes down to defense, which do doubt it will, Tech has a chance to keep it close. Whichever team has the ball last wins this game. I have to give this one to West Virginia after what I have seen this season.
‘Eers win 42-35.
No. 6 Kansas State (5-0) at Iowa State (4-1), Noon ET-This game got a lot more interesting after Iowa State beat TCU. That being said, Kansas State looks like the real deal and quarterback Colin Klein has run this offense with excellent efficiency completing nearly 66 percent of his passes and seven touchdowns. Just as impressive has been John Hubert who has 527 yards and eight touchdowns on the season. The K-State offense is rolling into this game averaging 440 yards of offense and 262 on the ground this season. The Wildcat defense is allowing just 15 points per game and that includes a game against high powered offense Oklahoma. For Iowa State head coach Paul Rhoads has this team playing at a high level with a top-30 ranked defense. The problems for the Cyclones is they do not have a quarterback settled and are also trying to run a two back offense and has proved a little sluggish at times. I think Klein and the Wildcats play this close for the first half, but open it up in the second and pull away.
Kansas State, 42-24.
No. 7 Notre Dame (5-0) vs. No. 17 Stanford (4-1), 3:30 p.m. ET-This is a very interesting game to pick because both teams have excellent defenses and have not so great offenses. I am not sure who to pick yet but maybe as I ramble about it for the next few sentences I will do what I am here to do. With both defenses playing excellent football I have to call that a pretty much wash, so it comes down to which offense can make the big plays. Both offenses are ranked 75 plus and both are above 50 in points scored. Looking at position by position at quarterback I like Stanford’s Josh Nunes he has had a pretty good season so far, with big shoes to fill. Stanford wins that position battle mostly because Notre Dame is still running a dual-quarterback system. Everett Golson has been playing good football, but Nunes has the stats (1,145 yards and 8 touchdowns). Looking at other positions in the offense Stanford also gets the nod in this one with Stephan Taylor already over 500 yards rushing for the season with five touchdowns. Notre Dame’s George Atkinson III has just 269 yards and three touchdowns. By looking at these two offensive stats it would be easy to say Stanford should win this game, but never underestimate the power of South Bend and the Domers at home. I think the Notre Dame defense comes up with some big plays in this game forcing a few turnovers and giving its slow rolling offense good field position.
Notre Dame wins another close one 20-14.
No. 8 Ohio State (6-0) at Indiana (2-3), 8 p.m. ET-The Buckeyes should have no problem in this match up against a bad Indiana defense. Braxton Miller looks like one of the best players in the country with 1800 yards of total offense and 17 touchdowns so far. Indiana is allowing 440 yards of offense a game to opponents and ranking 94th in the country. I don’t see any way this Ohio State doesn’t rack up at least that many against the Hoosiers this week. Indiana can put up some points of its own and move the ball, but don’t expect them to have a chance in this game.
Buckeyes roll, 38-14.
No. 10 Oregon State (4-0) at BYU (4-2), 3:30 p.m. ET-This is a very interesting matchup of top defenses. The Cougars have the fifth-ranked defense in the country and look like they are poised for an upset against a Beaver team that just lost its starting quarterback. How the loss of Sean Mannion will effect this Oregon State team has yet to be seen but this game will tell us a lot about that. BYU can play defense with the best teams in the country, but it cannot play offense. The Cougars are 73rd in total offense and 81st in points score this season and are looking to make some major noise in Provo. Both teams have started with four wins so far by playing defense and are allowing less than 20 per game. Without Mannion playing for Oregon State I am going to call the upset in this one (as much as it hurts to pick BYU as a Wyoming fan, I have to be as unbiased as possible). BYU wins a very low scoring matchup without an offensive touchdown.
