Nick and I differ quite a bit here in our teams ranked 20-16. We both seem to agree on Oregon State but I had Louisville at 21. As for Oklahoma and Oklahoma State... well, stay tuned!
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#20- Oregon State
A painfully
young team in 2011 has given way to solid, experienced 2012 and 2013
teams. The Beavers over-achieved a bit
last year but under Mike Riley they’re always going to be competitive. Whether it’s Vaz or Mannion at quarterback,
the Beavers should have a solid rushing attack to rely on with four returning
starters along the offensive line and a running back in Storm Woods who nearly
eclipsed 1,000 yards. The receiver
position looks promising as well, led by 1,151 yard playmaker Brandin
Cooks.
The defense
returns seven starters from an aggressive 2012 squad. Additions from the junior college ranks could
give the line up to eight starters rotating along four positions. The linebackers and secondary have plenty of
playmakers, and will make the Beavers a tough-out in the deep Pac-12
North.
Look for a
strong start for the Beavers (7-0 isn’t out of the question) but the schedule
gets significantly more difficult by the end of October. OSU’s final five games are; home against
Stanford and USC, at ASU, home against Washington and they finish with the
‘Civil War’ on the road at Oregon. What
will likely be a strong start could very well end up 7-5. 8-4 or 9-3 seems more likely.
#19- UCLA
UCLA came
out of nowhere last year and nearly won the Pac-12. Led by a dynamic freshman quarterback in
Brett Hundley and a record setting running back Johnathan Franklin, UCLA went
from perennial underachiever to Pac-12 South Champs. Franklin is gone to the NFL, leaving a huge
void in a ground game UCLA desperately needs if they intend to stay on top of
the division. Brett Hundley, who threw
for 3,740 yards and 29 touchdowns last season, is back and should be another
year better as a sophomore. His
improvement, however, will be directly tied to whether a shaky offensive line
can protect him- Hundley was sacked 52 times last season. If given time, Hundley has the skills and the
weapons to make UCLA one of the more potent offensive forces in the conference.
The real
question mark for the 2013 Bruins will be the defense. Last year’s unit ranked 76th in
total defense and gave up 30 or more points in six games last year, including
49 point, 494 yard thrashing at the hands of the Baylor Bears. There’s hope for improvement, though, with
what should be a solid front seven led by what could be the best group of
linebackers in the conference. The front
seven will need to be dominant early as a painfully young secondary gets
acclimated to life in the Pac-12.
If the
Bruins intend to make a return trip to the Pac-12 Championship game, they’ll
have to do it on the road. A September
14 trip to Nebraska won’t have conference implications, but a good showing
could give the Bruins some needed confidence as the meat of their Pac-12
schedule is on the road. With road games
at Utah, back to back at Stanford and Oregon, as well as Arizona and USC, Jim
Mora’s got his work cut out for him.
#18- Nebraska
The Huskers
might be the best bet to unseat the Buckeyes in the B1G this season. Taylor Martinez made some nice strides as a
passer in 2012 (2,871 passing yards & 23 TD’s) and if he continues to
progress, this team could really make some noise. A talented, experienced line anchored by RG
Spencer Long returns to block for Martinez (1,019 rushing yards and 10 TD’s)
and junior running back Ameer Abdullah (1,137 yards & 8 TD’s) will take
some pressure off Martinez. When the
Huskers go to the air, Martinez will have no shortage of weapons. Junior Kenny Bell (50 catches, 863 yards, 8
TD’s)returns along with Quincy Enunwa and Jamal Turner who combined for 74
receptions, 877 yards and 4 TD’s last season.
The Huskers
should have one of the most potent offenses in the B1G, but it’s the defense
that will likely keep Nebraska from a conference championship and a BCS
birth. The traditionally powerful Husker
defense finished the season ranked a fairly respectable 35th in
total defense but when the competition got tough the “Blackshirts” broke. The Huskers four losses look less like a B1G
contender and more like a non-AQ bottom feeder.
The defense gave up 36 points and 653 yards to UCLA, 63 points and 493
yards (371 rushing) at Ohio State, 70 points and 640 yards (539 rushing) to a
7-5 Wisconsin team in the B1G Championship, and 45 points and 589 yards to
Georgia in the Capitol One Bowl. The
defense will be young and inexperienced in 2013, returning only five starters
from a season ago.
