Top 25 vs. Top 25
Line: Aub -2.5, O/U: 64
This goes
without saying, but this is one of the most intriguing games of the weekend and
I cannot wait to see this one. This is strength on strength and the winner of
this game has a direct route to the SEC West championship. Both teams rushing
offenses and defenses are ranked in the top 15 and that is going to be the
matchup to watch in this one.
For Mississippi State this game comes down to stopping Nick Marshall and the Auburn offense. The Bulldogs are 11th in the country in rushing defense allowing 98 yards per game and they are going to need every bit of that on Saturday. The biggest flaw for the Bulldog defense is its pass coverage and they have allowed more than 320 yards per game through the air this season. This could be a major problem if they cannot stop Marshall from throwing the ball all over the field. They are going to have to rely on getting pressure on Marshall to take some of the opportunities down the field away.
Offensively, the Bulldogs look as good
as any team in the country rushing for nearly 275 yards per game and putting up
541 total yards per game this season. I know everyone is ready to hand Dak
Prescott the Heisman trophy right now but I want to see how he plays in
back-to-back big games like this before I start buying his stock. I think he
has been the engineer of an outstanding offense and him running the ball will
be key in this game. I think the Auburn defense is really going to key on
Prescott and the rushing attack forcing him to make plays through the air and
down the field.
Auburn his
looked extremely impressive this season. I was not sold on how they would be
coming off the luckiest run in college football history last season, but they
have lived up to the top 5 billing. Nick Marshall and the offense look nearly
unstoppable rushing for 268 yards per game and gaining nearly 500 yards of
total offense per game. They are running into an extremely tough defense that
loves to plug holes and stop the run so they are going to force Marshall to
throw the ball down field. I am not sure how much I trust Marshall if he is
going to be forced to throw the ball all game, but he defiantly has the weapons
to toss the ball to in D’haqueille Williams who has 25 receptions and three
touchdowns this season. The Auburn defense has looked very solid this season
and looked great last weekend against a fading LSU team. The Tigers are top 15
in the country in both rush defense and total defense and are going to make it
difficult for Prescott and the MSU offense to get going. I like this team to
stop the rushing attack and force Prescott to make plays through the air.
This game is
strength on strength when it comes to the rushing attacks and rushing defenses.
I think both defenses are going to force the opposing quarterback to make big
plays through the air and if that happens I think I trust Prescott more than
Marshall. This game has the looks of a potential shootout and if the offenses
can make plays through the air, which I think they will, it is going to be a
shootout. I think I like Prescott to make more plays downfield than Marshall
and the Bulldogs to win a high-scoring closely contested game.
Nick-Mississippi State 41, Auburn 38
Jeremy- Mississippi State 31, Auburn 27
No. 3 Ole Miss (5-0) @ No. 14 Texas A&M
(5-1), 9pm ET, ESPN/WatchESPN
Line: TAMU -2, O/U: 64.5This matchup has brought nothing but heartache for the Hugh Freeze and the Rebles since A&M joined the SEC. This Aggie team poses many of the same challenges as the ’12 and ’13 versions, especially on offense. The Aggies are leading the SEC in points per game with 47.8 and have a passing attach will be difficult for Ole Miss to stop. In last week’s loss to Mississippi State, Aggie receivers dropped 11 passes and it’s hard to imagine them not picking up their game and playing much better.
It will be
interesting to see how Ole Miss handles the pressure of following up perhaps
their biggest win in program history.
The Rebels were helped out a lot by Alabama miscues last week and they’ll
need to put last week in the past and be ready for an Aggie team looking for
blood.
Jeremy- Texas A&M 37, Ole Miss 34
Nick- Texas A&M 24, Ole Miss 20
No. 5 Baylor (5-0) vs. No. 9 TCU (4-0),
3:30pm ET, ABC/ESPN2
Line: BAY -7.5, O/U: 67
This has
become a big time Big12 matchup and will likely have conference championship
implications. Picking this game is
tricky because Baylor has played some of the worst teams in college football
and with quarterback Bryce Petty banged up, it’s hard to get a good feel for
what this team is capable of. They’re
going against a TCU team that looks to have made a huge stride this season and
is coming off a big win over Oklahoma.
Offensively,
TCU has looked like a completely different team compared to the past few
seasons. Quarterback Trevone Boykin has
been extremely efficient in the passing game and seems to fit the spread,
up-tempo system Gary Patterson and Co. have adopted. Boykin and the offense went for 469 yards
(Boykin had 395 total) and 37 points against a solid Sooner defense last week
in what was a decisive win.
Baylor is
favored in the game but TCU has traditionally been a tough win for the
Bears. The Baylor defense will certainly
be tested for the first time this season but it’s the offense that will have to
show up big. If Bryce Petty isn’t 100%
and can’t give the Bears offense the run-pass threat, it could struggle against
an always stingy Horned Frog defense.
