Saturday, September 6, 2014

Week 2 Previews, Picks, Prognostications and Predictions


 
Week 2 of the college football season only bring us two matchups between top 25 teams but those two games will play a major role in how the playoff shakes out as both games involve arguably the three best teams in the Pac-12.  Outside of these two games, we’ve got some other intriguing matchups.  Notre Dame and Michigan play their final game for the foreseeable future, the Florida Gators will play their first game (assuming they’ve got the field conditions fixed) and we’ve got some ranked teams on upset alert.

 

Top 25 vs. Top 25

#3 Oregon vs. #7 Michigan State, 6:30pm ET, FOX (Line: UO -12, O/U: 58)

This game has all the makings of an early season playoff showdown. I don’t want to get caught up in all the hype, but there is no doubt that the potential is here to have these two teams at the No. 4 and No. 5 spots at the end of the season and this game decides which goes to the playoff. Ok, now that I have that overreaction out of the way I can really talk about this game. I have heard all week people saying this is a strength on strength game with Oregon’s offense against the Michigan State defense.  I do agree with that, but I think this comes down to the plays made of the other side of the ball for each team.

How will Oregon’s defensive line handle a physical running game from Michigan State? How will Michigan State’s offense control the aggressive style of Oregon’s defense? It is tough to make those calls since both teams had sleepers for first games and calling out the stats from those games is worthless. I think this will come down to the trenches with Oregon’s D-line cracking first and Michigan State’s offense out physicalling (I know it’s not a word, this isn’t English class) the Oregon defense. I think Oregon will disrupt the Spartans for the first part of this game, but once Michigan State settles in it should be able to find the running game. I also look for Michigan State’s defense to put some pressure of Marcus Mariota and disrupt the backfield. We all know that if you play defense in Oregon’s backfield it is going to have trouble getting its lighting fast offense going.

This game isn’t all about Michigan State.  If Mariota and company can get the ball moving against Sparty it could be 21-0 before we know it and Michigan State will have trouble playing catch up. I don’t really see that happening, but I expect Autzen and its crowd to play an early effect on this game and give the Ducks a little bit of a boost.

I am going to give Michigan State the edge here and I know I am in the minority, but I think the MSU defense will slow down the Oregon offense enough to keep it off balance.

Nick- Michigan State 35, Oregon 31
Jeremy- Michigan State 27, Oregon 23

 

#13 Stanford vs. #14 USC, 3:30pm ET, ABC/ESPN3 (Line: Stanford -3, O/U: 54.5)

Here is a heavy weight game in the Pac-12 that could go a long way to reestablishing USC as a contender in the conference or show that Stanford is still a dominate force in the conference. I know everyone is really high on how USC played against Fresno State, but let’s not forget the Bulldogs are down this year after losing loads of talent. USC is an extremely talented team on the front end, but in a physical game like this I see depth being an issue for the Trojans. I do think USC has the ability to make this one heck of a football game with Cody Kessler and the offense looking like it could move the ball on anyone. I think the Trojan defense is solid, but can it handle a physical wear-you-out offense from Stanford?

I am giving Stanford the edge in this game because not only is it in Palo Alto, but the Cardinal style should be able to wear down a USC team that is struggling with depth. The Cardinal loves to run the ball and control the clock and against a USC defense that is strong at all positions but could wear down as the game grinds on. The Stanford offense will be the key if Kevin Hogan can make some throws to draw the USC secondary up and if the running game gets going I think Stanford should control this game. I think Stanford’s defense is going to slow down Kessler and the USC offense in this one and keep pressure on Kessler and force him into throws that he can’t quite make.

Stanford should be able to control the line of scrimmage on both sides of the ball in this game and I think it should come away with the revenge victory after the loss to SC last season. I like Stanford to control the ball and win this game on the ground.

