Week 10 Top 25

RK	AP Poll	CFB Playoff Committee Poll	Jeremy	Nick
1	Mississippi State	Mississippi State	Mississippi State	Florida State
2	Florida State	Florida State	Florida State	Mississippi State
3	Alabama	Auburn	Alabama	Alabama
4	Auburn	Ole Miss	Oregon	Oregon
5	Oregon	Oregon	Auburn	TCU
6	Notre Dame	Alabama	Michigan State	Auburn
7	Ole Miss	TCU	TCU	Michigan State
8	Michigan State	Michigan State	Georgia	Ole Miss
9	Georgia	Kansas State	Ole Miss	Kansas State
10	TCU	Notre Dame	Notre Dame	Notre Dame
11	Kansas State	Georgia	Kansas State	Georgia
12	Baylor	Arizona	Arizona State	Baylor
13	Ohio State	Baylor	Baylor	Nebraska
14	Arizona	Arizona State	Nebraska	LSU
15	Arizona State	Nebraska	Ohio State	Utah
16	LSU	Ohio State	Utah	Ohio State
17	Nebraska	Utah	Arizona	Arizona State
18	Utah	Oklahoma	LSU	Arizona
19	Oklahoma	LSU	Clemson	Clemson
20	West Virginia	West Virginia	Oklahoma	West Virginia
21	East Carolina	Clemson	West Virginia	Oklahoma
22	Clemson	UCLA	Duke	Marshall
23	Marshall	East Carolina	Marshall	East Carolina
24	Duke	Duke	East Carolina	Duke
25	UCLA	Louisville	Stanford	Colorado State

Final Four

There seems to be a consensus through week nine that some combination of Mississippi State, Florida State, Alabama, Auburn and Oregon should make up the top four.  This will change significantly over the next few weeks however, as Miss. St, Alabama and Auburn all play each other.  Florida State and Oregon both get big tests this weekend (FSU @ Louisville and Oregon plays Stanford).  If I had to guess at which conferences would be represented, here’s my thought.

No. 1- SEC 1

No. 2- Undefeated ACC Champ

No. 3- 1-loss Pac-12 Champ

No. 4- 1-loss Big 12 Champ

No. 4b- SEC 2

No. 6- 1-loss B1G Champ  

Overrated

Arizona

I realize this is a one-loss team and they’re only ranked 14 and 15, respectively, in the polls but I have a hard time taking this team seriously as a Pac-12 threat.  They beat Oregon and despite injury, I’m not going to take that away from them but a being on the wrong side of a hail-mary and this is a two loss team that’s face little in the way of competition this year.  With trips to UCLA and Utah and home games against Washington and ASU still to come, I think Arizona will show their true colors (drop) or surprise me and contend for the South.

Ohio State

The loss to VaTech was bad when it happened in week two and each week and subsequent Hokie loss, it looks even worse.  But, the Buckeyes did start to generate some excitement over the last month.  In their four games between Virginia Tech and Penn State they outscored their opponents by an average of 56-17.  Those number look impressive and they are but looking at their performance against top level defenses- VaTech and Penn State and the Buckeyes look a little less impressive.  In Urban Meyer’s two seasons in Columbus, the Buckeyes have a history of dominating lesser opponents and then folding against top competition.  I’ll buy in on OSU if they can travel to East Lansing and get a win at Michigan State.

UCLA

The fact that this UCLA team is ranked is a little unbelievable to me.  All they’ve done this season (except for a fluke against ASU) is disappoint.  They are 6-2 but are coming off an overtime win at Colorado (they needed OVERTIME to beat COLORADO) and their remaining four games are against Arizona, at Washington and home against USC and Stanford.  That 6-2 could quickly turn into 7-5 or 6-6.

Underrated

Clemson

I really like this Clemson team and they’ve been able to hold it together the past few weeks, despite the loss of starting quarterback, Deshaun Watson.  I’m not sure if I’d take them over the two-loss teams ranked ahead of them (No. 16 LSU, No. 19 OU, No. 20 WVU) without their star quarterback, but when Watson returns, look out.  This team has a high ceiling.

Arizona State

ASU has overcome a lot this season to get where they’re at.  The Sun Devils lost nine defensive starters from last year’s team and starting quarterback, Taylor Kelly went down in week three at Colorado.  After a fluky loss to UCLA, ASU has won on the road at USC and Washington and beaten Stanford.  With the return of Kelly and the continued improvement on defense, ASU is a real threat in the South and could have an impact on the Playoff picture.

Georgia

I really like this Georgia team and they seem to be hitting their stride.  Freshman, Nick Chubb has carried the load for the offense while the Todd Gurley situation sorts itself out and defensively, they seem to be getting more and more comfortable in Jeremy Pruitt’s system.  I’m not worried about the 32 they gave up to Arkansas as they were up 38-6 at halftime- the game was out of reach.  

Bubble Watch

I wanted to take the bubble watch in a little different direction this week and look at teams on the playoff bubble instead of the top 25 bubble.

Mississippi State/ Alabama/ Auburn/ Ole Miss/ Georgia

This is going to get interesting and I’ve got each of these teams on the bubble because they all play each other (if Georgia wins the East).  Below is the remaining SEC schedule for each team

MSU- Ark, @Bama, Vandy, @Ole Miss

Alabama- @LSU, MSU, Aub

Auburn- S. Carolina, @Ole Miss, TAMU, @UGA, @Bama

Ole Miss- Aub, @Ark, MSU

Georgia- UF, @Ken, Aub

As you can see, the SEC is going to get crazy over the next few weeks.  Auburn probably has the toughest path as they already have a loss to Mississippi State and go on the road to Ole Miss, Georgia and Alabama.  Miss State’s will get major tests on the road at Alabama and in the Egg Bowl against the Rebels. 

Get to know your SEC tie-breakers because a month from now, we’re going to need ‘em!

Oregon

I think if the playoff started today, it would be hard to keep Oregon out.  Given the injuries they’d sustained along the offensive line, you can look past the loss to Arizona.  The Ducks have solid wins over Michigan State, UCLA and Washington and they seem to be getting healthy at the right time.  With the loss to Arizona, Oregon has no wiggle room and will have to be sharp and, I think, dominant against their remaining opponents.  Their next two games (Stanford and at Utah) will likely determine if the Ducks are a playoff team or not.

Notre Dame

Right now the Irish are sitting at No. 6 in the AP and No. 7 in the Coaches Poll.  At 6-1, Notre Dame is in a one-week season every week.  If the playoff started today, they’d certainly just miss the cut but they have a chance to work their way into the mix if they can gather road wins at ASU and USC and take care of business against Northwestern and Louisville. 

Michigan State

Michigan State’s playoff hope come down to their November 8 matchup against Ohio State.  If they beat the Buckeye’s and then win out against Maryland, Rutgers, Penn State and go on to win beat the B1G West champ, the Spartans will be hard to overlook.