3rd Down-LSU-Bama, USC-Oregon, Wyo-CSU, Upset Alert

Alabama-LSU
Game of the Week/Game of The Year-
For the second-straight season this becomes the game of the year. It is not very often when you get to see two of the most dominate teams in college football battle it out year in and year out. This will be the third time in the last three meetings we have seen Alabama and LSU meet as top 10 foes. This is a series over the last two seasons that has been dominated by defense. First you get a 9-6 overtime thriller that LSU pulls out in Bryant Denny on Nov. 5th of last season. The Tigers took command of the national title race at that point and rolled to the end of the season scoring 41 in every game following that. In a very controversial National Championship choice, but the right choice (yes Oklahoma State fans this was the right choice because lets face it LSU beats you by 50 if you make the title game, and your win over Stanford was the best thing that could have happened to you), The Tide and Tigers met in the title game as the No. 1 and No. 2 teams in the BCS and the two best teams in the country. A much more prepared and focused Alabama team showed up in New Orleans on Jan. 9 and steamrolled the Tigers 21-0 and allowing just 92 yards of total offense by LSU.

This game and series is continually played on the defensive side of the ball. Both of these teams are unreal on defense ranking in the top 10 of every major defensive category this season. Starting with LSU, the Tigers are ranked No. 3 in total defense averaging 243.38 yards per game. Their rush defense is also top 10 at No. 8 averaging 94.88 yards per game. The Tigers scoring defense and turnover margin ranked No. 9 with 14.63 points per game and plus 1.13, respectively. All stats aside the Tigers key is their defensive line. The LSU line has accounted for 23 sacks and 65 tackles for loss this season. If the Tigers expect to win this game they need some serious pressure to stuff Bama's run game and put A.J. McCarron on his back all night.

On to the unstoppable Alabama defense now. This unit is ranked first in four of the five major categories and No. 2 in that fifth category (turnover margin). Very telling of how dominate this defense has been is total defense. The Tide allow just 203.13 yards of total offense pregame which is nearly 24 yards less than the No. 2 team Florida State and 40 yards less than LSU's defense. This can make a huge difference in Saturday's game. Also Bama is ranked No. 1 in scoring defense allowing just 8.13 points per game and are just one of two teams in the country allowing less than 10 per. The Tide pass and rush defense are both ranked No. 1. They are second in turnover margin at plus 2.13 per game. I think that is what will make the difference in this game.

Statistically the edge goes to Alabama, I am going to have a hard time picking against them. They are faster and more athletic than any defense in the country and have made every team they play look bad on offense. Advantage Bama.

I am going to throw some offensive stats out there because both of these teams will play great defense, but it is going to come down to which offense can make the big play. Bama's offense on paper looks like it should dominate the LSU offense because it is more balanced. The Tide average 222 yards passing (73rd in the country) and 214 yards rushing (23rd in the country) per game. Bama also averages 40 points per game which is 11th in the country. For LSU they are 25th in the country in rushing yards averaging 208 per contest and a pathetic 109th in passing yards averaging 177 per game. At 51st in points for scoring 31 per game if they can't move the ball on some bad teams they have played how are they going to move the ball on the best defense in the country. LSU could not move the ball on a fast and athletic Florida defense, and struggled with a big physical Texas A&M defensive line. On the offensive side of the ball I have to again go with the Tide. Alabama is significantly better at quarterback, McCarron is leaps and bounds better than Zach Mettenberger who is average at best. I think the quarterback position will be the difference in this game, with both defense so good against the run neither will probably be able to get going to well on the ground so it will be the big plays from the passing game that will decide this. And I will say Mettenberger cannot make the same throws McCarron can. Advantage Bama.

Let's continue on to the venue of this game. No doubt Death Valley is probably the toughest place to play in the country, especially in a night game when the No. 1 team in the country comes calling. Baton Rouge is on my bucket list to see a night game, what a crazy atmosphere and one of the best venues in the country. That being said I am not sure if that can swing the game in the Tigers favor. This will be the craziest atmosphere Bama has seen this season, but with the kind of veteran leadership it has it should be able to handle it.

