Saturday, October 6, 2012

Week 6 Picks

We're going to find out a lot this week as teams begin to get into their conference schedules.  Big match ups abound as top 25 teams will be pitted against as five of our games this weekend are top 25 against top 25.  The SEC East race will take shape this week as #5 Georgia, #6 S. Carolina and #10 Florida all jockey for position.  Oregon faces a confident Washington team that's coming off an upset against Stanford.  West Virginia will actually line up against a college football team this week as they look to stay undefeated and keep their conference and nation title hopes alive against Texas.  Nebraska takes it's running game on the road looking to get one step closer to a B1G title at Ohio State. 

All in all, it's a great weekend in college football.  Time to sit back and enjoy. 


#1 Alabama IDLE
Next game- @ Mizzou, Oct. 13th


#2 Oregon vs. #23 Washington
I really like this Husky team, especially now that they're playing defense.  That defense held a tough Stanford running game in check, giving up only 65 rushing yards.  They'll need an even better defensive performance this week if they have any hope of pulling off a victory this week against an Oregon offense that's averaging 303 yards on the ground.  An interesting point to keep in mind- Washington defensive coordinator, Justin Wilcox was the defensive coordinator of 2009 Boise State team that shut down the Ducks, 19-8.  

Logic says to pick the Ducks here who are playing at home where they've won 27 of the last 28.  Recent history is also not on the Huskies side as Oregon has won the past eight meetings and outscored Washington by at least 17 points each of those games.  After watching the Ducks stumble out of the gates against Arizona and Washington State the past two weeks and needing big second halves to pull away, a slow start against this UW team could spell disaster.  I know I'll probably regret this but I'm picking the upset here.
34-31, Huskies
-Jeremy

Not sure if I agree. Never under estimate the power of Thursday night football (Wash over Stanford). Teams always seem to get up for big games on Thursdays. Don't get me wrong I do not think this Oregon team is No. 2 in the country at all. This would be their first win against a ranked opponent, even if it is No. 23. I think I have to go with the Ducks in this game. It being in Husky Stadium I get can make it tougher, but I don't think the Huskies can hang with Oregon. The big stat to me in this game that could be a difference maker is points for and points allowed. Washington allows just 19 points per game, but just score 23 and change per game. The Ducks are also allowing just 19 per game, but score almost 54 per game. I see this game just like the stat box shows.
Ducks roll, winning 45-21. 
-Nick

#3 Florida State @ N.C. State
With a so-so performance in their first road game last week, expect Jimbo Fisher to have his boys ready to roll this week.  The 'Noles defensive line will get after Mike Glennon and a shaky N.C. State O-line who's starting its fourth different line up in six games.  FSU will go into Carter-Finley and take care of business.
FSU- 41-17
-Jeremy

Sure FSU had a pretty lackluster performance against South Florida, but coming off a big emotional win against Clemson that is bound to happen to any team. N.C. State has given FSU fits in recent years, but I don't see anyway it can pull an upset of the 'Noles here. The Wolfpack two losses have come against more athletic teams in Miami and Tennessee. Look for the FSU athleticism to really showcase in this game. FSU rolls 34-14.
-Nick


#4  LSU @ #10 Florida
This might be the biggest game of the early college football season.  With this big game comes a ton of big questions.  Will LSU show up?  After a few stinkers there are a ton of questions surrounding Les Miles program.  Defensively, LSU was supposed to be as good or better than a year ago and with Zach Mettenberger coming in, the offense was predicted to be much improved.  After five weeks it's still difficult to put your finger on the Tigers and will not be able to get in and out of the Swamp without playing their best game of the season. 

The Gators are coming into this game off a bye week and a couple really impressive road wins at Texas A&M and at Tennessee.  The Florida defense seems to be as good as advertised giving up only 12.8 points a game but the new found offense has really been the difference for the 4-0 Gators.  They seem to have the quarterback position settled with sophomore Jeff Driskel making the throws he needs opening up running room for a running game averaging 224.5 yards per game, led by Mike Gillislee. 

