College Football Picks and Previews- Week 3 in Action

Top 25 vs. Top 25

 

No. 6 Georgia (1-0) @ No. 24 South Carolina (1-1), 3:30pm ET, CBS (Line: UGA -7, O/U: 60)

This is the only top 25 match up this weekend and it has a lot of intrigue. Georgia looked really good in its opener against Clemson, while South Carolina got rolled by Texas A&M in its home opener. What does that mean for this weekend? It is important to note Georgia has lost its last two games in Colombia by a combined score of 52-13. I don’t expect that to happen here because I think USC was a little over hyped at the beginning of this season and Georgia is playing with something to prove. With that said, I think this is closer than everyone thinks and Tood Gurley will make the big play that lifts Georgia to victory.

Georiga’s offense has not been world beaters this season putting up huge numbers, but when Gurley gets going it is tough to stop him- just ask the pretty solid defense of Clemson. Gurley went off for 198 yards on the ground and three scores. Oh yeah, while also taking a 100-yard kick return to the house. Gurley is going to be the key for the Dawgs because Hutson Mason is a quality quarterback but he has not had to show he can win for UGA. I think Gurley should have no problem getting going in this game and I see him getting 150-plus yards, but if USC can keep him out of the end zone they will force Mason and the wide receivers to make some plays to win this game.

The Bulldog defense was not totally dominant against Clemson, but when it did settle into the game it shut down the Tigers and looked every bit as good as it is billed up to be. They will be tasked with shutting down Mike Davis and Brandon Wilds who have combined 210 yards and two scores in two games. If the Dawgs defense can shut down the USC running game and force Dylan Thompson to throw the ball they could be on their way to a rout.

The Gamecock defense has looked very shaky so far this season allowing 37.5 points per game and 566 yards of total offense which ranks 120^th in the nation. They are also allowing 150 yards on the ground though their first two games which is 76^th in the country. There has not been a lot good to say about this defense, but what it needs to do to be successful in this game is stop Gurley and hope that its defensive secondary can make some plays. If the Gamecocks can stop Gurley and force Georgia to throw the ball it could have a chance because the Georgia passing game does not quite have the capability to carve up the secondary like Texas A&M has. The Dawgs do not have the fire power at the wide receiver position A&M does, so forcing them to throw maybe a good strategy in this one. Mason has not needed to really show he can win a game for the Dawgs after Gurley’s performance against Clemson so the Gamecocks should make him throw the ball to win the game.

USC’s offense had not been great in its first two games, but did enough last week to lead it past East Carolina. Thompson in certain situations has played well and is going to need to play excellent this week for USC to win this one. I think the Dawgs defense will coral the running game enough that Thompson is forced to make some throws.

I think Georgia wins a close game here with Gurley making a big play or two to lift them to victory. Don’t expect the high-scoring shootout that all the talking heads are calling for. Dawgs win close here.

Nick- UGA 31, South Carolina 27

Jeremy- Georgia 34, South Carolina 24

 

 

Upset Alert

 

No. 2 Oregon (2-0) vs. Wyoming (2-0), 2pm ET, Pac-12 Network (Line: UO -44, O/U: 64.5)

Ok, so upset alert?  Not really.  This is a homer pick.  The result of a dreamer from the great state of Wyoming.

First year Coach Craig Bohl has the Pokes playing very solid football.  They’re tough, physical and are tackling so much better than any time in the Dave Christensen era.  That said the offense lacks firepower and the defense is just too slow to keep the Ducks at bay for log.

Oregon is coming of perhaps its biggest win in the past five years against Michigan State.  The Spartans were able to bottle up the Ducks for the first two and a half quarters but this team just puts so much pressure on defenses every possession, the Spartans finally cracked. 

Wyoming might hang around for a quarter or so, but Mariota and the offense will put this game away by halftime… Or will they?

