Friday, October 26, 2012

Week 9 Picks, Upset Alert, Game of the Week, Most to gain and most to lose

#1 Alabama vs. #11 Miss. St., 8:30pm ET
This is an interesting game for both teams and is both teams first true test. This will play out a lot better for the 'Tide because it will be a great test before a major road trip to Death Valley next week. The Tide better not over look this game because Miss. State is a sneaky team and could give them some fits. I am not sold on the Bulldogs yet because they have literally played no one. I give the nod to 'Bama in this game because it has one of the best defenses in the country and no matter who has been across the line this season it has made them look bad. Alabama has the No. 1 scoring defense in the country allowing just 8.3 points per outing. Miss. State has a solid defense as well, but I do not see how it can slow down a 'Bama rushing attack that averages nearly 220 yards per contest. Tide gets a top-15 victory and builds some serious momentum going into the major showdown next week in Baton Rouge. This game will be closer than most 'Bama has played, but it will pull away late.
-Nick-Roll Tide, 34-20

I'm with Nick here.  This will be a tough game for the 'Tide but they're simply better than Miss. St. and will get the win. 
-Jeremy- 'Bama- 31-17

#2 Florida vs. #10 Georgia, 3:30pm ET, Jacksonville
See my thoughts below on the implications of this game- just the SEC East, no big deal.  These teams are coming into this game from two different directions.  Florida has been rolling lately with wins over LSU and S. Carolina in the last three weeks.  Offensively, they're very one dimensional, resting almost entirely on their running game which is going for over 212 ypg.  The story of the Gators, however, is their defense which is ranked fourth in the nation in scoring defense.  I think this running game and defense will be the difference in the game and gives Florida the edge.  Georgia's run defense is 72nd in the nation is seems to be in total disarray coming off their loss to S. Carolina and uninspiring win over Kentucky last week.  The Gator's will lean on the ground game and defense to get a hard fought win over a Georgia team that is playing for their season. 
Jeremy- Florida- 28-23

I am going to have to agree with Jeremy. Florida is playing as well as anyone in the country right now and looks like a title contender. I just think that defense will be too much for the Bulldogs.
Nick-Florida, 24-21


#3 Kansas State vs. #14 Texas Tech, 3:30pm ET
Another tough test for Collin Kline and the Wildcats, but this team just keeps rolling on. They beat Oklahoma and West Virginia on the road and now return home for a tough Texas Tech squad. This game will be a quarterback duel. With the way Heisman frontrunner Kline is playing right now it is tough to bet against KSU. Kline is completing 70 percent of his passes for nearly 1,400 yards and 10 touchdowns. What is more impressive is he has rushed for 551 yards and 14 touchdowns. This K-State team can run the ball with two other running backs who have 500-plus yards on the season, helping this squad to the 14th-best rushing attack in the country averaging 233 yards per game. I think you can see which way I am leaning in this game, but I must get a couple sentences in about the Red Raiders. Quarterback Seth Dodge has 2200 yards this season and 28 touchdowns and is leading the fourth-ranked passing offense in the country. Tech also scores the 10th most points in the country with nearly 43 per game. This defense which was No. 1 in the country earlier this season has taken a step back over the last couple weeks and is capable of allowing some big numbers. I think K-State and Kline can expose that and come out of this one with a win.
-Nick-Kansas State, 42-31

I know I'm going to regret this but I'm going the other way here.  I like Tech to come in and steal one from the Wildcats.
Jeremy- Texas Tech- 31-30

#4 Oregon vs. Colorado, 3pm ET
I'm not really sure this game even deserves an explanation.  Coming off a their 50-6 loss to USC, Colorado is arguably the worst team in college football.  Oregon should be able to eclipse their season average of 51 ppg in the first half and cruise to an easy victory. 
Jeremy- Oregon 61-10

How can I not agree here? An offense that can score with anyone and a defense that cannot stop anyone. Should be a rough day for the Buffs.
Nick-Oregon, 56-17

#5 Notre Dame @ #8 Oklahoma, 8pm ET
You can see my thoughts below on this game in the upset alert section so I am not going to spend much time on it. With this game in Norman, I think Oklahoma has the edge. The Sooners are rising and have played well over the last couple weeks. I think this is the week that Notre Dame's lack of a solid offense really gets the better of them. I really like Notre Dame's defense but this is the first really high powered offense it has faced this season. Now I may be wrong here but I think this game gets a little higher scoring than most think and the Irish cannot keep up with the Sooners. Sooners win a close one.
-Nick-Oklahoma, 38-31