Nick- Stanford 28, USC 24
Jeremy- Stanford 31, USC 24

 

 
Upset Alert

 
#8 Ohio State vs. Virginia Tech, 8pm ET, ESPN/WatchESPN (Line: OSU -11, O/U: 47)

I put OSU on upset alert here even before Braxton Miller went down.  Bud Foster is a master at making offenses miserable and the VaTech defense will make JT Barrett work.  However, despite the Hokies ability to compete, they simply don’t win road games against top 10 opponents.  The Buckeyes will get a scare but come away with a close win.

Nick- Ohio State 21, Virginia Tech 17
Jeremy- Ohio State 23, Virginia Tech 20

 
#15 Ole Miss @ Vanderbilt, 4:30pm ET, ESPN/WatchESPN (Line: Miss -20, O/U: 49.5)

Ole Miss is coming off a pretty underwhelming win over Boise State, with Bo Wallace and the offense struggling early.   Vandy is coming off a 7-turnover debacle against Temple but I think Derek Mason will right the ship and this will be a dog-fight.  In the end, the Ole Miss defense will control the line of scrimmage and it’s going to be tough to find yards for the Commodores.  Ole Miss will get the win, but Vandy’s going to make it more competitive than people think and cover the 20-point spread.

Jeremy- Ole Miss 31, Vandy 20
Nick- Ole Miss 42, Vandy 20

 
#16 Notre Dame vs. Michigan, 7:3pm ET, NBC (Line: ND -4.5, O/U: 57.5)

The last edition of this old rivalry.  Both teams come in with a lot to prove and a win here could set the tone for both teams moving forward.  Notre Dame is the favorite on the road but I think this game will come down to Devin Gardner and the Michigan offense.  Can he pull off a repeat of last year’s performance or will they sputter against this Irish defense?

Nick- Notre Dame 28, Michigan 24
Jeremy- Michigan 37, Notre Dame 34

 

 

Top 25

 

#1 Florida State vs. Citadel, 7:30pm ET, ACC Network/ESPN3

A visit from Clemson is on deck for the ‘Noles so look for them to work out some kinks from week 1 and stay healthy.  FSU will rotate in a lot of young players in order to work on depth and see who can step in and contribute as the season goes on. 

Jeremy- FSU 51, Citadel 10
Nick- FSU 45, Citadel 7

 
#2 Alabama vs. Florida Atlantic, 12pm ET, SEC Network/WatchESPN (Line: Bama -42, O/U: 53)

Nebraska steamrolled FAU last week.  Look for ‘Bama to do the same.  It’ll be an easy win for the Tide but I see them working through some personnel questions (getting Jacob Coker some playing time), so they may not cover the 42.

Jeremy- Alabama 41, FAU 10
Nick- Alabama 38, FAU 13

 
#4 Oklahoma @ Tulsa, 12pm ET, ABC/ESPN2 (Line: OU -26, O/U: 59)

OU has dominated Tulsa in past matchups and this provides one more tune-up game for the Sooners before the Vols come to town.

Jeremy- Sooners 45, Tulsa 13
Nick- OU 45, Tulsa 14

 
#5 Auburn vs. San Jose State, 7pm ET, ESPN2/WatchESPN (Line: Aub -34, O/U: 67)

Auburn came alive in the second half last week.  Look for Nick Marshall to shake off the rust as the Tigers prep for a trip to K-State in two weeks.

Jeremy- Auburn 51, SJSU 20
Nick- Auburn 42, SJSU 24

 
#9 Texas A&M vs. Lamar, 7:30pm ET, SEC Network/WatchESPN

“Kenny Heisman” will keep rolling against Lamar.

Jeremy- TAMU 55, Lamar 14
Nick- TAMU 52, Lamar 17

 
#10 Baylor, Northwestern State, 7:30pm ET

See FSU-Citadel.  Stay healthy.

Jeremy- Baylor 60, NWSt 7
Nick- Baylor 63, NWSt 10

 

#11 UCLA vs. Memphis, 10pm ET, Pac-12 Network (Line: UCLA -22, O/U: 57)

Will this be the contender-UCLA team we expected at the start of the season or will we get the UCLA that barely survived against Virginia?