Jeremy- Oregon 58, Wyoming 13

Nick- Oregon 63, Wyoming 17

 

 

Tennessee (2-0) @ No. 4 Oklahoma (2-0), 8pm ET, ABC (Line: OU -21, O/U: 54.5)

I am not a total buyer of Oklahoma yet and I know many are saying that Tennessee will be a true test. I understand that, however, I think Tennessee is still too young to go into Norman and make this a game. Oklahoma is too talented on defense to allow the Vols to hang around in this one. I think Tennessee keeps this one closer than people expect and no way Oklahoma gets to their 55-point average on offense.

Tennessee started 21 true freshman in its opener two weeks ago and is so young that it is going to struggle a little bit in Norman. Just because it is young, does not mean it is not talented.  There is a ton of excellent young talent on this team. Quarterback Justin Worley and his offensive line have looked pretty good so far this season against lesser opponents, but don’t expect that this week against a deep, experienced Oklahoma defense. Worley is going to have to have the game of his life and his receivers are going to have to find space against a quick and intelligent Oklahoma secondary. If Worley can open of the field and get the ball to his leading receivers Marquez North and Von Pearson, the Vols could make this game interesting for 45 minutes.

Defensively, the Vols have played well allowing just 13 points per game and 7 to a talented Utah State offense. The problem for this young squad is the Oklahoma offense has scored 55 points per game and has a ton more speed and talent than Utah State or Arkansas State. The young Vols are going to need to grow up in a hurry to try and take down the Sooners at home.  

Oklahoma has looked good so far this season, but has yet to play a truly talented team.  As I said in the opening I am not totally sold on the Sooners yet because I haven’t seen them take down a good team. If they can run over Tennessee this weekend it might make me more of a believer. Part of the reason I am not sold on OU yet is because of quarterback Trevor Knight. I think Knight is a good player and could be a great quarterback for the Sooners, but I still think he gets a lot of hype for having one good game last season against Alabama. In two games Knight is averaging about 275 yards through the air and has tossed three scores. What is really making the Sooners go this season is its running game with Keith Ford and Alex Ross who have combined for 264 yards and seven touchdowns. This is what Oklahoma will need to rely on in this game.

On defense, Oklahoma is allowing 256 yards of offense a game which is 28^th in the country. Its defense is so fast and talented that it should be able to keep this young Tennessee offense off balance and keep Worley from making plays.

I think the Sooners win this game but I don’t think the 20.5 point spread is quite right. I am calling Tennessee to keep this one close for 45 minutes, but Oklahoma to score a couple late TDs to push this to a two or three score game.

Nick- Oklahoma 37, Tennessee 21

Jeremy- Oklahoma 31, Tennessee 27

 

No. 9 USC (2-0) @ Boston College (1-1), 8pm ET, ESPN/WatchESPN (Line: USC -18, O/U: 51)

The Trojans are coming off a huge win over Stanford last weekend and there’s no reason to think they won’t completely roll Boston College this week.  However, this game is intriguing to me because of the fact that SC is coming off a slugfest against the Cardinal, they’re traveling to the East Coast (which always seems to trip up West Coast teams) and BC is built in a similar mold as Stanford- tough, physical, aggressive.

The wild-card for BC is quarterback Tyler Murphy.  Murphy is an athletic kid with a really solid arm but the Eagles don’t protect him very well and he really struggles to complete passes consistently.  He’s completing just over 50% of his passes and only has 207 yards in two games.  The truth is, he’s a much better runner than passer and if BC can get creative, move the pocket and get Murphy running, they could make it interesting for the Trojans.

In my heart of hearts do I think BC has a chance to actually win the game?  No.  But, do I think they could make it much closer than it should be?  Definitely.

Jeremy- USC 34, Boston College 24

Nick- USC 34, BC 10

 

No. 21 Louisville (2-0) @ Virginia (0-1), 12:30pm ET, GamePlan/ESPN3 (Line: UL -7, O/U: 47.5)

Louisville has looked good so far this season, but Virginia is a sneaky good team and I think the Cavs could make this an interesting game. Virginia defense has a ton of experience and against Louisville’s high-powered offense that could make this one a fun one to watch. I think Virginia uses the experience it gained against UCLA and its offense to slow down the Cardinal offense and keep this game close into the fourth quarter. This is my upset pick of the week so I am calling Virginia to win this game.