This game
comes down to Bryce Petty (7 for 22 last week), in my opinion. If Petty is healthy I think Baylor can put up
enough points to get the win, especially with the home field advantage. If not, TCU is more than capable of going in
and getting a win.
Jeremy-
Baylor 31, TCU 27
Nick- TCU 31, Baylor 30
No. 12 Oregon (4-1) @ No. 18 UCLA (4-1),
3:30pm ET, FOX
Line: ORE -2, O/U: 70.5
The “Who’s
Offensive Line is the Worst and will Cost them the Game” Game. Flip a coin. Both teams are in a bad place as far as their
offensive lines are concerned. UCLA
allowed 10 sacks last week against Utah (a number of those were due to Hundley
holding the ball too long or just indecision) and the Ducks were unable to get
any kind of rhythm in a loss to Arizona.
Given the o-line troubles, we must look elsewhere to figure out where
this game could go. I think Oregon has
better overall playmakers on offense.
Mariota has struggled but I think he’s a better overall player than
Hundley and between the two, I’d take Mariota 10 times out of 10.
Defensively,
UCLA is probably a bit better that UCLA but neither teams has been overly
impressive on that side of the ball. The
Bruins have playmakers at linebacker in Lance Hendricks and Miles Jack and the
defensive line is solid.
Ultimately,
I think these teams are fairly even and it’s going to come down to which
quarterback can be effective despite the offensive line struggles. I like Mariota better than Hundley in an
ugly, low scoring game.
Jeremy- Oregon 24, UCLA 23
Nick- UCLA 45, Oregon 42
Line: UGA -3, O/U: 60
I was pretty solid on Georgia when I first started looking at this matchup, but now with Todd Gurley being suspended this game becomes a lot more interesting.
It is tough
to break this game down statistically without Gurley because no doubt he is the
best play on the field no matter who Georgia is playing, but the Dawgs could
struggle without him this weekend. They are going to have to rely on freshman
Nick Chubb to carry the load. Chubb has had a pretty decent season rushing for
244 yards and two scores, but he has some very difficult shoes to fill making
up for Gurley’s 154 yards per game. The Georgia ground game is going to be
important in this game but Hutson Mason is going to have to make plays to win
this game. Mason has looked pretty average this season and the Bulldogs rank
110th in the country in average passing yards. He is going to have
to figure out how to make plays to open up the running game for Chubb and
company. The Dawgs have looked pretty good on defense this year allowing 335
yards per game, which is top 30 in the country, but they have also looked shaky
at times on the road. This defense is going to need to put some pressure on
Matty Mauk and force him into bad decisions. If they can keep pressure on Mauk
and bottle up some of the Tigers outside threats they will have a chance to get
a big SEC East road win.
The Tigers
have been an interesting team to watch this season, losing to Indiana at home
(yes, Indiana) two weeks ago and then following that up with a gutty road win
at South Carolina last week. There is no real way to measure this team, because
you have no idea what you are going to get when they step out on the field. The
bright spot for this Tiger team has been Matty Mauk who has thrown for 1110
yards and 14 scores so far this season. He is looking like he is growing into
the position at the college level and is going to have to make big plays to win
this game. Mauk has some talented receivers to throw the ball to in Bud Sasser
and Darius White who have nearly 700 combined yards and seven scores. The
running back position has been mostly by committee this season but Russell
Hansbrough has been able to find the end zone six times. A balanced attack with
some big plays on the outside is what the Tigers are going to need on offense
to beat Georgia in this game, but Mauk is going to have to deal with pressure
and make plays in the face of pressure to win this one. The Tiger defense is
susceptible to giving up big chunks of yards and is allowing 381 per game with
144 of that coming on the ground. If the Tigers allow Chubb or any of Georgia’s
other backs to get above 140 yards on the ground this defense could be in for a
long day. The Mizzou defense needs to stop the Bulldog running game and for
Mason to throw the ball to win the game.
As I said, I
was solid on Georgia to win this game before the Todd Gurley suspension. I
still think the Dawgs will win this game, but it will be a lot closer than I
expected. If the Dawgs can get the ground game going enough for Hutson Mason to
find some targets in the passing game Georgia should be able to control this
game on pure talent. That being said, if Mauk and his receivers can make some
early big plays down the field look out this one could go toward the Tigers. I
just don’t think Mizzou has the horses to run with Georgia and I don’t like the
inconsistency of the Tigers. I like Georgia to win this one with a late or last
second field goal.
Nick-Georgia 37, Missouri 34
Jeremy- Georgia 31, Missouri 23
Upset Alert
Line: USC -2.5, O/U: 68.5
So… Arizona
is ranked… 10th. USC is
unranked… and USC is favored… so, explain that.