I'm really torn here and everything in me says to go with the Sooners.  But, I think the ND defense will keep Jones and Co. in check and the offense does just enough to pull the upset in Norman.
-Jeremy- Notre Dame, 23-20

#7 Oregon St. @ Washington, 10:15pm ET
The only thing in this game that makes me think the Huskies have a chance is that they've played pretty well at home.  That said, they're playing an Oregon State team that's off to its best start in over 100 years and always give the Huskies a hard time.  The Huskies have lost three straight and are playing their fourth game in five weeks against a ranked opponent.  The offense is struggling and is ranked 103rd in total offense in the nation.  I don't see them getting on track this week against the Beavers who look to get starting quarterback Sean Mannion back.  Oregon State will go to Seattle and take care of a pesky Husky team that will be trying to keep its bowl hopes alive. 
Jeremy- Oregon State, 31-24

I think with Mannion back a quarterback the Beavers should be able to handle this game pretty well. Washington is an improving team but it is not quite there yet.
Nick-Oregon State, 37-24


#9 USC @ Arizona, 3:30pm ET
This game is not very hard to call. At the beginning of the season everyone was giving Airzona a chance at the Pac-12 title, but after it lost three consecutive games to ranked teams including a 49-0 drubbing by Oregon, the Cats look like just another over hyped Pac-12 school. Thing about that is they are playing the most over hyped Pac-12 school in history. Don't get me wrong USC is a pretty good team and sure Barkley is a pretty solid quarterback, but it is pretty easy for Barkley when he has some of the best weapons in the country around him. That being said Barkley has looked pretty mediocre for being the Heisman favorite to start the season. He has thrown for 22 touchdowns which is nothing to sneeze at, but when you have a receiver like Marqise Lee catching balls it is pretty easy. There is no doubt that Arizona can sling the ball around with the No. 4 ranked passing game in the country, but that has not helped when it plays good teams so far and I don't think it will again this week. USC should win this in a high scoring game.
-Nick-USC, 45-42

After going back and forth on this one, I'm going to go for the upset here.  USC hasn't played well on the road this season, while Arizona has played well at home- aside from their 3-point loss to Oregon State.  Arizona wins a shootout and shocks 'the most over hyped Pac-12 school in history.'
-Jeremy- Arizona, 51-48

#12 Florida State vs. Duke, 3:30pm ET
Duke comes into this game fresh off their six win, becoming bowl eligible for the first time since 1995.  Congrats Dukies.  Now that that's out of the way, they're about to run into a buzz saw that is Florida State at home.  The Seminoles have been dominant at Doak Campbell out scoring their opponents 152-44 (that's not counting their 69-3 and 55-0 wins over FCS opponents, Murry St. and Savannah St.).  Duke has been throwing the ball well going for 289per.  The Seminoles have arguably the best d-line in the nation and look for bookends, Bjoern Werner and "Tank" Carradine have a combined 16 sacks and 20.5 tackles for loss.  Offensively, look for EJ Manuel to rip off big chunks early and often against the Blue Devils 66th ranked defense.  FSU wins going away.
Jeremy- Florida State, 41-13

Agree here I know Duke is one of the better teams in the ACC this season, but FSU needs to continue to make statements to be considered one of the best teams in the country. This game will be a little closer than expected.
Nick-FSU, 38-24

#13 South Carolina vs. Tennessee, 12pm ET
This games looks much more interesting now with South Carolina coming off back-to-back road losses, including a 44-11 blow-out loss to the Gators last week.  Tennessee is also reeling and facing their fifth ranked opponent in six weeks.  The Gamecocks have played well at home this season outscoring opponents 163-33 and they'll need their homefield advantage to be a factor with a Tennessee team coming in desperate to end their three game skid.  To me, the determining factor in this game will be the health and impact of SC running back Marcus Lattimore.  The Gamecocks are a different team without him and I think Tennessee wins this game if he's not a factor.  I'm going with SC, but I think this one is close. 
Jeremy- S. Carolina, 34-31

