Top 25- Week 15

RK	CFB Playoff Poll	AP Poll	Jeremy	Nick
1	Alabama	Alabama	Florida State	Alabama
2	Oregon	Florida State	Alabama	Florida State
3	TCU	Oregon	Oregon	Oregon
4	Florida State	TCU	Baylor	Baylor
5	Ohio State	Baylor	TCU	TCU
6	Baylor	Ohio State	Ohio State	Ohio State
7	Arizona	Michigan State	Kansas State	Kansas State
8	Michigan State	Arizona	Arizona	Michigan State
9	Kansas State	Kansas State	Wisconsin	Arizona
10	Mississippi State	Mississippi State	Mississippi State	Mississippi State
11	Georgia Tech	Wisconsin	Michigan State	Wisconsin
12	Ole Miss	Georgia Tech	Georgia Tech	Missouri
13	Wisconsin	Ole Miss	Missouri	Georgia Tech
14	Georgia	Missouri	Ole Miss	Ole Miss
15	UCLA	Georgia	Georgia	Georgia
16	Missouri	UCLA	UCLA	Arizona State
17	Arizona State	Arizona State	Arizona State	Clemson
18	Clemson	Oklahoma	Clemson	UCLA
19	Auburn	Clemson	Oklahoma	Oklahoma
20	Oklahoma	Auburn	Auburn	Auburn
21	Louisville	Louisville	Louisville	Boise State
22	Boise State	Boise State	Boise State	LSU
23	Utah	LSU	Nebraska	Utah
24	LSU	Utah	LSU	USC
25	USC	Nebraska	USC	Louisville

 

 

The Rankings

Deep down, I think we all knew a committee of 13 people (12 currently) would have their hands full trying to sort out a sport that computers, mathematicians, writers and coaches haven’t been able to settle for over 100 years.  Each time the committee comes out with new rankings I’m torn between my personal fan bias and the general college football fan in me.  The team fan screams at Jeff Long and curses the committee loud enough that the dog has to leave the room.  The general college football fan absolutely loves the new format and all the storylines, drama and upheaval. 

 

After the latest rankings, I find myself a bit concerned about the direction and the president the committee is setting.  Most importantly, it seems winning, the only concrete way to compare teams is being devalued.  You can argue against Florida State until you’re blue in the face but the ironclad fact remains- they’re the ONLY undefeated team from a Power 5 conference, period.  Plus, the biggest argument against them, the fact that they’ve struggled against unranked teams, hasn’t affected some of the teams around them.  TCU didn’t drop after narrowly escaping against Kansas.  Ohio State’s had plenty of games that were closer than they should have been and they continue to climb.  Alabama’s had some narrow escapes and Arizona’s needed Hail Mary’s and overtime to beat some of their opponents. 

 

The inconsistency of what teams are being judged on and not others is also a concern.  Oregon gets a pass for their seven-point win against Washington State and their loss the following week to Arizona because they had injuries along the offensive line.  Florida State lost a starting defensive tackle, starting center, linebackers and defensive ends over the course of the season.  Maybe they’d more impressive with those players.  Bryce Petty’s been banged up at times for Baylor, perhaps they would have won more impressively in the games he was injured.  Ole Miss has suffered major injuries on defense, as well as their best weapon on offense.  Should we forgive their losses to LSU, Auburn and Arkansas?  Georgia was without Todd Gurley for four games, do they get a pass?  The point is, everyone has injuries, they’re part of football and it’s not an excuse.  You win or you lose with the 22 players you can field each week.

 

Having said all that, these situations tend to work themselves out on the field.  Someone in the top four will lose this weekend and like with the BCS, the season long blustering from angry fans will all be for not. 

 

 

Playoff Picture

We moved at least one step closer to the final top four after rivalry weekend.  Mississippi State’s loss to Ole Miss in the Egg Bowl knocks them out of the running.  The rest of the top 8ish?… anything could happen at this point.

 

The current top four, according to the College Football Playoff Committee, in order are Alabama, Oregon, TCU and FSU.  Of those four, I think you can safely say that if Alabama, Oregon and Florida State all win out they’re locks. 

 

TCU remains the biggest thorn in the committee’s side.  While I would agree that they are probably one of the four best teams in college football, their loss to Baylor just won’t go away.  The other issue for TCU is their opponent the final week of the season.  While Baylor has a chance to make a statement against 9^th ranked Kansas State, TCU is stuck with 2-9 Iowa State.  Our final vision of TCU could be a ho-hum win.  Our final vision of Baylor could be a major win over a top 10 team. 

 

If both TCU and Baylor win, the committee will have to weigh two teams with identical records (11-1), 10 common opponents, one team has a better nonconference win (TCU over Minnesota) and a head-to-head that goes to Baylor.  The question I ask is- should TCU’s win over Minnesota carry more weight than Baylor’s head-to-head win over TCU? 

 

 

 

Bubble Watch

After last weekend, Ohio State sits in the most intriguing position in college football.  At number five and with the mess going on in the Big 12, the Buckeyes could be ready to slide into the four spot.  However, with the loss of Heisman candidate JT Barrett makes this weekend’s championship game against a very good Wisconsin team a major challenge.  Should Ohio State win, the committee will still have an interesting dilemma and will need to judge whether the Buckeyes, without their star quarterback, are a viable playoff option.  So, with Barrett, this team had a very good shot a sneaking into the playoff.  Without Barrett, this becomes a much cloudier issue.

 

We addressed Baylor earlier and it’s my opinion that if they win, regardless of TCU, they’ll jump Ohio State and TCU and get into the playoff.  They will also be big fans of Missouri, Arizona, Iowa State and Georgia Tech this week.

 

Arizona is probably the last team with a legit shot at making the playoff with a win this weekend.  Beating Oregon twice in one season, coming out of a Pac-12 South that possibly the most competitive division in the country and wins over USC, UCLA, Utah and ASU, all ranked teams would complete a pretty impressive resume.  Would an 11-2 record and that resume be enough to jump Baylor/TCU and Ohio State to get into the playoff? 

 

The real wild card to this whole thing is the Missouri Tigers.  After an inexplicable loss at home to Indiana and another drubbing at home to Georgia, everyone just forgot about Mizzou.  Now, on the heels of six straight SEC wins, Missouri has the opportunity to wreak havoc if they do the unthinkable and beat Alabama on Saturday.  Unlike Arizona, the Tigers don’t have the resume to potentially offset their two losses.  However, with seven straight wins, including a win over a No. 1 Alabama team and an SEC crown, would the committee really leave the SEC out of the first ever College Football Playoff?  Or, would they point to the SEC dominance, superior conference schedule and recent win to boost them into the mix?  It’s a stretch and Mizzou would probably need losses by FSU, TCU, Baylor and Ohio State.

 

 

Thanks for reading!  Follow us on Twitter @307CollegeFB and Like us on Facebook.  Big week coming up.  Check back soon for our Conference Championship breakdown.