Monday, September 15, 2014

Week 3- Wins, Losses and Lessons!


Summary
It seems like every time we overlook a weekend that is supposed to be all chalk and no good games we end up with what happened this weekend. This week may not have had the juicy matchups that some of the other weeks will have or have had, but this was a great week to watch college football. One thing that we all learned this weekend is you never know what you can get from a team to start the season. Never put too much stock into a team after wins, losses or near misses in week one. Ask Virginia Tech, Louisville, USC, Georgia and others from this weekend of ranked teams who fell victim to the hype.

Georgia may be the only team to come out ok after its loss to South Carolina. The Dawgs can win out or get some big wins down the stretch and still have a chance to make the Playoff. All the rest of the teams with the exception of USC are probably gone. USC like Georgia would have to win out and that includes at Pac-12 title game. I don’t think USC can beat Oregon so I don’t see them with a chance.

The moral of the story here is no matter what the weekend of college football looks like on paper when the ball is kicked on Saturday at noon ET anything can happen.

Winners

Boston College
The win over SC is BC’s first over a top 10 opponent since 2004 and one that could carry a lot of weight as playoff talk heats up in November (not for BC, but this is a big check against the Trojans).  Boston College ran the ball all over USC’s defense, going for 452 yards on the ground and defensively, held SC to a paltry 20.

South Carolina
The sky was falling for the Gamecocks (at least that was the perception) but Spurrier rallied the troops and they got a big SEC East win over rival Georgia.  It turns out that SC wasn’t as bad as we all thought and maybe UGA isn’t quite as good as we thought.

Virginia
Mike London and the Hoos get their first win over an FBS foe in 378 days.  Given the way Virginia played in week one against UCLA, a big win over Richmond last week and their win over Louisville this weekend, things seem to be looking up for UVA. 

Losers

*Insert B1G here until further notice.

USC
After an impressive win on the road at Stanford last weekend the Trojans followed up by falling flat on their face against Boston College.  You can make all the excuses you want- East Coast travel, beat up from the week before, lack of depth, but if this team were for real, they would have figured out a way to win this game.  The Trojans were dominated on the line of scrimmage on both sides of the ball getting out rushed 452-20 (8.4 yards per attempt to .7… that’s 0.7!!!).  Inexcusable.

Virginia Tech
I think I may have been one of the first to jump on the bandwagon to Blacksburg, but that came to a crashing halt on Saturday. Virginia Tech looked about as bad as you can when trying to back up a big win from the week before. I was calling for the Hokies to be possibly giving Florida State in the ACC title game now I am looking to see what six to eight wins they get. It looked as if this team had an above average defense and a pretty good offense against Ohio State but then looked below average against ECU one week later. The good thing for this team is it has a very manageable schedule the rest of the season, but can it avoid another let down?

Overreactions

Look for people to go crazy over South Carolina and completely dump Georgia.  The Gamecocks were in a free fall the past two weeks and beating UGA, people will overreact and make way too much of this win.  It’s a good win to be sure, and much needed but beating Georgia at home doesn’t cure all of South Carolina’s ills.  They still need to play with more consistency in the secondary and Georgia racked up 217 rushing yards and 8.7 ypc (ah-hem! Someone please forward that to whoever calls the plays in the redzone for Georgia).

We mentioned it above (see Winners section) that we were probably a little too down on SC and a little too high on Georgia.  Both teams will be squarely in the mix for SEC East and will have a say in the playoff. 

Notre Dame as a contender.  Let me be clear.  It’s not that I don’t think Notre Dame can be a contender.  I just don’t think they should be considered one yet.  Notre Dame is one of the few teams where we completely overreact to every win and every loss.  The Irish are 3-0 so clearly they’re among the best teams in college football, right?  Well, of their three wins, non are really overly impressive.  The Michigan win looks impressive on the surface but the Wolverines are a mess, so it’s difficult to really gauge Notre Dame from that win.  Like I said, the Irish have potential, they’re just not there yet.



Observations

This playoff thing is going to get really fun and really messy the further we get into the college football season.  I have a feeling we’re going to have a lot of one loss and two loss teams in late November and sorting them all out is going to get awfully nit-picky. 