BYU, 9-6
No. 11 USC (4-1) at Washington (3-2), 7 p.m. ET-Here are two teams that are looking for big wins. USC is looking to keep on a roll after a win against Utah last week. The Huskies are looking to get back on track after getting rolled by Oregon last week. With all the weapons on USC this should be a game that the Trojans roll in, but I am not sold on them yet. This SC offense that everyone was calling better than the 2005-06 offense before the season only ranks 48th in total offense and 41st and 70th in passing and rushing yards, respectively. Washington’s offense is not a juggernaut either ranking behind the Trojans in all categories including 109th in total yards this season. The Trojans started very slow last week against Utah falling 14-0 early, I can tell you this much if they start that slow against a more talented Washington team they are going to fall. The Huskies are ranked No.13 in pass defense this season and that will be the key to this game. They will not let a solid USC passing attack get rolling and hang in this game with a chance to win in the fourth quarter. I think this Huskie team is better than the 3-2 record would show and way better than a 50 point loss to Oregon. Crazy but for the second-consecutive pick I have to call upset here.
Washington wins 31-27.
No. 12 Florida State (5-1) vs. Boston College (1-4), 5:30 p.m. ET-After a season defining loss last weekend, Florida State will get back on track this week with a bad Boston College team coming to Tallahassee. The ‘Noles will be hungry to prove that they are still a good football team and will take their frustration out on Boston College. E.J. Manuel has nearly 1400 yards passing and 10 touchdowns and will look to begin to rebuild his Heisman campaign with this game. The Eagles have the 104th ranked defense allowing 460 yards of total offense to their opponents which creates a bad matchup with the Seminoles ranked in the top 15 in three major offensive categories, No. 14 total yards (510), No. 13 rushing yards (238) and No. 7 points scored (45). FSU has three running backs who can gash the BC defense led by Chris Thompson who has 572 yards and five scores this season. Florida State gets back on track and rolls in this game.
‘Noles, 52-17.
No. 13 Oklahoma (3-1) vs. No. 15 Texas (4-1), Copper Bowl, Dallas, Texas, Noon ET-This season’s Red River Shootout (yes I still call it that because I am not one to change the name of a rivalry just to remain politically correct, but that is for another blog post) is not the same of old with national title implications or actually you could say without Big 12 title implications. This is a game of offense though, both teams are averaging 38-plus points per game and are top 30 in total yards. Both teams offenses will get rolling in this game and are capable of making this a 90-point game. David Ash has secured his starting sport for the Longhorns having a great season completing nearly 80 percent of his passes for 1276 yards and 11 touchdowns. Texas also has a three headed monster at running back led by Joe Bergeron who has nine scores this season. Oklahoma can play offense this season too, proving that last week against what was the No. 1 total defense at Texas Tech, scoring 41 points and racking up 380 yards of total offense. Landry Jones has not had the senior season everyone was predicting with just over 1000 yards and seven touchdowns. Maybe the difference in this game from games in previous years is Oklahoma has a defense and Texas does not. The Sooner defense is No. 17 in the country in total defense allowing just over 300 yards per game. I am not sure what to think about that though because this is a unit that could not get off the field when it mattered against Kansas State and it lost them the game. I thought that the Texas defense was going to be a lot better this season, but it is on track to give up for yards than any other time in school history. I think in a close high-scoring game that passes the 90 point mark.
Texas wins 49-42.
No. 18 Louisville (5-0) at Pittsburgh (2-3), 11 a.m. ET-Sure this Pittsburgh team has been playing better as of late, but it’s not hard to look better after you looked like the worst team in football over the first two games of the season. I heard ESPN today put Louisville on upset watch because they have four in a row to Pitt. Give me a break. Pitt has lost some really bad games this season and just lost a close one to a bad Syracuse team. I will still stand beside it, Teddy Bridgewater is one of the best sophomore quarterbacks in the country and has 1134 yards this season and 8 touchdowns. Louisville is off and running with a 5-0 start and will not look back against a bad Pitt team. Louisville defense shuts the Panthers down.
Cardinals, 31-14.
