Friday, November 9, 2012

4th Down: Week 11 Picks

#1 Alabama (9-0) vs. #15 Texas A&M (7-2), 3:30pm ET, CBS
Another great matchup, brought to us by the SEC.  Alabama is going to have to get over their win over LSU in a hurry.  They're about to welcome in an A&M team that can score points in bunches and has one of the most dynamic playmakers in the country in quarterback Johnny Manziel.  Manziel has 31 total touchdowns on the season and is averaging over 380 total yards per game.  That said, it's been a different story against the other top SEC opponents Florida and LSU where Manziel has had his share of struggles.  Expect a close one, but the 'Tide get it done.
-Jeremy- Alabama, 34-28
-Nick-'Bama, 24-20

#2 Kansas State (9-0) @ TCU (6-3), 7pm ET, FOX
I think this game comes down to one factor, does Collin Kline play or not. If Kline plays and performs at a high level like he has all season this could be a blowout. I noticed Jeremy put K-State in his upset alert and I think that is a smart call. Amon G. Carter is a tough place to play, especially since head coach Gary Patterson is 58-9 in his career at home. That being said, the Wildcats are averaging 44 points and allowing just 18 per game, and with a TCU team that has been so up and down on offense this season I do not think the Frogs will be able to move the ball well enough to win. I think that Kansas State should be able to handle this one on the road and keep its No. 2 spot in the BCS. If this team stays unbeaten I think it meets 'Bama in the title game.
-Nick-K-State, 38-21
-Jeremy- K-State, 35-31

#3 Oregon (9-0) @ Cal (3-7), 10:30pm ET, ESPN/WatchESPN
This one doesn't look good for Cal.  They might be without starting quarterback Zach Maynard and Oregon is coming off a record setting performance against USC last week.  The Cal's defense is ranked 64th in points allowed and 69th in rushing yards allowed which could be trouble with a Ducks offense that's putting up 341 rushing yards per game..  The Ducks should have no trouble running away with this one... get it?  Running?  Anyway, Quack-attack gets it done.
-Jeremy- Oregon, 52-21
-Nick-Oregon, 63-24

#4 Notre Dame (9-0) @ Boston College (2-7), 8pm ET, ABC
The Irish are looking for a rebound game and this is a great matchup to get back on track. The Eagles are 122nd in the country in rushing yards and against an outstanding Irish defense I do not see how they can move the ball. The Irish should be able to run away with this game.
-Nick-Irish, 31-10
-Jeremy- Notre Dame, 34-6

#5 Georgia (8-1) @ Auburn (2-7), 7pm ET, ESPN2/WatchESPN
The good news for Auburn is that Georgia has struggled a bit on the road this season.  The bad news for Auburn.  Well, they're Auburn.  With a birth in the SEC Championship on the line, expect Georgia to put this game away early.
-Jeremy- Georgia, 38-17
-Nick-Georiga, 31-10

#6 Florida vs. LA-Lafayette, 12:21pm ET, SEC Network/ESPN3
Interesting to see a team step out of conference play the final two weeks of the season, but Florida is finished with SEC play and will host Lafayette and then travel to Florida State for its final two games. Not really going to spend any time on this the Gators should have an easy time with the Ragin' Cajuns.
-Nick-Florida, 41-17
-Jeremy- Florida, 30-13

#7 LSU vs. #21 Miss. St., 7pm ET, ESPN/WatchESPN
This night game in Death Valley will turn out differently than last weekend's night game in Death Valley.  LSU played, arguably it's best game of the season and found a quarterback in Zach Mettenberger.  Mississippi State has lost two in a row and a road game at LSU is not the place to get back on track.
-Jeremy- LSU, 24-10
-Nick- LSU 31-17

#8 South Carolina vs. Arkansas, 12pm ET, CBS
At the beginning of the season this game was built to have some major SEC implications now it is just another game for the Gamecocks to roll through in the SEC. Connar Shaw should be able to have his way in this game and pick apart a poor Arkansas defense. South Carolina is still in line for a possible BCS at-large berth and needs to keep making some statement wins.
-Nick-South Carolina, 45-10
-Jeremy- South Carolina, 37-21

#9 Louisville @ Syracuse, 12pm ET, ABC/ESPN3
Louisville has been living on the edge for much of the season, but are coming off one of their most decisive wins of the season last week.  Syracuse has been handled by the top teams on their schedule and it will be more of the same this week.
-Jeremy- Louisville, 31-20
-Nick-Louisville, 31-13

#10 Florida State- 26, Virginia Tech- 22, Thursday
The Seminoles take a good shot from the Hokies and survive a tough November road game.

