Week 12 Top 25

Top 25

RK	CFB Playoff Poll	AP Poll	Jeremy	Nick
1	Mississippi State	Mississippi State	Mississippi State	Mississippi State
2	Oregon	Florida State	Florida State	Florida State
3	Florida State	Oregon	Oregon	Oregon
4	TCU	Alabama	TCU	TCU
5	Alabama	TCU	Alabama	Alabama
6	Arizona State	Baylor	Baylor	Baylor
7	Baylor	Arizona State	Arizona State	Arizona State
8	Ohio State	Ohio State	Auburn	Auburn
9	Auburn	Auburn	Ohio State	Nebraska
10	Ole Miss	Ole Miss	Nebraska	Ohio State
11	UCLA	Nebraska	Ole Miss	Ole Miss
12	Michigan State	Michigan State	Kansas State	Michigan State
13	Kansas State	Kansas State	Georgia	Kansas State
14	Arizona	UCLA	Michigan State	Georgia
15	Georgia	Notre Dame	UCLA	Notre Dame
16	Nebraska	Georgia	Notre Dame	UCLA
17	LSU	Arizona	Duke	Duke
18	Notre Dame	Clemson	Clemson	Clemson
19	Clemson	Duke	LSU	Arizona
20	Wisconsin	LSU	Arizona	Wisconsin
21	Duke	Marshall	Wisconsin	LSU
22	Georgia Tech	Wisconsin	Georgia Tech	Colorado State
23	Utah	Colorado State	Colorado State	Marshall
24	Texas A&M	Georgia Tech	Marshall	Georgia Tech
25	Minnesota	Utah	Texas A&M	Minnesota

Playoff Picture

The college football playoff picture is beginning to come into focus.  There are a few big weeks left, especially in the SEC and I’ll get into that in the “Bubble Watch.”  For the current teams in the top five, it’s a win and you’re in deal.  Mississippi State plays at Alabama next Saturday in what is essentially an elimination game.  Given the position Florida State, Oregon and TCU are in, they simply need to win out and let the SEC take care of itself.  The loss of Michigan State hurts the Big Ten but Ohio State should get a boost with their blowout win in East Lansing.  The Buckeyes look like they’ve improved significantly since their early season debacle against Virginia Tech, but they’ll need some help to get in.  

If the playoff started today, here’s how I see the seeding.

1 Seed- SEC Champ (13-0 MSU or 12-1 Alabama)

2 Seed- 13-0 FSU

3 Seed- 12-1 Oregon

4 Seed- 11-1 TCU

5 Seed- SEC #2 (2-loss Auburn or Ole Miss)

6 Seed- 12-1 Ohio State

Bubble Watch

TCU

The Horned Frogs notched another impressive win on Saturday with a decisive 41-20 victory over an undefeated Kansas State team.  The win give TCU its fourth win over teams ranked in the top 25 at game time (OU was 4th, OK St was 15th, WVU was 20th and K-State 7th).  This team has a dynamic offense with a quarterback who should find himself on some Heisman lists this week and the defense that can make enough plays to win games.  Should TCU win out, they should have the edge over a one-loss Ohio State or Nebraska and at 11-1 should be a lock for a four seed.

Ohio State/B1G

Things got very interesting for the B1G on Saturday.  Ohio State’s dominant win over #8 Michigan State was impressive and combined with what they’ve done since their loss to Virginia Tech, should ease the committees concerns a bit.  That said, given their schedule and the status of the conference, the Buckeyes have a long way yet to climb to make the playoff.  Assuming Ohio State wins out, they’ll have only two wins over ranked teams- Michigan State (who lost by 19 at Oregon) and a win over Nebraska (who lost to Michigan State) or Wisconsin (losses to LSU and Northwestern).  I’m not sure that resume will be enough to get the Buckeyes in on their own- they’re going to need some help.

The B1G in general is in an interesting position.  We discussed the Buckeyes above, but what about Nebraska?  Could they be the ‘out of nowhere team’ this year?  They’re currently ranked No . 8 in the College Football Playoff Poll, sitting at 8-1 on the season.  Should they win out and win the B1G Championship, they would have finished with wins over Wisconsin, Minnesota, Iowa and Ohio State.  I think a 12-1 Nebraska might have a better shot than a 12-1 Ohio State for two reasons.  First, they actually have a quality non-conference win- 41-31 over a Miami team that will likely finish as a fringe top 25 team.  Second, the Huskers one loss was 27-22 at Michigan State.  Granted, OSU just crushed MSU, but Ohio State’s loss was that 35-21 black eye to a Virginia Tech team that might not make a bowl game.  Regardless of who finishes atop the B1G, the conference is on the outside looking in.

Arizona State

The Sun Devils made a big statement on Saturday with a very impressive 55-31 undressing of Notre Dame.  The win moves ASU to 8-1 on the season with wins over USC, Stanford, Washington, Utah and now Notre Dame (SC, Stanford, Utah and ND were all ranked at the time they played).  They currently sit at No. 6, their fate seems to be in their hands.  Assuming they finish the regular season undefeated and beat Oregon in the Pac-12 Championship, the Sun Devils would have as strong a resume as anyone and would likely end up as a three or four seed.