Week 11 Preview

Week 11 Previews

Top 25 vs. Top 25

No. 4 Oregon (8-1, 5-1 Pac-12) @ No. 17 Utah (6-2, 3-2 Pac-12), 10pm ET, ESPN/WatchESPN

Line: UO -8, O/U: 60

Oregon is going to need their offensive line to play their best game of the season here.  They played well a week ago against another physical Pac-12 opponent with their win over Stanford, but the Utes pose a different challenge.  Utah is probably equally physical and should be looking to rebound after a tough loss last weekend at Arizona State.  The Utes lead the nation in sacks and they’ll need that pass rush to be firing on all cylinders to have a chance against the Ducks.

Oregon’s offense seems to be well over that loss to Arizona and has averaged 47.7ppg over their last four games.  Four of those wins were against two of the better defenses in the conference in Washington and Stanford.  Marcus Mariota is cruising and if he get a little time and some running lanes Oregon could blow this one wide open.  

I can see Utah keeping this game close and with the defense and special teams a Ute win would completely surprise me.  That said, the Ducks are rolling and I’m taking them to win here.  Close for three quarters but Oregon will pull away with a late touchdown or three.

Jeremy- Oregon 38, Utah 23

Nick-Oregon 35, Utah 20

No. 5 Alabama (7-1, 4-1 SEC) @ No. 16 LSU (7-2, 3-2 SEC), 8pm ET, CBS

Line: BAMA -6.5, O/U: 45.5

This game looked like another Bama-LSU classic at some points and others it looks like a blowout. Good thing for us is now it is back to looking like a classic. This game beings an extremely tough next month for Alabama with this game in Death Valley, followed by Mississippi State and Auburn who both come calling in Tuscaloosa. For LSU this is the last of the really tough games on its 2014 slate and could use a huge win to give itself a chance in the SEC.

Alabama has so many weapons on offense with Blake Sims at quarterback, TJ Yeldon and Derrick Henry at running back and probably the best receiver in the country in Amari Cooper. LSU is going to do everything it can to stop Yeldon and Henry and it is going to try its best to make Sims throw the ball to someone other than Cooper. That being said, Cooper is the key to this game for the Tide. If he can make play down the field they will win this one. The Bama defense is going to have its hands full with the three headed monster running game at LSU and they are going to have to stop the ground game to force Anthony Jennings to beat them through the air.

LSU is going to need to rely on Leonard Fournette and Terrence Magee to carry the offensive load in this game, because Bama is going to load the box and force LSU to have to throw. The key for the LSU offense in this game is going to be Jennings who is going to have to make short and intermediate throws to open up the running game. The Tiger defense is young but super talented and with a night crowd in Death Valley they are going to be ready to play. The Tiger D needs to slow down Yeldon and Henry to for Sims to try and make plays through the air. They just cannot let Cooper get going or this could be a long night for the Tigers.

This game has the potential to be another classic between the two SEC West powers. I think Bama wins a close one here but LSU covers the spread.

Nick-Bama 23, LSU 17

Jeremy- Alabama 23, LSU 20

No. 6 TCU (7-1, 4-1 XII) vs. No. 7 Kansas State (7-1, 5-0 XII), 7:30pm ET, FOX

Line: TCU -6, O/U: 57.5

The fate of the Big 12 playoff hopes likely lays in the hands of the winner of this game.  Both teams come in at 7-1 overall but K-State holds the edge over TCU in the conference at 5-0 to 4-1.  TCU has been revelation offensively this season averaging 48ppg (2nd in the nation) and they’re the best in the nation in turnover margin at plus-15.  The defense doesn’t appear to be quite as dominant as they’ve been in the past but I think that’s more a product of the changes offensively than a major slip on defense.  

The Kansas State team the Horned Frogs are facing is extremely well-coached, takes care of the football and their only loss is by 6-points to an Auburn team that they outplayed.  The Wildcats are balanced, if unspectacular offensively averaging 424.1ypg (251.4 passing, 172.8 rushing) and their defense is has been solid.  The major challenge for K-State might be that this game is on the road.  The Wildcats two road games this year amount to a 4-point win over Iowa State and a 1-point win over Oklahoma.  While TCU isn’t the most intimidating road environment, their margin of victory at home is 47-18.  K-State will keep this game closer than that for sure and I wouldn’t be shocked if they win but I’m taking TCU is a close one.