USC is a much better, more talented team than Arizona but SC has been
Jeckle and Hyde this year, beating Stanford but inexplicably losing on the road
at Boston College and at home, on a hail-mary to Arizona State last week. Given last week’s meltdown (ASU score three
touchdowns in the last 3:41), it would seem that the Trojans are due for a good
game this week. They’re getting Arizona
at a good time as the Wildcats are coming off a huge win last week over Oregon
and could be in for a bit of a letdown. If
the game comes down to a hail-mary, Arizona has the edge but I’m taking SC.
Jeremy- USC 37, Arizona 27
Nick- USC 45, Arizona 42Line: OU -14.5, O/U: 47
Nothing
about this Texas team says it should even be in the game against Oklahoma on
Saturday but, no one thought they would have had a chance a year ago and look
what happened- Texas drilled the Sooners 36-20.
Jeremy-
Oklahoma 23, UT 20
Nick-
Oklahoma 38, Texas 34
Top 25 Matchups
No. 1 Florida State (5-0) @ Syracuse (2-3),
12pm ET, ESPN/WatchESPN
Line: FSU -23.5, O/U: 53.5
FSU is
battling some injuries this week and have yet to put together a dominant four
quarters. The Orange have injury
concerns of their own with quarterback, Terrel Hunt sidelined with a broken leg
and demoted their offensive coordinator after last week’s loss to Louisville. With Notre Dame looming for FSU, I expect a
solid, if unspectacular performance and an easy win for the ‘Noles.
Jeremy- Florida State 41, Syracuse 13
Nick- FSU 48, Syracuse 17Line: ND -16, O/U: 64.5
In UNC’s
three losses this season they’ve given up an average of 51.3 points per game
and 558 yards per game. The Irish have
been steady offensively this season and quarterback Everett Golson has looked
sharp leading the offense. Defensively,
Notre Dame is third overall in scoring, limiting opponents to 12 points per
game. FSU is on deck for the Irish and
this will make for a good tune-up.
Jeremy- Notre Dame 37, UNC 20
Nick- Notre Dame 48, UNC 38
Line: BAMA -9, O/U: 56
This game
pits strength against strength and is a bit of a throwback to the good old days
of the SEC. Alabama comes in with the
nation’s third ranked run defense (64ypg) and will be tested against the
Razorbacks seventh ranked rushing offense (316.6ypg). Unfortunately for Arkansas, I see this
playing right into the hands of what Saban and Co. do best and though they
might keep it close for a half, Alabama will show the league that they’re still
the top dog.
Jeremy- Alabama 37, Arkansas 17
Nick- Alabama 38, Arkansas 27
No. 8 Michigan State (4-1) @ Purdue (3-3), 3:30pm
ET, ABC/ESPN2
Line: MSU -21, O/U: 51
Hey, Purdue
is 3-3, tripling their win total from last year and notching their first B1G (get
it?) win since November, 24th of 2012… And that’s where it will end
for the Boilermakers. Michigan State has
buried lesser competition this season and will do that same on Saturday.
Jeremy- Michigan State 44, Purdue 13
Nick- Michigan State 56, Purdue 17
Next game- Oct. 18 vs. Rutgers
Line: OKST -20.5, O/U: 50.5
The Cowboys
have ripped off four straight after their opening day loss to FSU, scoring
41.3ppg. Kansas is, well, Kansas. That’s all I have to say about that. This one
will be over by halftime.
Jeremy- Oklahoma State 40, Kansas 13
Nick- Oklahoma State 42, Kansas 10
No. 17 Kansas State (4-1), IDLE
Next game-
Oct. 18 @ OklahomaLine: ECU -16, O/U: 58
The only
thing USF has going for it here is the fact that ECU has been held to its
lowest scoring totals (23 @ South Carolina and 28 @ VaTech) in its road
games. The Bulls haven’t seen an offense
like this and risk whiplash watching Shane Carden lead this team up and down
the field.
Jeremy- ECU 43, USF 21
Nick- ECU 45, USF 24Next game- Oct. 18 vs. Stanford
Next game- Oct. 18 @ Northwestern
Line: GT -3.5, O/U: 58
A clash of
styles in this ACC Coastal matchup.
Duke’s 93rd ranked run defense will have to step up their
play if they have any hope of winning on the road at Georgia Tech. The Blue Devils can move the football but their
opportunities will be limited against the ball control offense. The Yellow Jackets haven’t lost to Duke since
2003.
Jeremy-
Georgia Tech 24, Duke 23
Nick- Georgia Tech 38, Duke 30Next game- Thursday, Oct. 16 @ Oregon State
Line: Stan -17, O/U: 52.5
Good news-
even Stanford should be able to score against this defense. Wazzou’s maligned defense ranks 90th
in overall defense and 105th in scoring and while Kevin Hogan and
the Stanford offense has struggled, they should be able to find a rhythm on
Friday night. On the other side of the
ball, we should get an exciting matchup between Stanford’s second ranked pass
defense and number one ranked scoring defense against the ‘Cougs top ranked
passing offense (523ypg). I see the
Cardinal grounding WSU’s up-tempo offense and getting themselves back on track
in the Pac-12.