BYU will be this season’s darling turned thorn-in-everyone’s-side.  We all love a Cinderella story until we don’t and they we want it to go away as fast as possible.

The Pac-12 has eight undefeated teams…  Cal and Utah are among them… Stanford and USC are not.

Power 5 Non-Conference records:  SEC- 27-2, Pac-12- 25-4, ACC- 27-5, Big-12- 18-7, B1G- 23-13



Top 25 Picks Review


No. 1 Florida State (2-0), IDLE
Next game- Saturday, 9/20 vs. No. 23 Clemson
                               
No. 2 Oregon 48, Wyoming 14
The final score might not be quite what we expected but Oregon was in control from start to finish. 
Jeremy- Oregon 58, Wyoming 13
Nick- Oregon 63, Wyoming 17

No. 3 Alabama 52, Southern Miss 12
It was smooth sailing for the Tide.  Sims and Coker each played, again, and Amari Cooper posted his third straight 100-yard game.  Alabama ran for 333 yards and controlled the ball for 46:52.  A true Sabanesk performance.
Jeremy- Alabama 45, So. Miss 13
Nick- Alabama 41, So. Miss 13


Tennessee 10, No. 4 Oklahoma 34
Tennessee has a lot they can learn from this trip to Norman.  The Vols have talent but their youth was evident and at times seemed overwhelmed by the environment. 
Nick- Oklahoma 37, Tennessee 21
Jeremy- Oklahoma 31, Tennessee 27

No. 5 Auburn (2-0), IDLE
Next game- Thursday, 9/18 @ No. 19 Kansas State

No. 6 Georgia 35, No. 24 South Carolina 38
We’ve beat this one to death.  Next.
Nick- UGA 31, South Carolina 27
Jeremy- Georgia 34, South Carolina 24

No. 7 Texas A&M 38, Rice 10
Kenny Hill threw for 300 yards and four touchdowns (making it 11 for the season) as A&M sailed past Rice.  Despite the slow start A&M is 3-0 for the first time since 2010 and through three games the defense is giving up only 13.7ppg compared to 36ppg through three games last year.
Nick- TAMU 55, Rice 20
Jeremy- TAMU 61, Rice 21

No. 8 Baylor 63, Buffalo 21
Ho-hum.  We won’t really know much about this Baylor team until October… or maybe November.        
Nick- Baylor 63, Buffalo 21
Jeremy- Baylor 65, Buffalo 24

No. 9 USC 31, Boston College 37
Again, we’ve covered this one.  See above.
Jeremy- USC 34, Boston College 24
Nick- USC 34, BC 10


No. 10 LSU 31, UL Monroe 0
31-0 might not look that dominant but its LSU’s second shutout in as many weeks.  With SEC play looming, the young Tigers are gaining valuable experience.   
Nick- LSU 56, ULM 13
Jeremy- LSU 41, ULM 14

No. 11 Notre Dame 30, Purdue 14
Purdue usually plays well above their talent level and gives the Irish fits.  That was the case yet again as the Boilermakers played Notre Dame close for a half- 17-14, but the Irish pulled away down the stretch.
Nick- Notre Dame 41, Purdue 13
Jeremy- Notre Dame 44, Purdue 17

No. 12 UCLA 20, Texas 17
This win was actually better for UCLA than the final score would indicate.  While the Bruins have struggled so far this season, losing Brett Hundley early in the one could have been a dagger through the heart.  Instead, UCLA hung tough and rallied around backup Jerry Neuheisel.
Nick- UCLA 31, Texas 20
Jeremy- UCLA 30, Texas 15

No. 13 Michigan State (1-1), IDLE
Next game- Saturday, 9/20 vs. Eastern Michigan

No. 14 Ole Miss 56, LA-Lafayette 15
Ole Miss looks dan-ger-ous.  Wallace and the Rebels put the Ragin’ Caguns away in a hurry, jumping out to a 28-6 halftime lead and the blowing the doors off with a 21-point third quarter.   
Nick- Ole Miss 45, LA-Lafayette 14
Jeremy- Ole Miss 38, LA-Lafayette 20

No. 15 Stanford 35, Army 0
This was a good bounce-back game for the Cardinal, who are still working through inconsistency on offense. 
Jeremy- Stanford 37, Army 7
Nick- Stanford 48, Army 17