Jeremy- TCU 30, K-State 27

Nick-TCU 38, K-State 31

No. 8 Michigan State (7-1, 4-0 B1G) vs. No. 14 Ohio State (7-1, 4-0 B1G), 8pm ET, ABC/WatchESPN

Line: MSU -3.5, O/U: 57.5

It is interesting that this game looked like a colossal clash preseason then Ohio State losses Braxton Miller and falls to Va Tech at home and Michigan State loses to Oregon and everyone forgot about it. It seems like Ohio State is back on track and improving week-to-week. I am undecided for the most part about this game. Both teams have solid defenses and the offense seems like a toss up.

Michigan State is trying to back its way into the College Football Playoff and a big win over at top 15 Ohio State would be a major step in the right direction. Sparty again has one of the best defenses in the country and I think that will be the key for them to win this game. Pat Narduzzi will come up with some excellent blitz packages to confuse JT Barrett and force him into some turnovers or errant throws. Sparty has held five of its opponents to less than 17 points. I don’t see that here but I see this as a close one that the defense makes the play that wins the game. Offensively the Spartans need to stick with what has got them to 7-1 this year and that is use the running game to open the passing game.

Ohio State and quarterback JT Barrett are looking like a vastly improved team from what we saw in September. I do not think they are a playoff contender but they could sure create some headaches for the Spartans. The Bucks have a great defense and they are going to need it to slow down a Michigan State team that has scored 35 points in five of its last six games. If they can swallow up the running game and force the Spartans to have to throw the ball early they could be in line for an upset here.

I am very undecided on this game, but since it is in East Lansing I am going to give the slight edge to the Spartans, but Ohio State covers.

Nick-Michigan State 31, Ohio State 30

Jeremy- Michigan State 28, Ohio State 26

No. 9 Arizona State (7-1) vs. No. 10 Notre Dame (7-1), 3:30pm ET, ABC/WatchESPN

Line: ASU -2.5, O/U: 59.5

This showdown in the desert pits two teams on the outside looking in on the playoff but both teams have a shot a sneaking in if they’re able to win out.  ASU is sitting atop the Pac-12 South and come in with wins over USC, Stanford, Washington and Utah in their last four games.  The Sun Devil defense is improving week by week and have allowed 10 points, 10 points and 16 points in their last three games.  The offense took a bit of a step back last week and are trying to find their identity with changes under center.  Mike Bercovici was hitting his stride, going 3-1 as the starter.  Taylor Kelly has a higher ceiling and if he’s clicking probably gives this offense the best chance to win but Kelly struggled last week against Utah, throwing for only 205 yards with one touchdown and one INT.  

Notre Dame shook off a tough loss to Florida State with a win over rival, Navy last weekend.  The Irish seem to play to the level of their competition, outplaying both FSU and Stanford but struggling against Purdue, UNC and Navy.  One advantage Notre Dame has here is a quarterback.  Everett Golson has played very well this season and might be the best player on the field.  Golson has a solid group of receivers to go to and the emergence of Tarean Folston gives them a legit threat in the running game.  The defense will need to play up this weekend and win the line of scrimmage against ASU and force Kelly to stay in the pocket and make tough throws.

Jeremy- Notre Dame 34, Arizona State 30

Nick- Notre Dame 41, Arizona State 38

No. 12 Baylor (7-1, 4-1 XII) @ No. 15 Oklahoma (6-2, 3-2 XII), 12pm ET, FOX Sports 1

Line: OU -5.5, O/U: 73.5

Here is a playoff elimination game for Baylor. If the Bear can win this one they are still in the hunt for a playoff spot. Go down here and thats the end. I have seen so much this week about the “dueling gunslingers” in Bryce Petty and Trevor Knight. I am ok calling Petty a gunslinger but the jury is still out on Knight. The quarterback position will be the key in this game. If Petty vastly outplays Knight which I am expecting in this one I think Baylor should win by two touchdowns.