Jeremy-
Stanford 30, Washington State 17
Nick-
Stanford 24, Washington State 20
Best of the Rest
LSU (4-2) @ Florida (3-1), 7:30pm ET,
SEC Network/WatchESPN
Line: LSU -1, O/U: 47
Awful
quarterback situation vs. awful quarterback situation. Flip a coin here. I think it’s the Les Miles thing to do here
and get a win and a Will Muschamp thing to do to lose.
Jeremy- LSU 24, Florida 16
Nick- Florida 9, LSU 7
UMass (0-6) @ Kent State (0-5), 2pm ET,
ESPN3
Line: UMass -1.5
Someone’s
coming outta here with a win!
Jeremy- UMass 31, Kent State 17
Nick- Umass 34, Kent State 14Line: NCST -3.5, O/U: 56
“The Former
Florida Quarterbacks Who Transferred but Florida Would like Back Because
They’re Both Better Than Jeff Driskel” Game.
NC State is coming off back-to-back ACC losses to Florida State and
Clemson, but won their first four and have a solid quarterback in Jacoby
Brissett. BC will give the Wolfpack a
game but NC State gets the win at home.
Jeremy- NC
State 27, BC 24
Nick- Boston College 17, NC State 14
Louisville (5-1) @ Clemson (3-2),
3:30pm ET, ESPNU/WatchESPN
Line: Clemson -9.5, O/U: 47.5
This is a
big ACC Atlantic matchup with the winner staying alive in the Atlantic race and
the loser out of the hunt. Clemson has
been a different team since freshman quarterback Deshaun Watson took over. He nearly beat FSU in Tallahassee and has led
the offense to 91 points in the last two games.
In those two wins Watson has 796 total yards and 10 total
touchdowns. Louisville has played well
defensively but they haven’t seen an offense like the one the Tigers roll
out. Combine that with Clemson’s home-field
advantage and I see another solid win for Dabo and the Tigers.
Jeremy- Clemson 38, L’ville 20
Nick- Clemson 41, L’ville 24
Washington (4-1) @ Cal (4-1), 6pm ET,
Pac-12 Network
Line: Cal -3.5, O/U: 69.5
The worst
team in the Pac-12 North is taking on the top team in the North… Seriously,
look at the standings. I know it’s
strange to see Cal in the position they’re in but given the struggles the
Huskies have had against up-tempo, pass heavy offenses, this could actually be
a pretty competitive game. I’m taking UW
but wouldn’t be surprised if Cal pull it out.
Jeremy- Washington 34, Cal 30
Nick- Washington 48, Cal 41Line: MICH -1, O/U: 40.5
So, this
game may not have the appeal that we all thought it would but with the state of
the Penn State offensive line, it’s a winnable game for Michigan.
Jeremy- Michigan 27, Penn State 23
Nick- Penn State 27, Michigan 20
Wyoming (3-2) @ Hawaii (1-4), Sunday,
12am ET
Line: Hawaii -5, O/U: 45.5The Pokes, fresh off a bye week, travel to Hawaii to take on the 1-4 Warriors. Despite their record, Hawaii has given Pac-12 teams, Washington and Oregon State some difficulty. Traveling to Hawaii comes with a unique set of challenges and we’ll see if the Pokes can focus and leave paradise with a win.
Jeremy- Wyoming 20, Hawaii 19
Nick- Wyoming 24, Hawaii 10
Players to Watch
Marcus Mariota, QB, Oregon/Brett Hundley,
QB, UCLA
Both
quarterbacks are coming off poor performances in losses last week and both are
playing behind bad offensive lines. The
quarterback who is able to overcome their offensive line shortcomings will be
the one who will lead his team to victory.
This week
against TCU will be one of the biggest games in Bryce Petty’s career. The Horned Frogs have found an offense to go
along with what has always been a stingy defense. This team has given Baylor some of their
toughest tests since joining the Big12 and this year will be no different. Petty has been a bit banged up the past few
weeks and will have to put up a Heisman-type performance to lead the Bears to a
win.
Perhaps no
player has meant more to his team’s success this season than running back Todd
Gurley has to Georgia. With Gurley
facing a suspension the task falls to two true freshman running backs, Nick
Chubb and Sony Michel. The pair has
combined for 447 yards and 5 touchdowns- 326 few yards and three fewer touchdowns
than the player they’re replacing. With
the struggles at quarterback, it’s up to these two to keep the Dawgs moving
forward.
As always, thanks for reading! Feel free to leave a comment and tell us what you thing or hit us up on Twitter @307CollegeFB
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