I like the call here, Tennessee is another improving team but South Carolina is trying to get back on track and should be able to handle this game pretty easily.
Nick-South Carolina, 38-27

#15 Rutgers vs. Kent St., 3:30pm ET
I think the lack of out of conference strength of schedule in the Big Least is pretty laughable this season. What's better is when those bad teams beat what was a ranked team, including a MAC team. That doesn't happen this week though. Rutgers quarterback Gary Nova is one of the best youngsters in the country and should find a way to pull his Scarlet Knights through this game. Nova gave Rutgers a much needed spark last weekend and helped the Scarlet Knights run away against Temple. The combo of Nova and the defense (No. 3 scoring 11.3 points per game) have carried Rutgers thus far and is see nothing different this week. Kent State is a tough team scoring nearly 34 per game and coming in 6-1. They have not beat any big teams but when you can run the ball (210 yards per game) you can be a nightmare for anyone. I think Nova wills Rutgers to a victory in this one but it will be close enough to make them sweat.
Jeremy- Rutgers- 24-20
Nick-Rutgers, 35-31


#16 Louisville vs. Cincinnati, Friday 8pm ET
I've been flipping back and forth in this one.  Louisville, though undefeated hasn't been overly impressive this season.  Quarterback, Teddy Bridgewater has played well, protecting the football, but I feel like they're living on borrowed time.  Cincinnati is probably the best team Louisville has played this season and I think the Bearcats can go in with their 225.7 rushing yards per game and dominate time of possession and take the crowd out of the game.  Mistakes lost the game for Cincinnati last week and if they clean them up, I think they can sneak out of here with a win. 
-Jeremy- Cincinnati, 30-28
-Nick-Louisville, 31-27

#17 Stanford vs. Washington St., 6:15pm ET
Stanford is coming off a pretty easy win at Cal and this game shouldn't be much different. The Cardinal plays very physical defense which is bad for this weak Washington State offense. Stanford does not wow you on the stat sheet but with a running back like Stepfan Taylor who has 846 yards and six touchdowns so far it does not need to. If you can run the ball well and play physical defense all these spread offenses (like Mike Leach's) are in trouble. The spread relays on quick moves and big plays just what Stanford does not give up. Stanford should control this game from beginning to end.
Nick-Stanford, 31-17

Couldn't agree more.  Wazzou is reeling and won't get back on track against a well-coached, physical Cardinal team.
Jeremy- Stanford, 28-14

#18 Clemson @ Wake Forest, Thursday 7:30pm ET
Jeremy- Clemson
Nick-Clemson

#20 Texas A&M @ Auburn, 7pm ET
Auburn has looked woefully bad this season and around they are already calling for Gene's job just two years removed from a national championship. A&M is a rising team and with Johhny Football catching snaps this team should roll on the plains of Alabama. The Aggies are coming off a tough loss to LSU when it looked like they had the game in control before the Tiger defense put the clamps down. Manziel makes this team go with over 2,600 yards (1,956 passing and 703 rushing) of total offense this season including 16 total touchdowns. I fully expect him to go off this game after being shutdown in the second half last week. Auburn is ranked 100-plus in both offensive categories and 121st in points scored. I see no way this team can move the ball on a much improved Texas A&M defense. Look out for this one to get ugly for the Tigers.
 -Nick-Texas A&M, 42-17

It would be great for the Tigers to get a win and stop the downward spiral, but not against this A&M team that will be too much for this bad Auburn defense.
-Jeremy- Texas A&M, 38-21

#21 Boise State @ Wyoming, 3:30pm ET
My heart will always be with the Pokes, but they have no chance in this game.  Boise isn't the Boise of the past few years but they're very well coached, they have a solid defense and the offense has played much better the past four weeks, averaging just over 30ppg.  The Cowboys are in complete disarray and will be without head coach Dave Christiansen after being suspended for his post-game outburst against Air Force.  Not helping things is Wyoming's defense which is giving up 33.9ppg and over 450 yards under new DC Chris Tormey.  Look for the Cowboys to rally and play well out of the gate, but don't expect them to hold on for the win. 
-Jeremy- Boise St., 33-24

I will be at this game live watching, and I have the liberty of watching these Cowboys every week. This has been a disappointing year so far for Wyoming, but I think it will keep this game close at home. The Pokes should play inspired football with out HC Christiansen, but will come up heartbreakingly short.
-Nick-Boise State, 31-28