I have not been impressed with the consistency of Oklahoma this season. The Sooners are no doubt one of the best teams in the country but not to the elite level even I once thought they were. Their key in this game is to get the running game going and control the ball. The longer they keep the Baylor defense on the field and Petty off the field the better. Knight and Samaje Perine are going to be the keys for the Sooners on the ground and they are tasked with ball control. Defensively it is going to come down to stopping the Bears from gaining yardage on first down and especially important to get them off the field on third down.

If the Baylor offense can start the game making some first downs and moving the ball consistently look out we either could be in for a shootout or a blowout. I am guessing the latter. Petty gives Baylor a huge advantage at quarterback and it is important for him to make big plays down the field. Baylor defense needs to slow down the Sooner running game and just like OU needs to consistently get off the field on third down.

If both defenses are struggling to get off the field this game could go over 100 combined points. I don’t see that from looking at the numbers but I won’t be surprised if it gets above 70 or 80 in this one. Baylor wins a close hard fought game.

Jeremy- Oklahoma 31, Baylor 27

Nick- Baylor 45, Oklahoma 42

Top 25

No. 1 Mississippi State (8-0) vs. UT Martin (5-5), 4pm ET, SEC Network/WatchESPN

MSU’s next three games are at Alabama, vs. Vandy and at Ole Miss.  Their job this weekend.  Win and stay healthy.

Jeremy- MSU 42, UT Martin 14

Nick-Miss State 45, UT Martin 10

No. 2 Florida State (8-0, 5-0 ACC) vs. Virginia (4-5, 2-3 ACC), 6:30p ET, ESPN/WatchESPN

Line: FSU -19, O/U: 55.5

Virginia is a pesky team, but I don’t see the Noles having a problem with them at home. Florida State should roll in this game and should be a good primer before a trip to Miami next weekend.

Jeremy- Florida State 38, Virginia 17

Nick-Florida State 45, Virginia 20

No. 3 Auburn (7-1, 4-1 SEC) vs. Texas A&M (6-3, 2-3 ACC), 3:30pm ET, CBS

Line: AUB -21.5, O/U: 66.5

A&M has been in a tail-spin since their overtime win over Arkansas at the end of September.  They stopped a three game losing skid with a win over UL Monroe last week but it wasn’t pretty.  In their three losses, the Aggies have been outscored 142-51 and looked completely overmatched.  Auburn’s offense seems to be hitting their stride and should have no trouble taking advantage of the shaky A&M defense.  The Aggies might keep it close early but Auburn should win going away.

Jeremy- Auburn 43, TA&M 24

Nick-Auburn 56, Texas A&M 31

No. 11 Ole Miss (7-2) vs. Presbyterian (5-4), 12pm ET, SEC Network/WatchESPN

Does this even require mentioning? Ole Miss needs this to get back on track and lick its wounds. I am not sure if Presbyterian will even score in this one.

Jeremy- Ole Miss 41, Presbyterian 17

Nick-Ole Miss 38, Presbyterian 3

No. 13 Nebraska (8-1), IDLE,

Next game- Sat, Nov 15 @ Wisconsin

No. 18 UCLA (7-2, 4-2 Pac-12) @ Washington (6-3, 2-3 Pac-12), 7pm ET, FOX Sports 1

Line: UCLA -6.5, O/U: 54.5

Good luck picking this game.  Both teams have had their moments but all too inconsistent to take either team seriously.  The Bruins are coming off a solid win over South rival, Arizona, their third straight win.  Washington won last week at Colorado after back-to-back losses to Oregon and Arizona State.  The Huskies seem to have the edge defensively, especially in the front seven (37 sacks is 2nd in CFB).  The trio of DT, Danny Shelton (8 sacks) and LB’s Shaq Thompson and Hau’oli Kikaha (leads the nation with 15.5 sacks) are dynamic playmakers and have the edge over an overmatched UCLA offensive line.  UCLA has allowed 30 sacks this season (115th) and if they struggle against Washington, the Bruins are in trouble.

Despite the Huskies advantage on the line of scrimmage, UCLA has one of the most dynamic players in the Pac-12 in quarterback, Brett Hundley.  Hundley has been solid throwing the football this season and is completing 71% of his passes.  If his offensive line can give him a little time, Hundley can take advantage of a so-so Washington secondary.  