#11 Oregon State @ #14 Stanford, 3pm ET, FOX
The winner of this matchup will have an opportunity to play for the Pac-12 North title against Oregon later this month.  Both teams play solid defense and both have had their own quarterback issues.  The Cardinal offense got a jump-start last week with freshman quarterback Kevin Hogan, but he'll have his hands full against this Beaver defense.  The matchup I'm looking at though, Oregon States passing attack that's averaging 306 per game against a Stanford pass defense that's ranked 104th in the nation.  OSU pulls out a close one on the road.  Bring on the Ducks!
-Jeremy- Oregon State, 28-24

I have to disagree on this one. Stanford's defense will play an inspired game and hold that OSU passing attack down. This is going to be a defensive battle, but like Jeremy said it comes down to quarterback play. I know it was against Colorado last week but I like the way Hogan stepped in and made big plays in that game. I like Stanford to win a close one here and gain some momentum before heading to Eugene next weekend for a major showdown with the Ducks.
-Nick-Stanford, 20-17

#12 Oklahoma vs. Baylor, 3:30pm ET
Oklahoma is looking for revenge after RGIII and the Bears beat the Sooners for the first time in school history last season. I think the Oklahoma should have a pretty easy time with this because Baylor has one of the worst defenses in the country. The only wrinkle here could be Baylor can score like crazy and if this game gets to be a shootout it could be interesting. Still the Sooners won't let the Bears score a ton of points since OU has the 17th best scoring defense in the country. Oklahoma should roll in this game at Norman.
-Nick-Oklahoma, 42-21
-Jeremy- Oklahoma, 45-28

#13 Clemson vs. Maryland, 3:30pm ET, ESPNU/WatchESPN
Maryland has a solid defense, but there's not way they can stay in this one.  At home the Tigers will run the Terps and their backup linebacker/new starting quarterback out of town.
-Jeremy- Clemson, 44-21
-Nick-Clemson, 38-14

#16 Nebraska vs. Penn State, 3:30pm ET, ABC/ESPN2
In third down I put Nebraska on upset alert because I am not sure if another coach in the country has done a better job pulling his team through adversity like Bill O'Brien has. Penn State has been playing excellent defense as of late allowing just 17 points per game which is 14th in the country. See our third down for a little more on this but I still say it comes down to quarterback play and Matt McGloin is a much better quarterback than Taylor Martinez. Penn State goes to Lincoln and pulls off a shocker.
-Nick-Penn State, 31-30
-Jeremy- Nebraska, 24-23

#17 Texas (7-2) vs. Iowa State (5-4), 12pm ET, Longhorn Network
Texas has won three straight and will be glad to back in Austin after back to back road games.  Iowa State will give the Longhorns a game but I don't think they've got what it takes to pull out a win.
-Jeremy- Texas, 31-24   
-Nick-Texas, 38-24


#18 UCLA @ Washington State, 10:30pm ET, ESPN2/WatchESPN
What a horrible debut season it has been for Mike Leach in Pullman. On the other side Jim Mora and his Bruins have a chance to win the Pac-12 South. UCLA is coming off a huge blowout over Arizona last weekend and is looking to keep playing at a high level. They should be able to run over Washington State easily in Pullman.
-Nick-UCLA, 38-17
-Jeremy- UCLA, 44-21

#19 USC (6-3) vs. Arizona State, 3pm ET, Pac-12 Network
ASU has lost three straight and one would think a game against USC would mean a fourth straight loss.  But, USC has dropped their last two and have been pretty mediocre on the road this season.  The Trojans need to stop the tail-spin if they want to stay in the hunt in the Pac-12 South.  SC has given up 101 points and 1,318 yards the past two games.  Do they get it figured out this week?
-Jeremy- Arizona State, 37-31

I know the Pac-12 has been up and down all season but I think USC gets back on track this week. I think Marquise Lee and Matt Barkley will be able to torch the ASU defense.
-Nick-USC, 38-27

#20 Louisiana Tech @ Texas State, 7pm ET, Longhorn Network
Louisiana Tech can score with anyone and Texas State is improving but still not ready to play with the big boys yet.
-Nick-Louisiana Tech, 56-35
-Jeremy- LaTech, 54-27

#22 Texas Tech (6-3) vs. Kansas (1-8), 12pm ET
Nothing turns around a two game losing streak like a game against the Jayhawks.
-Jeremy- TTech, 41-17
-Nick-Red Raiders, 52-10

#23 Rutgers vs. Army, 12pn ET, ESPNU/WatchESPN
After Kent State ended Rutgers BCS bowl game hopes, the Scarlet Knights should be able to get back on track against an up and down Army team. Gary Nova and the sixth-best scoring defense (14.3 ppg) should be able to lead the RU past Army.
-Nick-Rutgers, 28-10
-Jeremy- Rutgers, 24-13

#24 Northwestern (7-2) @ Michigan (6-3), 12pm ET, ESPN/ESPN 3D
Northwestern can stay alive in the race for the B1G with a win over Michigan.  Michigan has been up and down this season, but they are undefeated at home in The Big House.
-Jeremy- Michigan, 30-28

I have to disagree once again. I know Michigan is undefeated at home, but I am still not sold on this Michigan team. I think even if Denard Robinson plays Northwestern should be able to get it done on the road. I like the way this team has played and has lost some close ones on the road and is ready for a breakout.
-Nick-Northwestern, 35-31

#25 Toledo- 27, Ball State- 34, Tuesday
Toledo's top 25 home was very short lived after a loss to Ball State on Tuesday. Don't count out the MAC this season though, tough conference with some good teams.

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