#22 Michigan @ Nebraska, 8pm ET
I have gone back and forth on this game because I cannot decide which Denard Robinson or Taylor Martinez will show up. For the record I do not like either one of them a quarterback.  Robinson forces way to many passes, throwing way too many interceptions and Martinez (who was supposed to be a much improved passer) if pressured returns to the same ole' Taylor who also throws too many picks and cannot hit the broad side of a barn if he tries. Now I give the quarterback matchup to Robinson for the mear fact that he is all Michigan has on offense with 2,100 yards of total offense and 15 touchdowns. That being said I am still going with the Huskers in this game because of the two-headed monster that is Amear Abdullah and Rex Burkehead who have rushed for a combined 1,020 yards and 10 touchdowns. Abdullah is averaging nearly six yards per carry while Burkhead is going off averaging 8.6 per touch. The Blackshirt defense (or what is left of it) will force some big turnovers from the very turnover prone Robinson and that will be the deciding factor in this game.
-Nick-Nebraska, 35-24

It's tough to go against Nebraska at home but I'm taking Michigan here.  I agree that neither team is a real threat in the passing game, so I look to the team the plays better run defense.  Michigan is 49th, Nebraska is 90th.  Go Blue.
-Jeremy- Michigan, 38-35

#23 Texas @ Kansas, 12pm ET
Nothing builds your confidence going into a tough match up like whipping up on Kansas.  The only chance the Jayhawks have of even keeping this one close is the hope that Texas is looking ahead to next weeks game against Texas Tech.  KU has lost six straight and won't get back on the 'W' side this weekend.  Surprisingly, Texas is giving up more points per game this season than Kansas, but the Longhorns have the 6th best scoring offense in the country, averaging 44.4 to KU's 17.3.  That's 17.3ppg.  The last two ranked teams to play KU (K-St. and Oklahoma) have put up 50+ and Texas will do the same.
-Jeremy- Texas, 51-24
-Nick-Texas, 48-20

#24 Ohio @ Miami (OH), 3:30 pm ET
I have been saying for the last couple weeks how much I like this Ohio team. This is a team that in week one beat a Penn State team that is getting on a roll now and looks like a solid squad. What I really like about this team is it has played a lot of close games and found ways to win all of them. The Bobcats have won five games by 10 points or less. I am sure some would say that is a team that is on the verge of losing, but good teams find a way to win close games and this team seems to have that down. The good thing for Ohio is Miami is not a very good team with just a 3-4 record and ranking in the bottom third in almost every major statistical category. The Bobcats should win this game pretty easily.
-Nick-Ohio, 35-10.

I like Ohio here too.  They don't win pretty but they do keep winning.
-Jeremy- Ohio, 31-27

#25 Wisconsin vs. Michigan St., 3:30pm ET
These teams are going in two different directions.  Wisconsin seems to have fixed some of the issues they were facing early in the season and have won three straight by an average of 22 points and has not given up more than 14 points in those three games.  Michigan State has dropped three of their last four and though they have a top ranked defense, they're getting absolutely no help from a putrid offense.  Le'Veon Bell has been good for the Spartans, but will be facing an eight-man box all day against Wisconsin.  Look for the Badgers to pull away late, in what looks to be a physical game. 
-Jeremy- Wisconsin, 24-16

I went back and fourth on this game, but I have to disagree with Jeremy here. I think Bell should finally get some running room in this game and score a couple touchdowns. This should be low scoring, but I think the Spartans hold on against and emerging Badger team.
-Nick-Michigan State, 20-17

*Ohio St. @ Penn St., 5:30pm ET (*Ohio State and Penn State are ineligible for the post-season and cannot be ranked in the BCS or Coaches Poll)
Ohio State has been living on the edge lately and the health of quarterback Braxton Miller will go a long way in determining the winner of this game.  Ohio State isn't a threat in the passing game and it will be on Penn States 21st ranked run defense to corral Miller and the OSU running game that's going for nearly 250 yards per game.  The Buckeye's have struggled on the road this season and going into Happy Valley is a tall task, especially with the Penn State offense averaging 34 points per game in their five wins this season.  The Buckeye's luck runs out and Penn State gets win number six.
-Jeremy- Penn State, 34-30
-Nick-Penn State, 21-17