Based on the schedule and who has looked better so far it seems crazy not to take Florida in this game, especially at home.  But, I'm forever intrigued by 'The Mad Hatter' and have a feeling that this slow start is all part of some brilliant, master plan by Les Miles to lull the nation to sleep, making us overlook the Tigers.  Miles takes his team into the Swamp and steals a big win as the nation collectively slaps its forehead and wonders, 'where the hell did that come from?'
27-24- LSU.
-Jeremy

I agree with Jeremy, this is one of the biggest games of the season so far if not the biggest. What version of both teams shows up in this match up is a better question. Both teams enter undefeated and looking to make a major statement in the national title picture. To start with I am not to sure what to think about this LSU team. It has looked pretty bad over the last two weeks, but does that mean it is time for a huge breakout win in the Swamp? This team is No. 18 in the country with 224 yards per contest, but if Florida slows the running game the Tigers are in trouble. They are 95th in the country in passing per game averaging 203 yards per game. This defense is for real though they are ninth in the country allowing nearly 13 points per game which could make a big difference. As for the Gators this team is much improved over last season, Will Mustchamp has this team playing at a very high level. They have had a few close ones against Tennessee and Texas A&M, but that was back-to-back SEC road games and are two of the toughest places in the country to play. Florida is another team that loves to run the ball and this will be the key to this match up. Florida is No. 20 in the country also averaging 224 yards on the ground. I have been thinking about this game all week and trying to decide who I should pick. With this game in the Swamp I am going to give the nod to Florida. Mustchamp is looking for that signature win at Florida and I think he gets it this weekend. This is close with two great defenses battling, but the Gators win 21-17
-Nick

#5 Georgia @ #6 South Carolina
This is a tough game to call. Both teams are looking to take control of the SEC East race and pick up a huge conference win. I think if it ends up high scoring Georgia runs away with it. That being said if South Carolina can control the ball and force Georgia's defense to stay on the field and play for long stretches this could go to the Gamecocks. I am not sure how South Carolina will react to such a big game because they have not played anyone of note yet this season. Last week against Kentucky they looked very beatable and the Wildcats looked like they had them on the ropes before they rolled back to shutout UK in the second half scoring 31-straight points. SC can run the ball if they keep it in Marcus Lattimore's hands who had 120 yards and two touchdowns last week. If he can get rolling the Gamecocks can control the time of possession for Georgia to play defense. South Carolina has a fast and athletic defense that is No. 6 in the country in points against and looks to be the real deal. It is going to need to play solid defense because Georgia ranks in the top 30 of every major offensive category.
Georgia- 31-21.
-Nick

This is a tough call.  Both teams looked flawed last week but it could be that they were looking ahead to this match up.  These teams are loaded with talent and I expect both teams to be completely locked in Saturday.  South Carolina has won the last two meetings but I think Georgia should be able to move the ball with a very balanced attack and ware down the Gamecock defense.  This is a close one but I give the edge to Georgia who'll get an inside track in the SEC East with a win.
Georgia- 24-20
-Jeremy

#7 Kansas State vs. Kansas
Bill Snyder has this Kansas State team playing excellent football and with a great quarterback like Collin Kline, Kansas doesn’t have a chance in this one. K-State has won 12-consecutive home games against unranked opponents. The Wildcats are also averaging 40 points per game which spells major trouble for a KU defense that allows 23 points per game. The Jayhawks have lost 14 straight road games and no way they snap that this weekend.
Kansas State wins big, 42-24.
-Nick

I totally agree that K-State will win big.  Optimus Kline is one of the most dangerous players in the country and could have a career day against this very porous KU defense.  On the flip side, the K-State defense should have no problems shutting down the Jayhawk offense that's only averaging 21 points per game.  Easy win.
45-10 K-State
-Jeremy

#8 West Virginia @ #11 Texas
Another intriguing game this weekend with West Virginia looking like it can break the scoreboard in any stadium, but what happens when it plays a serious defense. Sure they are scoring 53 points per game, but Texas can score with anyone, which it proved putting up 66 on Ole Miss. The problem for the Mountaineers is they are allowing opponents to score 37 per game while the Longhorns allow just 21 to their opponents.

This will be West Virginia’s first road game of the season and what tougher environment can you expect to go into with 100,000-plus screaming Texans? No doubt Geno Smith will play a great game in this one, but no way he throws for 656 yards against a tough Texas defense. Like I said last week Texas is for real and has a serious running game. Sure they had a tougher match up than I thought against Oklahoma State, but Stillwater is a tougher place to play than I guess I thought. I think Texas pounds the ball on the ground this game and keeps Smith and that WVU offense off the field. No doubt these two teams will score some points, but when Texas is forced to it will put the ball on the ground and run all over the Mountaineers.
Texas wins a close one 38-35.

-Nick

Last week West Virginia put up video game numbers against a phantom defense, if you want to give Baylor that much credit.  This week, Geno Smith and the high flying Mountaineer offense will actually break a sweat.  As good as they were last week, let's not forget that the week before they looked pretty average against Maryland, only scoring 31 points and gaining 363 yards... against Maryland. 