To go far in college football, you’re going to have to win a few big road games- and unless the defense improves, it’s going to be another year of missed opportunity in Lincoln. The schedule is much less daunting this year however, as the Huskers get Pac-12 South champ, UCLA, in Lincoln on Sept. 14 and don’t leave the friendly confines of Memorial Stadium until Oct. 12 for game day at Purdue. The Huskers should be 7-0 or 6-1 headed into what will be a tough final five weeks; vs. N’Western, at Michigan, vs. Michigan State, at Penn State and home vs. Iowa. Ten wins and a return trip to the B1G Championship is a possibility, but they’ll need continued improvement from Taylor Martinez and the passing game, and as for any defense- this defense will have to pitch in and make a stop here and there.
#17- Boise State
Boise State
put together their quietest 11-win season in recent memory in 2012. After a close week 1 loss at Michigan State,
they fell off the BCS radar. Despite the
two losses, the Broncos still won 11 (they’ve won at least 10 games, seven
years in a row) and beat another BCS conference foe, Washington, in the MAACO
Bowl Las Vegas. The Broncos lose seven
starters from an offense that averaged 30.2 points per game but should be
better this year- the second for starting quarterback, Joe Southwick. Matt Miller and Kirby Moore return as leading
receivers (combined for 1,137 yards and 6 TD’s). At running back, the Broncos will have to
replace DJ Harper and his 1,207 yards and 15 touchdowns. That job will fall into the very capable
hands of sophomore Jay Ajayi, who ran for 559 yards and 4 touchdowns last year
averaging 6.7 yards per carry. Ajayi
will push to surpass Harper’s numbers form 2012.
The Broncos
defense should, once again, be a stingy unit.
They’re led by an explosive defensive line which looks to be one of the
strongest units on the team. Demarcus
Lawrence and Ricky Tjong-A-Tjoe will anchor a unit that produced 38 sacks last
season- and they’ll need all the pressure they can get with some of the high-flying
offense they’ll face this season. Darian
Thompson and Jeremy Loane are playmakers on the back end. The defensive line and secondary will need to
play well, as an inexperienced group of linebackers will take the field this
year.
Boise State may have one of their toughest conference schedules ever this year as the MWC has continued to push to become the best of the non-AQ’s. Boise opens the season at a renovated Husky Stadium where a very talented Washington team awaits with revenge in mind. The road slate is daunting, with games at Fresno State, Utah State, BYU, Colorado State and San Diego State. The Broncos will likely be better than the 2012 version, and another 10-win season seems likely- but they’ll really have to earn it this year.
#16- LSU
It’s odd to
have LSU this low on the list, but 11 underclassmen, along with four other
senior starters, left for the NFL- and there are big question marks on offense
going into 2013. Despite the losses on defense (7 starters from 2012) perhaps
the biggest question mark for LSU is at quarterback. Zach Mettenberger (58% completion, 2,609
passing yards, 12 TD’s and 7 INT’s) was supposed to usher in a new era in LSU
offense… instead, the offense struggled throughout the season (ranked 85 in
total offense) and ground to a halt in losses to Florida (200 total yards) and
Clemson (219 total yards). Mettenberger
will have to take a huge step forward in 2013 for LSU to really make a run in
the SEC West, especially with the uncertainty surrounding last season’s leading
rusher, Jeremy Hill. New offensive
coordinator Cam Cameron should help and with a solid line and a loaded
receiving corps returning, Mettenberger will have plenty of help.
LSU will
have to replace all four starters on the defensive line, linebacker Kevin
Minter, and starters Therold Simon and Eric Reid in the secondary. Even for a program like LSU, that’s a lot of
talent to replace, and it’s hard not to imagine some growing pains in
2013. Tackles Anthony Johnson and Ego
Ferguson will anchor the defensive line, while Tahj Jones and Lamin Barrow
bring plenty of experience to the linebacker corps. The secondary is young but got some good
experience last season- and players like Jalen Mills and Craig Loston could
have big seasons for the Tiger defense.