Nick- Virginia 31, Louisville 28

Jeremy- Louisville 28, Virginia 24

 

 

Top 25

No. 1 Florida State (2-0), IDLE

Next game- Saturday, 9/20 vs. No. 23 Clemson

 

No. 3 Alabama (2-0) vs. Southern Miss (1-1), 6pm ET, ESPN2/WatchESPN (Line: BAMA -49, O/U: 55)

Alabama will control this game from start to finish but it’s hard to see a Nick Saban team cover this big of a spread.  I think the Tide will toy with their quarterbacks and we’ll see backups early and often.

Jeremy- Alabama 45, So. Miss 13

Nick- Alabama 41, So. Miss 13

 

No. 5 Auburn (2-0), IDLE

Next game- Thursday, 9/18 @ No. 19 Kansas State

 

No. 7 Texas A&M (2-0) vs. Rice (0-1), 9pm ET, ESPN2/WatchESPN (Line: TAMU -32, O/U: 71)

Kenny Hill or “Trill” or whatever the heck he’s dubbed himself after two weeks will put on a show and A&M will keep rolling.

Nick- TAMU 55, Rice 20

Jeremy- TAMU 61, Rice 21

 

No. 8 Baylor (2-0) @ Buffalo (1-1), Friday, 8pm ET, ESPN/WatchESPN (Line: BAY -34, O/U: 67.5)

Well, Bryce Petty’s back so I guess another 70-spot is not out of the question.

Nick- Baylor 63, Buffalo 21

Jeremy- Baylor 65, Buffalo 24

 

No. 10 LSU (2-0) vs. UL Monroe (2-0), 7pm ET, ESPNU/WatchESPN (Line: LSU -31, O/U: 52)

LSU has looked better in their first two games than many thought.  This is another great opportunity for their youngsters to continue their development. 

Nick- LSU 56, ULM 13

Jeremy- LSU 41, ULM 14

 

No. 11 Notre Dame (2-0) vs. Purdue (1-1), 7:30pm ET, NBC (Line: ND -28, O/U: 55.5)

Notre Dame is off to a great start.  Purdue has a history of making the Irish work to get wins in their series.  Will they be able to do it again?

Nick- Notre Dame 41, Purdue 13

Jeremy- Notre Dame 44, Purdue 17

 

No. 12 UCLA (2-0) @ Texas (1-1), Arlington, 8pm ET, FOX (Line: UCLA -8, O/U: 49.5)

Fortunately for UCLA, Texas is a mess.  Otherwise…

Nick- UCLA 31, Texas 20

Jeremy- UCLA 30, Texas 15

 

No. 13 Michigan State (1-1), IDLE

Next game- Saturday, 9/20 vs. Eastern Michigan

 

No. 14 Ole Miss (2-0) vs. LA-Lafayette (1-1), 4pm ET, SEC Network/WatchESPN (Line: MISS -28, O/U: 56)

Ole Miss is rolling so far and their defense looks like one of the best in the nation.  The question is will Bo Wallace have a good game or bad game?  I think good game and the Rebels will be in control from start to finish but 28 points is a bit much for me.

Jeremy- Ole Miss 45, LA-Lafayette 14

Nick- Ole Miss 38, LA-Lafayette 20

 

No. 15 Stanford (1-1) vs. Army (1-0), 5pm ET, ESPN/WatchESPN (Line: STAN -29, O/U: 53)

What a great opportunity for Stanford to work on its redzone offense.  They probably won’t get a ton of possessions, so the score will look more respectable than the actual game.

Jeremy- Stanford 37, Army 7

Nick- Stanford 48, Army 17

 

No. 16 Arizona State (2-0) @ Colorado (1-1), 10pm ET, ESPNU/WatchESPN (Line: ASU -16, O/U: 68)

It’s going to take ASU until the second quarter to get over the whole altitude thing and this one will be in the bag midway through the third quarter. 