Ultimately, I see the key to this game is running back/linebacker, Shaq Thompson and the role he can play in the Washington offense.  Thompson is a playmaker, with four defensive touchdowns but with a struggling offense his ability to run the football will be key.  Thompson had 174 rushing yards against Colorado last week and went for 98 the week before.  If he gets going offensively and the UW front seven can harass Hundley, the Huskies win.  

Jeremy- UCLA 27, Washington 26

Nick-Washington 35, UCLA 31

No. 19 Arizona (6-2, 3-2 Pac-12) vs. Colorado (2-7, 0-6 Pac-12), 8pm ET, Pac-12 Network

Line: AZ -16.5, O/U: 69

The Buffs look like a much improved team and although they don’t have a conference win yet they are moving in the right direction. Arizona is going to run the ball all over the Buffs and this one will be over before halftime.

Jeremy- Arizona 45, Colorado 24

Nick-Arizona 42, Colorado 17

No. 20 Georgia (6-2, 4-2 SEC) @ Kentucky (5-4, 2-4 SEC), 12pm ET, ESPN/WatchESPN

Line: UGA -10, O/U: 57

If I had to pick this game two weeks ago I would have said Georgia is a lock.  After their face-plant against Florida last weekend my confidence in the Bulldogs is wavering.  Kentucky was off to a solid start at 5-1, but have dropped their last three and have been outscored 106-43 in those games.  Certainly, Georgia will turn it up this week and take out their frustration on an overmatched Kentucky team.  I’m taking Georgia but my confidence is low.  

Jeremy- Georgia 27, Kentucky 20

Nick-Kentucky 31, Georgia 30

No. 21 Clemson 34, Wake Forest 20

Line: Clem -21, O/U: 42.5

Clemson held off a very pesky Wake Forest squad, scoring two late touchdowns to overcome early miscues.  The win keeps Clemson at No. 2 in the Atlantic and ends any hope Wake had of sneaking into a bowl.  

No. 22 Duke (7-1, 3-1 ACC) @ Syracuse (3-6, 1-4 ACC) 12:30pm ET, GamePlan/ESPN3

Line: DUKE -3.5, O/U: 51

Duke has been on a roll and are winners of their last three straight games.  The Blue Devils aren’t dominant but this is an extremely well coached football team and don’t beat themselves.  The offense is capable of putting up a ton of points and the defense is statistically 13th overall in points allowed per game at 19.3.  Syracuse has one of the worst offenses in college football and are likely without starting quarterback AJ Long, leaving them with third stringer Austin Wilson.

Jeremy- Duke 35, Syracuse 24

Nick-Duke 41, Cuse 28

No. 23 West Virginia (6-3, 4-2 XII) @ Texas (4-5, 3-3 XII), 3:30pm ET, FOX Sports 1

Line: WVU -3.5, O/U: 52

The Longhorn defense seems to be making more plays in the last few weeks and looks like they are starting to buy in. The problem is West Virginia is hot right now and looks like it can score on about anyone. I don’t like Texas’ chances of stopping the Mountaineer offense as it will just be too much. This one will be close for most of the game, but I expect WVA to pull away in the fourth quarter.

Jeremy- Texas 23, West Virginia 21

Nick-West Virginia 38, Texas 20

No. 24 Georgia Tech (7-2, 4-2 ACC) @ NC State (5-4, 1-4 ACC), 12:30pm ET, GamePlan/ESPN3

Line: GT -4, O/U: 60.5

Georgia Tech needs this win to stay in the hunt in the Coastal.  NC State got of the schneid last week with a win over Syracuse (Dave Doren’s first in the ACC) and they’re a win away from making a bowl.  Unfortunately, I don’t see them getting this week.  

Jeremy- Georgia Tech 27, NC State 24

Nick- Georgia Tech 34, NC State 30

No. 25 Wisconsin (6-2, 3-1 B1G) @ Purdue (3-6, 1-4 B1G), 12pm ET, ESPNU/WatchESPN

Line: WIS -17, O/U: 55

Mel-gor Activate. Purdue is 81st in the country allowing nearly 175 yards on the ground per game and they are going to be lucky to keep Melvin Gordon below that. Wisconsin runs away from Purdue is this one.