The schedule
will do no favors for a team with so much uncertainty. LSU opens the season with a road game in
“Jerry-world” to take on what could be a dangerous TCU team. They play Georgia and Florida from the SEC
East and go on to Ole Miss and have back to back games at Alabama and home
against Texas A&M. A fourth
consecutive ten win season seems like a long shot but one should never count
out the “Mad-Hatter” and his Bayou Bangles.
Nick
No. 20-Oregon State
This
is another one of those stretches in my top 25 because this team could go from
a 9-4 season in 2012 right back to a 3-9 season. I do like what coach Mike
Riley has done with this team. He has made it a solid defensive team with a
good rushing attack, which is refreshing in the very highflying Pac-12.
On
offense, this team played two quarterbacks during the 2012 season that usually
does not lead to much success, but the Beavers made it work with a solid
running game. Good thing for the offense is its returns all three its leading
rushers led by 1,000-yard rusher Storm Woods. Freshman All-American quarterback Sean Mannion and the
running trio could have a solid season behind a experienced offensive line that
boasts four returning starters.
Defensively,
Oregon State finished the season No. 30 in total defense and No. 27 in rushing
defense. The Beaver defense could be better in 2013 with the potential to be
top 20 or even top 15 in both defensive categories. The unit returns all five
of its top tacklers. Linebacker Michael Doctor and safety Ryan Murphy, both of
whom could have huge seasons, lead the defensive backfield. This is an
experienced defense who had success in 2012 and could match that if not surpass
it in 2013.
This
team probably will not challenge Oregon for the conference title or even the
best team in the Beaver State. Not having Stanford on the schedule and saving
Oregon for the last game of the season could be good for this team. Eastern
Washington and Hawai’i to start the season should get this team off to a good
start.
No. 19-Kansas State
Two
in a row you ask…yeah I know this team will be welcoming a new quarterback
after Colin Klein graduated. That being said they do return 10 starters and
eight on offense. I still think this team could make a little noise in the Big
12.
You
cannot talk about the potential of this team without mentioning the quarterback
position. Losing All-America
quarterback Klein is tough for this team but returning eight of 11 starters on
offense defiantly helps. Top rusher John Hubert returns at running back along
with four of five offensive linemen. It looks like sophomore Daniel Sims will
start the season at quarterback but he is young and inexperienced after
throwing just eight passes in 2012.
The
Wildcat defense could be the problem for this team. It returns just two
starters from a squad that really overachieved last season. Adding depth to
this defense could be a lot of junior college players brought in during the of
season. If some solid JUCO players can gel together and make this a cohesive
unit I think the Wildcats could be in for a pretty good defensive season.
Kansas
State could have a pretty solid season if quarterback Daniel Sims can grow up
in a hurry and the experience on offense can lead them along. The defense will
need to gel together quickly in order for this team to have a chance at a Big
12 crown. The schedule for this team looks pretty good with road trips to Okla.
St. and Texas, but five home games could be a huge positive for this team
looking for a fast start. If this team gets hot like it did last year it could
make a run a conference title, but I wouldn’t expect that.
No. 18-Oklahoma State
I
know a lot of people and “experts” have this team in the top 15, however I just
do not see it. The Cowboys schedule looks pretty favorable with most of their
toughest games, Oklahoma and TCU at home. It will be interesting to see how
this team responds from a somewhat disappointing 8-5 season in 2012.
Offensively
this team could be pretty solid, but that will depend totally on how senior
Clint Chelf handles the quarterback position. This wide open spread offense
needs solid quarterback play to be successful. Chelf averaged just over 300
yards and three touchdowns in the five games he started last season. If he can
keep those numbers up within new offensive coordinator Mike Yurcich’s offense this
could be a high-scoring team (when are they not?). With seven returning
starters including three on the offensive line this team has the ability to
make some noise in the Big 12. Those experienced offensive linemen should be
able to keep Chelf upright. According to its depth chart this team will have
eight other upperclassmen starting on offense, which could help Chelf make some
big plays.
With
teams that play such a wide-open style of offense it is tough to decide how the
defense is going to be. This unit returns seven starters from last season’s
pretty mediocre performance. It was 64th in scoring and 80th
in yards allowed. The good thing coming from that is there is a lot of
experience on the line with three upperclassmen. Seniors Shaun Lewis and Caleb
Lavey should handle the linebacking duties well. In the secondary, seniors
Justin Gilbert, Shamiel Gary and Daytawlon Lowe will make this a solid unit.