Jeremy- ASU 48, Colorado 24

Nick- ASU 48, Colorado 20

 

No. 17 Virginia Tech (2-0) vs. E. Carolina (1-1), 12pm ET, ESPN/WatchESPN (Line: VT -11, O/U: 53.5)

This game is interesting.  Does VaTech have a letdown after such a big win at Ohio State last week? I usually hate the “trap game” or “letdown game” talk, but I think in this case it is possible. ECU is a talented offensive team that could give the Hokies a headache in the first couple quarters of this game. I think Lane Stadium and VaTech will disrupt ECU enough later in this game that it will stay off balance. After watching the Ohio State-Virginia Tech game again this week, I am beginning to buy VaTech stock. The Hokies defense is so tough and its offense is above average enough that it could be a serious contender this season. I think the ECU offense will put a little pressure on in this first half of this game but after that VaTech will run away. I like the Hokies to cover here.

Nick- VaTech, 27, ECU 13

Jeremy- VaTech 30, ECU 17

 

No. 18 Wisconsin (1-1), IDLE

Next game- Saturday, 9/20 vs. Bowling Green

 

No. 20 Missouri (2-0) vs. UCF (0-1), 12pm ET, SEC Network/WatchESPN (Line: MIZZ -10, O/U: 54.5)

Maty Mauk is the next big SEC quarterback and the Tigers have had no trouble scoring points so far this season.  I see them starting slow, but pulling away in the second half against UCF.

Jeremy- Mizzou 38, UCF 24

Nick- Missouri 31, UCF 10

 

 

No. 22 Ohio State (1-1) vs. Kent State (0-2), 12pm ET, ABC/ESPN2 (Line: OSU -32, O/U: 50.5)

This matchup is a perfect rebound opportunity for the Buckeyes.  And they’ll rebound.

Jeremy- Ohio State 45, Kent State 13

Nick- Ohio State 48, Kent State 13

 

No. 25 BYU (2-0) vs. Houston (1-1), Thursday, 9pm ET, ESPN/WatchESPN (Line: BYU -20 O/U: 57.5)

The Cougars are fresh off another big win over Texas and I see them rolling again here. 

Jeremy- BYU 38, Houston 17

 

 

 

Best of the Rest

 

Cincinnati (0-0) vs. Toledo (1-1), Firday, 7pm ET, ESPNU/WatchESPN (Line: CIN -11, O/U: 59.5)

Ok, so maybe this game isn’t that exciting but what else are you going to do on a Friday night during college football season?  Well, at least until the Baylor game.  And, it’s Cincinnati’s first game… so there’s that…

Jeremy- Cincinnati 38, Toledo 24

Nick- Cincy 45, Toledo 31

 

Arkansas (1-1) @ Texas Tech (2-0), 3:30pm ET, ABC (Line: TTU -2, O/U: 63.5)

Lubbock’s not an easy place to play but Texas Tech hasn’t played well at home or on the road.  Arkansas can run the football and they’re going to need to keep that going on the road and keep Texas Tech’s offense off the field.  I’m going to go out on a limb here and give this one to Arkansas.

Jeremy- Arkansas 34, Texas Tech 31

Nick- Arkansas 34, TTech 31

 

Iowa (2-0) vs. Iowa State (0-2), 3:30pm ET, ESPN/WatchESPN (Line: IOWA -10, O/U: 49)

Iowa State has won two of the last three in this series and at one point last week, Mark Mangino’s offense really came alive.  Iowa’s been pretty unimpressive in their first two games and considering their last three games have been decided by one, three and six points, I’m picking this one to be much closer than the 10 point spread.  Iowa’s a better team and being at home, they should get the win but I’m not confident in this pick.

Jeremy- Iowa 24, Iowa State 23

Nick- Iowa 24, ISU 7

 

Illinois (2-0) @ Washington (2-0), 4pm ET, FOX (Line: UW -12, O/U: 65)

Wes Lunt is chucking the ball all over the place with 741 yards and seven touchdowns in two games and he’s going against a Washington defense that just gave up 475 passing yards and 52 points against Easter Washington.  I’ve been one of the Huskies biggest cheerleaders the past few seasons and I’m going to give them one more shot and say they get on track this week.  If they fail, I’ll never pick them again!