This week West Virginia goes on the road for the first time to play a Texas team that will be far and away the most talented team they've played this season.  The Longhorns have a big time offense, averaging 267.8 through the air and 228 on the ground with a stable of talented running backs.  It's the Longhorn running game that will be the difference in this game and expose West Virginia's 96th ranked scoring defense.  UT controls the clock and the game at home, knocking off West Virginia.
41-34, Texas
-Jeremy


#9 Notre Dame vs. Miami (at Soldier Field)
A couple weeks ago I may have said Notre Dame runs away with this but the ‘Canes are playing a lot better football as of late (sure the Georgia Tech win in OT is bad after what Middle Tennessee did to it last week, and N.C. State is not a great win either). Don’t get me wrong, Miami doesn’t have a lot of great wins but they are finding ways to win .  For a team that is coming off some major attrition and not the same ‘Cane team of old they are winning games they are supposed to. They have scored 42 and 44 in their previous two games, but against a solid Notre Dame defense no way they put up that much. I am not sure how confident I am in Notre Dame, because they are unsettled at quarterback, but with their defense I think it should be able to handle the Hurricanes.
Notre Dame wins this one 38-14.
-Nick

Notre Dame is not NC State.  Or, Georgia Tech or Bethune-Cookman.  I see this game more like the Kansas State game for the 'Canes.  I think they're playing better than they were early in the season but Notre Dame's fourth ranked defense will give this Miami offense fits all game long.  Playing in Chicago, this will be like a home game for the Irish and I expect them to come off their bye and bring Miami back to reality.  A bad Miami defense, 100th in scoring defense, should allow the Irish offense to get back on track.
Notre Dame, 27-17.
-Jeremy


#12 Ohio State vs. #21 Nebraska 
Everyone can go ahead and call this game as a match up of two of the best quarterbacks in the B1G, but these are both athletes playing quarterback. Braxton Miller is a solid running quarterback who can lead this Ohio State team to victory at home against the Huskers. If the Blackshirt defense can slow him down watch out because he doesn’t have any weapons to score around him. Taylor Martinez is the same type of quarterback as Miller, but cannot throw the ball when he is pressured. If the Buckeye defense can pressure him and make him throw the ball the Huskers are in trouble. The best thing Nebraska has going for it is the duo of Rex Burkhead and Ameer Abdullah who are one of the best tandems in the country. Abdullah is the Huskers leading rusher with 486 yards and five touchdowns. If these two can get going in this game Nebraska can pull the upset.
This is a close one but Nebraska pulls it out on the ground.
Nebraska 31-27.
-Nick

Both teams are coming off big conference wins last week.  Nebraska at home against Wisconsin and Ohio State on the road over Michigan State.  While not an earth shattering win for the Huskers, it's a win.  Wisconsin is a mess this season and they took the Huskers to the brink last week.  The Buckeye's shut down Michigan State's Le'Veon Bell, which looks impressive at first glance but if you take a closer look at Bell's season, he's only had two big rushing games- against Boise St. for 210 and Central Michgan for 253.  In his other three games, he's only averaged 64 yards per game. Why is this important? Because Nebraska has a three-headed rushing attack that's churning out 305 yards per game. The Buckeyes won't be able to stop this ground game and the Huskers pull out another close one.
24-23, Nebraska
-Jeremy
 

* #13 USC @ Utah, Thurs. Oct. 4
USC gets an easy win in this one. Barkley and the SC receivers will pick this bad Utah defense apart. The Trojans are a good team, but are very top heavy and lack the depth to really make a run at the Pac-12 Championship. Utah is 1-2 in its last three games with two bad losses- a blowout to Arizona State, who lets admit is not that great, and a loss to little brother Utah State. Let’s give Utah a pass on the little brother, hell I even beat Jeremy sometimes in backyard football, but the 37-7 loss to the Sun Devils is a bad loss. Sure the BYU victory was huge for the Utes, but that is a rivalry game and could go either way any year. The Trojans roll in this game.
42-17 USC.
-Nick

I agree. USC rebounded from a tough loss last game by beating Cal and will look to gain momentum this week against a very bad Utah team. The Trojans should have no trouble getting in and out of this one with a win. Although they are thin, they’re still USC and,  their talent will be way too much for the Utes.
34-10, USC.
-Jeremy