Jeremy- Wisconsin 37, Purdue 23

Nick-Wisconsin 37, Purdue 14

Best of the Rest

Utah State (6-3, 3-1 MW) @ Wyoming (4-5, 2-3 MW), Friday, 8pm ET, ESPN2/WatchESPN

Line: USU -6.5, O/U: 45

The Pokes have been devastated by injuries this year which doesn’t help a new coach, but after the performance Brian Hill put on last week setting the MW all-purpose yards record with 387 total yards the Wyoming offense seems like it has a chance to make some noise. The Utah State defense is probably the best in the conference so this should be a strength-on-strength matchup as both teams play tough defense. I don’t see the total points in this one getting above 30 so expect a snoozer tonight, but this is a big game for both teams. A Wyoming win makes a respectable finish look more probable and even brings in the possibility of a bowl game. A Utah State win puts them closer to CSU in the standings but adds to the chances of a better bowl game.  The Pokes have played well at home so far this season so I think they win a low scoring affair in the Gem City.

Jeremy- Wyoming 24, Utah State 21

Nick-Wyoming 13, Utah State 10

Iowa (6-2, 3-1 B1G) @ Minnesota (6-2, 3-1 B1G), 12pm ET, ESPN2/WatchESPN

Line: IOWA -1, O/U: 43.5

Believe it or not, this game will go a long way in determining the B1G West.  Minnesota and Iowa are tied with Wisconsin in the standings and a loss here likely means the loser is out of the conference race.  Neither team has a quality win and neither team is really exceptional at anything.  Flip a coin.

Jeremy- Iowa 28, Minnesota 24

Nick-Minnesota 27, Iowa 24

Michigan (4-5, 2-3 B1G) @ Northwestern (3-5, 2-3 B1G), 3:30pm ET, ESPN2/WatchESPN

Line: Mich -1.5, O/U: 41

Hoke is almost surly out at Michigan, but if there’s any hope of saving his job the Wolverines will have to win out.  That starts with a win at Northwestern.  

Jeremy- Michigan 27, Northwestern 23

Nick-Northwestern 28, Michigan 24

Iowa State (2-6, 0-5 XII) @ Kansas (2-6, 0-5 XII), 3:30pm ET

Line: ISU -3.5, O/U: 54.5

Well… someone’s going to get a conference win.

Jeremy- ISU 27, Kansas 23

Nick-ISU 21, Kansas 20

Louisville (6-3, 4-3 ACC) @ Boston College (6-3, 3-2 ACC), 7:15pm ET, ESPN2/WatchESPN

Line: L’Ville -3, O/U: 46

Louisville is coming off a tough home loss to Florida State last Thursday.  They gave the ‘Noles a good scare but we’ll see how they bounce back against a tough, physical, well-coached Boston College team.  Both teams play solid defense- Louisville is 6th in total defense and BC ranks 11th.  I think the Cardinals can do a little more offensively and will edge out a feisty Eagles team.

Jeremy- Louisville 23, BC 21

Nick- Louisville 20, BC 17

Players to Watch

J.T. Barrett, QB, Ohio State

Barrett has one of the toughest tasks of the weekend, going on the road to face a tough Michigan State defense.  Barrett has struggled against top defense this season, getting beat up in a loss to Virginia Tech early in the season and then struggling against two weeks ago in an 2OT win over Penn State.  The Spartans defense is of the same caliber or better than VaTech and Penn State and Barrett must have his best game of the season to have a chance in East Lancing.

Nate Orchard & Hunter Dimick, DE’s, Utah

Utah has the unenviable task of trying to slow down one of the nation’s most dynamic offenses, led by one of the most electric players.  Shutting down Mariota and the Ducks starts in the trenches and getting push on a banged up Oregon offensive line.  Orchard and Dimick will be key in keeping “Super Mariota” contained and under pressure when he drops back to pass.  Orchard and Dimick have combined for 21 sacks this season and are set the tone for the Utes No. 1 ranked pass rush (39 total sacks).

Trevone Boykin, QB, TCU

Boykin took a step back last weekend in inclement weather at West Virginia last weekend.  He’ll have to shrug that performance off quickly with K-State on deck.  The Wildcats have one of the solid defense that forces turnovers and won’t give Boykin and the TCU offense any room for error.