Ok now that I have jabbered about stats and what not for the last 500 words I am going to get to what I actually think will happen in this game. As I have said a couple times before above, I do not think either team is going to be able to run the ball very well and this game will come down to who can make the big play in the air. This is going to be a very close match up and low scoring, but with some big turnovers and a couple big plays in the air I think Bama wins. So here it is America Roll damn Tide, 17-10.
-Nick

Oregon-USC (The overhype bowl)
That might be a little harsh brosef.  I agree that 'Bama-LSU is the best game of the week but this could be a big one and Oregon is going to face its toughest test of the year.  The Ducks haven't played a team with the kind of speed and athleticism that USC will bring and let's not forget that USC beat Oregon at Oregon last season.  The Trojans have played well at home this season and I fully expect them to rebound from an inexplicable loss last week to Arizona and give the Ducks all they can handle.

I think USC will jump out early with Marquise Lee and Robert Woods and test the Oregon secondary, but in the end Oregon will wear out the Trojan's defense and expose their lack of depth.  Oregon pulls away late and gets the win.
Oregon, 44-31

Wyoming-Colorado State (Border War)
I am sure 90 percent of you could care less about this game, but this is a big one where we are from so you are going to get a little west of the Mississippi rivalry knowledge. This is the oldest standing rivalry west of the Mississippi river playing for the 104th time this Saturday. Neither team is very good this season, but records never really matter in this rivalry. Wyoming was 7-4 going into the last game and CSU was 3-8. The Cowboys started with a bang but the Rams battled and had a chance to win on the last drive, before a Wyoming safety sealed the game 22-19 for the Pokes. Colorado State will be looking to stop a three-game Wyoming winning streak in Border War's, but don't expect that to happen this weekend. Talent wise the Cowboys are the better team, but they have regressed a lot the last couple games and don't look like the same team that was so highly tauted at the beginning of the season. This game is a tossup this season but the Pokes win a close one 35-28.
-Jeremy

Nick's Upset Alert:
This week I am putting Clemson on upset alert. They travel to Durham to take on a very improved and hungry Duke team. The Blue Devils are trying to live up to early expectations after looking bad against Florida State last weekend. Clemson does not have the same level of defense that Florida State has and Duke is a team that can move the football if its get rolling. I cannot believe I find myself picking the Blue Devils to upset a top-15 school, but I think this is the weekend the Devils make some noise. They are coming off a disappointing showing and are looking to have a major rebound.
-Nick

I saw this in your week 10 picks and while this could set up as 'that' game that Clemson inexplicably looses every season, I just can see it.  I had a chance to watch FSU-Duke in-person last week and witnessed a fast, athletic Seminoles team run right by the Duke secondary time and time again.  Duke just doesn't have the speed on the back end to keep up with Sammy Watkins and 'Nuke' Hopkins, who could both end up with career games against the Blue Devils.

I think Duke can keep it close with a solid offense that will move the ball and score points against a pretty porous Clemson defense.  I think Clemson will get a challenge early and I expect Duke to hang tight for their first half to three quarters, but Clemson will run away late. 
-Jeremy

Jeremy's Upset Alert:
I think Alabama-LSU or Oregon-USC are too easy to call as upset alert and really, I don't see either Alabama, or Oregon slipping up this weekend.  When I look at the schedule of games I see two games that jump out at me for upset alert- K-State vs. Oklahoma State (I know, I'm glutton for punishment with this K-State thing) and OSU-ASU. 

That said, I'm putting Georgia on upset alert.  This team has been really up and down this season and I'm really curious to see how they respond after a huge win last week over then #2 Florida.  The Bulldogs were going into the Florida game after a huge loss to S. Carolina and an ugly win over SEC whipping boy, in Kentucky.  At times, Georgia as looked absolutely dominant, but they've had a hard time dialing in when they need to.  Ole Miss is playing good football under Hugh Freeze and hung in pretty well against Texas, Alabama and Texas A&M.  If the Bulldogs aren't keyed in and let the Rebels hang around, don't be surprised if they let this one get away.
-Jeremy