#14 Oregon State vs. Washington State 
Oregon State is really surprising me this season they have won some games they had no business winning because they play solid defense. They are allowing just 20 points per game. In a game that Washington State could only win if it turned into a shootout no way it can get rolling on this defense. Oregon State has a solid quarterback in Sean Mannion who does not make big mistakes. The Beavers take this game pretty handily with a young Washington State team that cannot quite play Mike Leach’s offense yet.
Beavers, 35-24.
-Nick

The Beavers are well coached and will count on being back on their home field to give them an edge this week against Washington State.  Oregon State has defeated better teams this season, but I could see this going either way.  OSU has won by three, seven and three points respectively this season and are going against a Washington State team that is itching to get back on track after consecutive losses.  I really want to take the upset here and go with Washington State but inconsistency at quarterback and the 97th ranked scoring defensive is not a recipe for success on the road. 
35-30, OSU
-Jeremy

#15 TCU vs. Iowa State
This game got a lot more interesting after the Thursday arrest of Casey Pachall for an apparent DWI. The problem for TCU is that Pachall makes this offense go. The Frogs are really going to have to rely on the second-ranked scoring defense in the country in this game. Iowa State and Paul Rhoads have an athletic team and a top-20 defense as well. TCU managed just 156 yards of total offense against SMU who is not near as good on defense as Iowa State. Not sure how to call this game the Pachall suspension made it very interesting, and running back Matthew Tucker is questionable. If Tucker plays, the Frogs can hand the ball to him and win a low scoring contest. Without Tucker TCU has no offense. I cannot put this all on one players back that is a bad way to make a call. TCU still pulls this one out in a low scoring battle. Expect this game to come to the end.
Frogs 17-14.
-Nick

Like Nick, this game was a much easier call a few days ago.  With Pachall out, this game is much more intriguing.  TCU will have to lean heavily on their second ranked defense to eek out a win against this Iowa State team and I think they can do it.  TCU has overcome the loss of running back Waymone James and will cirlce the wagons today. 
TCU, 20-10.
-Jeremy

#15 Clemson vs. Georgia Tech 
After what Georgia Tech did last week, or better yet didn’t do, this game is a laugher. Tech allowed 49 points and 510 yards of total offense to Middle Tennessee who is not even close to the caliber of Clemson. The Tigers should run away, literally, with this game. Tajh Boyd, Sammy Watkins and DeAndre Hopkins should tear this defense apart for another 500 yard game. The triple-option offense of G. Tech is always difficult to prepare for but, Clemson rolls in this game against a bad Tech defense.
Tigers win in a rout, 45-17.
-Nick

I'm with Nick here.  Clemson's offense is cruising and will be too much for a Georgia Tech defense that gave up 49 points to Middle Tennessee last week and 42 to Miami the weekend before.  The only way GT has a chance is if they can get rolling on the ground and keep a high flying Clemson offense off the field.  They'll get their yards against this porous Tiger defense, but in the end, Clemson will just be to much.  I see this being closer than Nick does.
Clemson, 38-31
-Jeremy


#17 Oklahoma @ Texas Tech 
Another great game that could be very intriguing. Tommy Tubberville has this Tech defense playing great, ranking No. 1 in the country in total defense. The Oklahoma offense struggled against a physical Kansas State defense and expect nothing less this weekend. The Red Raiders cannot score in bunches so if the Sooners come out and start putting points on the board it could be a long night. I do not see that happening, however.  I think this Red Raider team is going to give OU all it can handle and more. Tech not only has a great defense but is one of the best offenses in the country too. It has the seventh best passing offense in the country and has the 11th best scoring offense at 43.8 per game. This game has upset written all over it and I am going to call Texas Tech in this one.
Texas Tech wins this one and is higher scoring than you might expect, 35-28.
-Nick

I'm going the other way.  While I wouldn't be surprised if Tech pulls an upset, especially with the tail-spin Landry Jones and Oklahoma seem to be in going back to last season.  That said, coming off a bye, I think Bob Stoops will have the kinks worked out and his team will be ready to play.  The Sooner defense is solid and I think the offense is bound to get back on track.  While Landry Jones is not a Heisman worthy quarterback, he's got some talent and has play makers on this team. 

Texas Tech is a total mystery to me so far.  When Iowa State is the best team you've played after four games it's hard not to be skeptical.  Yeah, their defense is ranked number one in the country but of the three FBS schools they've faced, none are ranked higher than 64th in the country in scoring and Iowa State is the only one of the three that plays anything resembling defense. 