Jeremy- Washington 41, Illinois 27

Nick- Washington 34, Illinois 20

 

Penn State (2-0) @ Rutgers (2-0), 8pm ET, BTN (Line: PSU -4, O/U: 52.5)

Before the season, no one would have looked twice at this game but today, it looks like it could be a pretty solid matchup.  Penn State is a pretty shaky 2-0 but with the NCAA sanctions being lifted there’s a whole new motivation for the Nittany Lions.  Rutgers is a surprising 2-0 and the offense, under Ralph Friedgen has looked good and has quarterback Gary Nova playing well.  Rutgers will show well in their inaugural b1g game but I think Penn State’s defense will really challenge Nova and the Scarlet Knights and come away with the win.

Jeremy- Penn State 30, Rutgers 24

Nick- Penn State 38, Rutgers 17

 

Florida (1-0) vs. Kentucky (2-0), 7:30pm ET, SEC Network/WatchESPN (Line: FLA -18, OU: 50.5)

Florida is coming off of a great 65-0 shutout of Eastern Michigan last week and will look to carry that momentum into this SEC matchup.  Kentucky is still below where they need to be talent-wise but they’re well coached and Mark Stoops has made his mark on the defense.  I think they’ll make the Gators work but they’re not going into the Swamp and coming out with a win.

Jeremy- Florida 30, Kentucky 17

Nick- Florida 24, Kentucky 17

 

Arizona (2-0) vs. Nevada (2-0), 11pm ET, Pac-12 Network (Line: AZ -16, O/U: 65.5)

Nevada is fresh off a victory over another Pac-12 school, beating Washington State last week, 23-14.  Arizona blew the doors off UNLV week one but took a step back, struggling at UTSA last week.  Nevada is a solid team led by senior, Cody Fajardo.  The Wolf Pack will keep this game close, but it’s hard to see them winning on the road at Arizona. 

Jeremy- Arizona 37, Nevada 24

Nick- Arizona 56, Nevada 45

 

Minnesota @ TCU, 4pm ET, FOX Sports 1 (Line: TCU -16, O/U: 49)

This is one of the more interesting non-top 25 games this week. Minnesota looks like it can run the ball on anyone and this will be the game that decides that. The Gophers are rushing for 230 yards per game, and I know against lower level teams. This should be a great match up with the No. 28 rushing offense of Minnesota against the No. 20 rushing defense of TCU. I think TCU has the speed and talent edge here, but if David Cobb starts running downhill for the Gophers this game could come down to the last possession. TCU is still unsure of its starting quarterback even after Trevon Boykin had a great game in week one so that is to Minnesota’s advantage. This game will be much closer than the 16 point spread to TCU. Look for this to be a one possession game. It is a tough one to pick, but I think TCU wins but does not cover the spread.

Nick- TCU 24, Minnesota 21

Jeremy- TCU 31, Minnesota 20

 

 

Players to Watch

 

Justin Worley, QB, Tennessee

Worley might be the second best quarterback in this game but he has the chance to make the biggest impact.  Tennessee’s offensive line will be overmatch, so it’s going to take everything in Worley’s arsenal if the Vols are going to have a chance.

 

Wes Lunt, QB, Illinois

The Huskies have looked very beatable the first two weeks and Lunt, coming off a 456 yard, three touchdown performance against Western Kentucky last week will be the difference for the Illini. 

 

Jeff Driskel, QB, Florida

Kentucky is an improving defensive football team and Mark Stoops has seen Jeff Driskel before.  Driskel looked comfortable in his first game under OC Kurt Roper but this will be much more of a test than Eastern Michigan. 

 

Justin Holman, QB, UCF

The Knights have only played one game and Holman, only about a half but the half he played, UCF looked like a completely different offense.  He’s a bit of a mystery, but if Holman moves this offense as well as he did in week one against Penn State, they might make it interesting against Missouri.

 

Alex Collins, RB, Arkansas

Collins is an exciting, young running back and he’s got a chance to help carry the Hogs to a victory in a hostile environment in Lubbock.  The Red Raiders defense has been shaky, so look for Coach Bielema to go to Collins early and often.

 

 

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