Upset Alert:
Looking this week at someone to put on upset alert is tough.  None of the lower ranked teams play any one that is really going to knock them off, so I have to go to the top 10. I am putting Notre Dame on upset alert this week. Sure it is two top-10 teams battling, but a trip to Norman is where the Irish and their national title hopes end. Notre Dame have beat some tough teams this season, but this team still has no offense. No denying the Irish have one of the best defenses in the country and arguably the best player in the country in Manti T'eo, but that can only get them so far. This Sooner team is finally hitting its stride after looking pretty ugly to start the season. I am calling Oklahoma in this game because I looked at its last match up against a very stout defense in Texas Tech, who was the No. 1 defense in the country at that time. The Sooners put up 41 points on the Red Raiders and looked like an unstoppable offense. That game was even in Lubbock.
-Nick

I like you're call here with Notre Dame.  Getting past Oklahoma on the road seems like a tall task for this Irish team.  How many more times can that defense rise to the occasion? 

I'm also going to put K-State on upset alert.  Tommy Tubberville has a knack for knocking off top five teams and this Red Raider teams seems up to the task.  If Tech can load the box and for Colin Klein to throw the ball, they've got a fighting chance.  If not, look for Texas Tech to try to make this a shoot out. 
-Jeremy

Game of the Week:
How can you not go with Notre Dame @ Oklahoma?  The Irish have beaten some quality teams already this season but probably no one who's more well rounded or playing better football at the moment that the Sooners.  This game has national title implications for both teams.  Oklahoma will need some help to get in but if Notre Dame is able to run the table, there's no way they'll be left out.
-Nick

I disagree here, brosef.  While this is a great game, I've got to go with UF-UGA here.  Even if they win out, I doubt that Oklahoma makes the title game.  The winner of the SEC will play in the BCS Championship and the winner of this game will represent the East in the SEC title game.  Can they beat Alabama or LSU?  We'll see but, they'll be in better position than either Notre Dame or Oklahoma with a win in this game. 
-Jeremy

Team with the most to gain:
Looking at the top 25, the team I see with the most to gain is the Georgia Bulldogs. After Florida, they've got a very managable schedule and a win against the Gators puts them in the drivers seat in the SEC East.  The win would put Georgia and Florida at one loss apiece with the Bulldogs holding the head-to-head tie-breaker and also keep them a game ahead of S. Carolina who has two conference losses. 

The Bulldogs remaining schedule shapes up with Ole Miss, @ Auburn, Georgia Southern and Georgia Tech, with only Ole Miss and Auburn remaining in SEC play, both very winnable games. 

Florida's remaining schedule is also managable with Missouri, UL Lafayette and Jacksonville State all at home, until their Nov. 24th trip up the road to Tallahassee to play Florida State in a game that could have national title implications. 

Team with the most to lose:
The team with the most to lose this weekend is the No. 2 Florida Gators. Jeremy called them with the most to gain, but this is a two-way street because they can really put themselves in the national title hunt, but can also fall out of it very quickly. A victory this weekend locks up the SEC East race for them, but a loss makes a true log jam at the top of the East. If Florida loses to Georgia then Georgia not Florida controls its own road to the SEC title game. Looking at the remaining schedules for both teams they are both pretty manageable, but the road is a little easier for the Bulldogs (see Jeremy's schedule breakdowns of these teams above).

I feel like the Florida pick was pretty easy to call as a team with the most to lose so I am going to pick another team to add in this. I was trying to pick someone outside of the top 10, but there are too many teams in the top 10 with a lot to lose. My second thought in this segment is going to be about Kansas State. After talking with Jeremy, the Kansas State-Texas Tech match up is huge in the Big 12 race. With a win K-State puts itself in full control of the Big 12 race, but with a loss (like in the SEC East) it becomes a headache trying to figure out this conference. If the Wildcats lose this weekend that puts Tech and OU tied for the league lead with only one loss. A win would give Tech the tiebreaker over K-State, but OU still holds the tiebreak over Tech so if K-State loses this Big 12 race would get really interesting. Neither KSU or TTU have tough roads left, with only one ranked team in Texas on both of their schedules the winner of this game could very well run the table and win the Big 12. I have to give the nod to K-State but this will be a close hard fought game.



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