Jeremy- UCLA 37, Memphis 17
Nick- UCLA 41, Memphis 13

 

#12 LSU vs. Sam Houston, 7:30pm ET, SEC Network/WatchESPN

I expect a bit of a letdown from LSU this week.  The Tigers will win but I think the goal here will be to work through some kinks on offense.  They’ll win handily, if unimpressive.

Jeremy- LSU 34, Sam Houston 10
Nick- LSU 38, Sam Houston 3

 

#17 Arizona State @ New Mexico, 7pm ET, CBS Sports Network (Line: ASU -24, O/U: 69)

ASU gets another easy win here.

Jeremy- ASU 47, UNM 17
Nick- ASU 52, UNM 20

 

#18 Wisconsin vs. W. Illinois, 12pm ET, BTN (Line: WIS -41, O/U: 52.5)

Western Illinois will provide Wisconsin a nice confidence booster coming off their week 1 loss to LSU.

Jeremy- Wisconsin 55, W. Illinois 10
Nick- Wisconsin 45, W. Illinois 24

 

#19 Nebraska vs. McNeese State, 12pm ET, ESPNU/WatchESPN (Line: Neb -34, O/U: 65.5)

Two weeks, two garbage opponents. 

Jeremy- Nebraska 51, McNeese St 17
Nick- Nebraska 63, McNeese St 24

 

#20 Kansas State @ Iowa State, 12pm ET, FOX Sports 1 (Line: KSU -13, O/U: 54.5)

Iowa State and Paul Rhodes usually has a trick or two up their sleeves, especially in Ames.  That said, I don’t think K-State will have any trouble putting the Cyclones away.

Jeremy- K-State 41, Iowa State 20
Nick- K-State 33, ISU 17

 

#21 South Carolina vs. East Carolina, 7pm ET, ESPNU/WatchESPN (Line: SC -16, O/U: 65)

Could South Carolina start the season 0-2?  ECU could make this one interesting but I think Spurrier will have his team focused and ready to take their frustration out ECU.

Jeremy- South Carolina 41, ECU 27
Nick- South Carolina 35, ECU 14

 

#21 North Carolina vs. San Diego State, 8pm ET, ESPNews/WatchESPN (Line: UNC -16, O/U: 60)

UNC shouldn’t have any problems with SDSU traveling to the East Coast.

Jeremy- UNC 41, SDSU 21
Nick- UNC 38, SDSU 28

 

#23 Clemson vs. S Carolina State, 12:30pm ET, ACC Network/ESPN3 (Line: Clem -34, O/U: 56.5)

Clemson takes out some frustration this week.

Jeremy- Clemson 51, SCST 7
Nick- Clemson 42, SCST 17

 
#24 Missouri @ Toledo, 12pm ET, ESPN/WatchESPN (Line: MIZZ -4, O/U: 61)

At first glance this looks like Missouri all the way.  A closer look and this is an upset in the making.

Jeremy- Missouri 37, Toledo 23
Nick- Missouri 35, Toledo 20

 
#25 Louisville vs. Murray State, 7pm ET, ESPN3

Bobby Petrino and the Cardinals got a great start to the season with their win over ACC foe, Miami.  Win number two should be a breeze.

Jeremy- Louisville 47, Murray State 14
Nick- Louisville 48, Murray State 24

 
 

Best of the Rest

 
Texas vs. BYU, 7:30pm ET, FOX Sports 1 (Line: BYU -1, O/U: 46)

This is a great early season test for Charlie Strong and his Texas Longhorns.  Their loss to BYU was an epic disgrace for UT nation as Taysom Hill and the Cougars ran over, through and around a completely incompetent defense.  At full strength I’d go with Strong and the ‘Horns here but injuries and suspensions will hurt UT.  Hill won’t run wild like he did a year ago but with the major question marks for the UT offense, BYU will do just enough to come away with a win.

Jeremy- BYU 27, UT 23
Nick- UT 28, BYU 27

 
Kentucky vs. Ohio, 3:30pm ET, ESPNU/WatchESPN (Line: UK -14, O/U: 52)

Kentucky starts the season with a win and need to keep taking care of business against their non-conference opponents if they hope to make a bowl in year two under Mark Stoops.