No. 19 Mississippi State (5-0) vs. Tennessee (3-2), 9 p.m. ET-When I first started looking at this matchup my first reaction was, wow, Miss State has played absolutely no one to deserve that top-20 ranking. Sure I know what a fine line winning and losing is but two FCS wins and a wins over bad Auburn and Kentucky teams makes this team not look very good on paper. The Bulldogs do have a top-10 defense in points allowed, allowing just 13 per game but they have not played a solid offense yet. I think this is the game Miss State’s undefeated run ends. Tyler Bray is having a great season with over 1500 yards passing and 14 touchdowns. He leads the Tennessee offense that could ignite on this Bulldog defense. I have heard all week about how great this Miss State defense is but when you play bad teams, of course it makes you look better. I think Tennessee wins in this game proving it is better than that 3-2 record.
Vols win 35-24.
No. 20 Rutgers (5-0) vs. Syracuse (2-3), Noon ET-This game should be an easy win for a Rutgers team that is playing excellent defense this season. The Scarlet Knights are fifth in points allowed (10) and 15th in total defense allowing 297 yards per game. Rutgers quarterback Gary Nova has started the season great with 1119 yards and 10 touchdowns, with running back Jawan Jamison rushing for 601 yards and two scores. The Rutgers defense should be able to shut down this Syracuse offense which was only able to manage 13 points against Pitt last weekend. The Scarlet Knights win this and keep rolling.
Rutgers 38-10.
No. 21 Cincinnati (4-0) at Fordham (4-2), 7 p.m. ET-Not sure why I should even talk about this game so sorry Bearcat fans you only get a couple sentences. Cincy has won 22 nonconference home games and this game will not change that. Very surprised and a little shocked you would schedule a FCS opponent this late in the second when you should be playing conference schools. This game is a rout for the Bearcats.
Cincy wins 42-17.
No. 22 Texas A&M (4-1) at No. 23 Louisiana Tech (5-0)-Here is one of the most intriguing games of the weekend. I could not wait to talk about this game. This is a game that was postponed because of Hurricane Issac and now I am glad it was. What a great match up. The one major stat is this game is both teams can score like crazy. Tech is scoring just over 50 points per game which is third best in the country while A&M is scoring nearly 45 per game which is No.8 in the country. Both teams are top 12 in total yards with A&M No. 12 averaging 516 yards per game while Tech averages 523 yards per game and is No. 11 in the country. Texas A&M quarterback Johnny Manziel makes the Aggie offense go with almost 1800 yards of total offense and 18 touchdowns. Tech quarterback Colby Cameron has nearly 1500 yards of passing and 13 touchdowns, with receiver Quinton Patton catching 34 balls for 532 yards and five touchdowns. The is one thing I can guarantee this game will have little or no defense (not quite a Baylor-West Virginia) and I expect this one to get above 100 points.
Tech wins a shocker 56-49.
No. 24 Boise State (4-1) vs. Fresno State (4-2), 3:30 p.m. ET-This matchup’s winner puts it in control of the Mountain West Championship race. Neither team has looked like the offensive power that they were built up to be, but Boise State looked like it was the offense of old. Boise State rolled over a bad Southern Miss team 40-14 last week. This offense is missing Doug Martin and Kellen Moore, but Joe Southwick is starting to look like a Boise State quarterback. On the other side, Bulldog signal caller and preseason MW POY, Derek Carr is the No. 11 passer in the nation with over 1800 yards. Carr has also thrown for 18 touchdowns which is tied for second-best in the country. On the ground Robbie Rouse has over 700 yards of rushing and eight touchdowns. This should be a high-scoring battle against two of the best teams in the MW, but I have to give the nod to the home team.
Boise State wins a close one 38-35.
No. 25 Michigan (3-2) vs. Illinois (2-4), 3:30 p.m. ET- I may get some hate mail from Wolverine fans for this comment, but I think Denard Robinson is one of the most overrated players in the country. Sure he leads them in both passing and rushing, but when you have no other player makers on that offense. Robinson cannot figure out what he is doing on the field with eight picks this season he cannot be trusted to throw the ball. That being said, I will not vent about Robinson any more, Michigan should win this game pretty easily in the Big House. Robinson has over 1600 yards of total offense this season with 11 touchdowns. Neither team is great offensively, but with Michigan ranking No. 19 in total defense this should go its way pretty easily.
Michigan wins 35-10.
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