The
Cowboys have a very good chance at making a run in a very wide-open Big 12 this
season. There is no clear-cut favorite and lots of teams that if they get hot
they could make some noise. Oklahoma State will always have the chance to put
up some serious points, but the question is if they can stop anyone. We will
see what Mike Gundy and company can do this season to come back from a
disappointing 8-5 in 2012. I think they team’s schedule gives it a chance to
maybe win 10 games if it can get some bounces.
No.
17-Oklahoma
There
are a lot of weapons returning for the Sooners, but the loss of Landry Jones at
quarterback will make it hard to repeat a 10-win season.
Like
I just said the loss of Landry Jones will be the key for this offense, but
junior Blake Bell had an excellent “Tim Tebow” season last year running the
ball in every short-yardage redzone situation. I like how the kid can run, but
how can he pass? We will see if he really is the next great Sooner quarterback
with an early date at Notre Dame on Sept. 28. Bell is not without weapons
around him. Running back Damien Williams nearly had a 1,000-yard season last
year and scored 11 touchdowns. His receivers are a little young, but two
returning starters in Jalen Saunders and Sterling Shepard should handle the
load just fine. The line is solid and experienced full of upperclassmen which should
keep Bell on his feet in the pocket. With the super up-tempo offensive
coordinator Josh Heupel hopes to play this team will be top 15 in total offense
again.
This
teams defense is were I see a problem. They return just three starters from
last season, that finished 64th in total defense. Senior linebacker
Corey Nelson is a stud and will have to hold down the front of this defense. In
the secondary, corner Aaron Colvin is one of the best players in the league and
should show that by making some big plays for this unit. I am not sold on this
defense and if this team gets in a situation where it needs a big play from it,
I do not see it making that play.
A
big early test at Notre Dame will really show where this team is in 2013. With
TCU at home, Texas in Dallas (as always) they have a good chance to steal those
games, but with Kansas State and Bedlam (Oklahoma State) on the road to end the
season it will be tough to win both of those. I don’t see the as a 10-win team
again this season, but you never know some solid road wins and a win against
TCU early in the season could make this team a contender.
No. 16- Louisville
I
know this is the team that most everyone has in the top 10, but I tend to agree
with Jeremy that it will go undefeated by who really cares in the Big East, oh
wait it’s the American Athletic Conference now. Looking at this teams schedule
it is pretty pathetic, the toughest game is maybe the last one of the season at
Cincinnati. No way I don’t see this team winning at least 10 games, but against
what type of competition? Anyway I think this team has some pretty solid
weapons, most notably junior signal caller Teddy Bridgewater.
Bridgewater
will lead this offense that only returns five starters from a season ago. This
unit was pretty mediocre last season ranking in the 50’s in scoring offense and
total offense and below 100 in rushing. Don’t expect any of those to change.
The Cardinals are loaded with upperclassmen on offense but not all of them have
great playing experience. The left side of the offensive line should be pretty
good with tackle Jamon Brown, guard John Miller and center Jake Smith all
returning. Breaking in a new running back and two new receivers should be a
little tough, but senior Damian Copeland should be able to handle the main
receiving duties. Not sure what to think about this offense Bridgewater is one
of the best quarterbacks in the country but he was just as good last season and
this offense struggled at times.
On
defense, no doubt this team should be pretty good. When you have a defensive
coach like Charlie Strong you know this unit will be solid, it also helps
having seven returning starters from a top 25 total defensive performance. The
line will be very experienced with senior Brandon Dunn and Marcus Smith as the
anchors. Linebackers George Durant and Preston Brown will help sophomore Keith
Brown make some big plays by taking blocks. The best part of this defense will
be the secondary, which finished last season No. 16 in passing defense. All
four defenders are upperclassmen led by senior safety Hakeem Smith who has
38-consecutive starts. This unit
should have another top 25 season and even improve in some places.
Overall
this team should have no trouble winning the American Athletic Conference title
but that is because it is the only quality team in the entire conference. The
Cardinals probably will not even be challenged until a trip to Cincinnati on Dec.
5. This team should be playing in the Orange Bowl come seasons end, but with
that being its first actual game against a quality opponent it may have some
issues.
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