Like I said, I wouldn't be surprised at an upset here but I'm taking Oklahoma. 
27-20, Sooners
-Jeremy

#18 Stanford vs. Arizona 
Stanford has one of the best front sevens on defense in the country and this Arizona team looks to play up tempo offense in the classic Rich Rod style. My point being, is the Stanford front seven will slow down this Zona offense. Stanford is coming off a tough loss to Washington, but I think they will rebound in Palo Alto. Arizona can move the ball on offense and Stanford cannot find a way to score points. The key in this game is the Stanford defense. I think it will slow down the Wildcats and take care of business at home.
Stanford, 28-21.
-Nick

I don't expect to Stanford to have a repeat of last Thursday's game against the Huskies.  Stanford is too well coached and too disciplined to let Arizona take this one.  I like Stanford's rushing attack to get back on track and the defense to play well and win against an up and down Arizona team that's lost back to back games. 
Stanford,  30-24
-Jeremy


#19 Louisville IDLE


#20 Mississippi State @ Kentucky
Kentucky is coming off a tough loss against South Carolina playing well in the first half before allowing the Gamecocks to run all over it in the second half. Mississippi State has not been that impressive in their wins this season with two over FCS opponents. Mississippi State has played well on defense allowing on 13 points per outing but with an offense that is not ranked it in top 50 it is going to struggle when it gets into the heart of SEC play. LaDaris Perkins is averaging almost 100 yards a game, but the Bulldogs have not played a tough opponent yet. Don’t get me wrong Kentucky is not a great team averaging 119 rushing yards per game which is 105th in the nation. Kentucky is still looking for that big win against a ranked opponent, but it will not be coming this week.
Bulldogs win 35-24.
-Nick

I'm not sure Mississippi State is a top 25 team but I am sure that they'll take care of pretty ugly Kentucky team.  The Bulldogs don't really do anything great, but they do a lot of things very well- balanced offense and solid defense.  Kentucky does very little well and it will be more of the same this week. 
Mississippi St. 35-13
-Jeremy


#22  Rutgers vs. UCONN
Rutgers has a solid offense and one of the best young quarterbacks in the country in Gary Nova. The Scarlet Knights are coming off a huge victory over a reeling Arkansas team and look to keep that rolling against UCONN. The Huskies are near the bottom of every offensive category and I see no way they can take down the Scarlet Knights at home. Rutgers has a top-ranked defense allowing just 13 points per game and Connecticut is 94th in points scored averaging 23.5 per game. With a decent offense and a solid defense I think Rutgers wins this going away.
Scarlet Knights at home, 35-17.
-Nick

I'm with Nick here.  Rutgers is playing really well and a solid defense should be able to keep a pretty poor UCONN offense from getting on the scoreboard too often.  I think Rutgers wins a low scoring contest.
21-17, Rutgers
-Jeremy


#24 Northwestern @ Penn State 
This should be an interesting game this weekend. I like the way Northwestern is playing, but Penn State has won three in a row and they look like a team ready to have a breakout win. Northwestern has a pretty salty offense putting up some serious numbers. Matt McGloin has thrown for over 1200 yards this season and 10 touchdowns with only two interceptions. Venric Mark is has also had a great running year so far with 500 plus and five touchdowns. McGloin and Mark are running into a solid Nittany Lion defense that allows a little less than 14 per game. In Happy Valley this is a tough game for the Wildcats, but I think their offense can move the ball on this Penn State defense.
Wildcats, 28-24.
-Nick

I find myself quietly cheering for Bill O'Brien and this Penn State team.  With all the adversity they've faced, they have stuck together and are starting to play pretty good football, winning three straight.  They'll face perhaps their toughest test of the season today in Northwestern.  The Wildcats are 5-0 and have the ninth ranked rushing offense in the country, averaging 255.8 rushing yards per game.  They'll face a tough Nittany Lion defense that's giving up only 13 points per game.  I think stout defense and a big home crowd gives the Lions the advantage today.
Penn State, 24-21
-Jeremy

#25 UCLA @ Cal
UCLA is has defiantly overachieved this season, but Mora was left with some pretty good players this season. With that said, this California team is pretty pathetic but has played a pretty tough schedule so far. I am not sure what to think about UCLA because they have a top-20 offense and have proven they can play defense against Nebraska. I am not going to spend to much time on this cause really I don’t think UCLA should be ranked. The Bruins roll in this game.
UCLA 40-17.
-Nick

Jim Mora's got this team playing well so far.  UCLA is playing well offensively and have gotten good quarterback play for the first time in years.  Couple that with a ground game that ranks 13th in the nation and you've got a recipe that spells trouble for a Cal team that's really struggling to find an identity this season.  UCLA will cruise past the Golden Bears this weekend.
37-27, UCLA
-Jeremy

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