Jeremy- Kentucky 34, Ohio 21
Nick- Kentucky 34, Ohio 17

 
Washington vs. Eastern Washington, 3:05pm ET, Pac-12 Network

I thought about putting this game in the upset alert category but I’m going to just go ahead and call last week’s near miss at Hawai’i an aberration.  Eastern Washington is a solid FCS program who’s beaten FBS teams in the past (just ask Oregon State).  Getting Cyler Miles back at quarterback will make a big difference for the Huskies and they’ll pull away in the second half.

Jeremy- Washington 34, E Washington 17
Nick- Washington 42, E Washington 34

 
Pittsburg @ Boston College, Friday, 7pm ET, ESPN/WatchESPN

A solid, early ACC matchup here between Pitt and BC.  Pitt should be a player in the Coastal Division and they need to take care of a middle of the pack Atlantic team.  At game being at BC could make it tricky but I think Pitt squeak out a win.

Jeremy- Pitt 26, BC 20
Nick- Pitt 31, BC 17 

 
Northern Illinois @ Northwestern, 3:30pm ET, BTN (Line: NW -7, O/U: 58.5)

The train went off the rails pretty fast for Northwestern last season and they’re not off to a very encouraging start so far after a week one loss, at home to Cal.  NIU is among the best non-power five teams in the country and will give NW all they can handle.

Jeremy- NIU 31, N’Western 27
Nick- N’Western 27, NIU 26
 

Florida vs. Eastern Michigan, 4pm ET, SEC Network/WatchESPN (Line: UF -41, O/U: 55.5)

No one in Florida will be happier to play a game than Coach Will Muschamp.  The Gators need to play a game and get this season rolling.  We might see a slow start as UF works through some kinks in their first game.  The 41-point spread is a little rich for me but the Gators will win handily. 

Jeremy- UF 42, EMU 13
Nick- UF 28, EMU 14

 
Air Force @ Wyoming, 10:15pm ET, ESPNU/WatchESPN (Line: AFA -1, O/U: 51.5)

A battle of Mountain West rivals.  This will be a good test for Coach Bohl and the new Cowboy defense.  The Pokes ran roughshod over the Falcons in Colorado Springs last year.  This will be a low scoring, defensive struggle.  I’m going with the Pokes at home.  Homer pick?  Sure.

Jeremy- Wyoming 20, AFA 17
Nick- Wyoming 17, AFA 13

 

 
Players to Watch

 
Taysom Hill, QB, BYU

Hill and the BYU ground game ripped the Longhorns last year to the tune of 550 rushing yards.  In Round 2, we’ll see a much more discipline, physical Texas defense and running lanes will be much smaller and filled much harder.  Hill is the key to success in this game.

 
Ty Montgomery, WR, Stanford

In a game like this, special teams and big plays will make the difference.  Montgomery is the only proven playmaker on the Stanford offense and he’ll need to be big time in the return game and as a deep threat for Kevin Hogan.

 
Shaq Calhoun, DE, Michigan State

Stopping the Oregon offense starts with pushing the line of scrimmage backwards.  That starts with Calhoun and the Spartan defensive line.  No push, no win.  Big push and they have a shat.

 
Devin Gardner, QB, Michigan

Gardner played his best game against Notre Dame last year and this year the Irish are down some of their best defensive players.  If No. 98 gets time and makes good decisions with the football (ie- not fumbling or throwing picks) the Wolverines can come out of the South Bend with a win. 

 
Leonard Williams, DE, USC

Stanford is going to run the ball, period.  Williams and the SC d-line will have their hands full with this physical running game and their ability to stand firm will be the difference in this game.  Williams was banged up in practice this week and if he can’t go, there’s little depth behind him. 

 

Thanks for reading!  Happy week 2!  As always, feel free to leave a comment and don't forget to follow us on Twitter @307collegefb 

 

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