No. 16 Arizona State 38, Colorado 24
ASU won the game but suffered what could be a season changing injury.  Taylor Kelly went down late in the third quarter with an ankle injury.  No timetable has been set for his return.  Bad, bad timing as ASU’s next four games are- UCLA, @USC, Stanford and @ Washington.
Jeremy- ASU 48, Colorado 24
Nick- ASU 48, Colorado 20

No. 17 Virginia Tech 21, East Carolina 28
The Hokies defense had no answers early allowing ECU to jump out to a 21-0 lead.  They regrouped in the second and third quarter only to falter late in the fourth with the game on the line.  Offensively, I have some major concerns about Michael Brewer.
Nick- VaTech, 27, ECU 13
Jeremy- VaTech 30, ECU 17

No. 18 Wisconsin (1-1), IDLE
Next game- Saturday, 9/20 vs. Bowling Green

No. 20 Missouri 38, UCF 10
Maty Mauk stole the show with four touchdowns but the defense gave UCF fits forcing four turnovers. 
Jeremy- Mizzou 38, UCF 24
Nick- Missouri 31, UCF 10

No. 21 Louisville 21, Virginia 23
It wasn’t pretty for Mike London and the Cavs but a win’s a win and they needed this one more than ever.  The defense played well and really got after ill Gardner and the Louisville offense, especially late.
Nick- Virginia 31, Louisville 28
Jeremy- Louisville 28, Virginia 24

No. 22 Ohio State 66, Kent State 0
… and they rebounded.  The Buckeyes put their week 2 loss to Virginia Tech behind them and JT Barrett had a record tying day with six touchdowns. 
Jeremy- Ohio State 45, Kent State 13           
Nick- Ohio State 48, Kent State 13

No. 25 BYU 33, Houston 25
Jeremy- BYU 38, Houston 17




Best of the Rest

Cincinnati 58, Toledo 34
Jeremy- Cincinnati 38, Toledo 24
Nick- Cincy 45, Toledo 31

Arkansas 49, Texas Tech 28
Jeremy- Arkansas 34, Texas Tech 31
Nick- Arkansas 34, TTech 31

Iowa 17, Iowa State 20
Jeremy- Iowa 24, Iowa State 23
Nick- Iowa 24, ISU 7

Illinois 19, Washington 44
Jeremy- Washington 41, Illinois 27
Nick- Washington 34, Illinois 20


Penn State 13, Rutgers 10
Jeremy- Penn State 30, Rutgers 24
Nick- Penn State 38, Rutgers 17

Florida 36, Kentucky 30
Jeremy- Florida 30, Kentucky 17
Nick- Florida 24, Kentucky 17

Arizona 35, Nevada 28
Jeremy- Arizona 37, Nevada 24
Nick- Arizona 56, Nevada 45

Minnesota 7, TCU 30
Nick- TCU 24, Minnesota 21
Jeremy- TCU 31, Minnesota 20



Week 3 Players to Watch- Report Card

Justin Worley, QB, Tennessee- C-
It was a tough night all around for the Vols.  Worley kept fighting despite constant pressure (sacked 5 times) but was unable to complete even 50% of his passes and managed only 4.6 yards per completion against a very sound Sooner defense.  Better days are ahead for Tennessee.

Wes Lunt, QB, Illinois
It was a tall task for Lunt and the Illini and unfortunately they got the Huskies at the wrong time.  Lunt struggled all day and managed a meager 15.8 QBR.

Jeff Driskel, QB, Florida- B-
Driskel was good, not great on Saturday night in “The Swamp” but he did make played when he needed to finding Demarcus Robinson for 15 of his 25 completions and 216 of his 295 passing yards.  Driskel threw for three touchdowns and one interception. 

Justin Holman, QB, UCF- C-
Holman struggled to get the UCF offense going on Saturday, throwing for only 209 yards, one touchdown and two picks. 

Alex Collins, RB, Arkansas- A
The Razorback ground game was all over Texas Tech Saturday, going for a total of 438 with Alex Collins leading the way (212 yards on 27 carries and two touchdowns).  Fellow running back Jonathan Williams added 145 yards and four touchdowns on 22 carries. 


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