Thursday Night Previews

#3 Oregon @ #6 Stanford

Instant Analysis

Say hello to your Pac-12 Champ.  It certainly looks like the winner of this game is going to be the heavy favorite moving forward for the Pac-12 title and potentially a BCS Championship birth.  Oregon comes in ranked third in the BCS, behind Alabama and Florida State but a win over Stanford would propel them back to No. 2 and clear the way for a national championship.  Standing in the way is a Stanford team that is the only team in recent season who has cracked the Oregon code.  Stanford beat Oregon last year 17-14 in overtime to keep the Ducks from winning the Pac-12 and a spot against Alabama in the championship.

This isn’t the same Stanford team the beat the Ducks a year ago but their style of play provides a great challenge for the speed and up-tempo of the Oregon offense.  The Ducks struggled to move the ball for three quarters against UCLA a few weeks ago and I think Stanford do the same.  Slowing down the Oregon offense is one thing but the real issue for Stanford is going to be their own offense.  The Cardinal offense has been up and down this season and in the past three games, they’ve only managed about 22 points a game.  The Cardinal will need their ground game to come up big and quarterback Kevin Hogan is going to have to make plays with his arm to keep the chains moving and Oregon’s defense from loading the box and making Stanford one-dimensional.

Stanford is a big underdog but that’s nothing new to them and I expect them to play their best game of the season on Thursday and give the Ducks a test for four quarters. 

Keys to Victory

Oregon

Limit Ty Montgomery and the Stanford return game.  Even when Stanford’s offense has struggled, the special teams have come up big.  Montgomery pretty much won the Washington game on his own, taking momentum back and giving the Cardinal short fields. 

Make Hogan beat you.  Oregon as a fast, athletic defense and I think they should just load the box, run blitz and make Stanford throw.  Kevin Hogan has been very average this season completing only 61% of his passes and is only averaging 186.6 passing yards per game.  Plus, the Ducks have forced 22 turnovers this season and getting the Cardinal in obvious passing situation will allow their talented secondary to ball-hawk and potentially pick off a few passes. 

Offensively, Oregon has to win on first down.  The Ducks offense is built on the ground and everything hinges on success running the football- they’re second in the nation averaging 331.5 rushing yards per game.  In the first three quarters against UCLA the Ducks only scored 14 points, mostly because the Bruins forced them into second and long and third and long situations.  Oregon must stay in front of the chains.

Stanford

It’s pretty simple for Stanford.  Play as hard-nosed, smash-mouth as you can.  The Cardinal pride themselves on their front seven and if they’re going to have a chance in this game, that unit must dominate the line of scrimmage for four quarters.  The Cardinal are allowing only 103 ypg on the ground and forcing the Ducks to throw is really their only hope.  Stanford must push the line of scrimmage and disrupt Oregon in the backfield, box the Ducks in and tackle, physically in space.  I believe Oregon will start to press if they get out of rhythm on the ground that will create opportunities for turnovers. 

Stanford must win on special teams.  That means two things; regain lost field position in the return game and stop Oregon’s trick plays on special teams.  You the Ducks will take some chances on special teams- fake punt’s, onside kicks, fake field goals, etc.  If Stanford can win these situations they’ll force Oregon to put together long, slow drives.  Plus, like I mentioned above, if Ty Montgomery can turn a few big returns in, Stanford can win the field position battle and keep Kevin Hogan and the Cardinal offense in short fields.  

Prediction

Stanford has been really up and down this season and we haven’t seen them put together an entire game from start to finish.  If they come out play Oregon the way they played ASU in the first half, I think Stanford will win.  The Cardinal has shown flashes of a really dominant team but flashes won’t get you a win against Oregon.  Stanford will have to put it together for sixty-minutes.  Unfortunately, given what they’ve done offensively this year, even if the defense plays well I don’t think Stanford can put enough points on the board to keep the pressure on the Ducks.  They won’t limit Oregon to 14 points this season and unless the Cardinal score 24-30 points they don’t have a chance. 

Our Picks

Jeremy- Oregon 27-17

Nick-Oregon, 31-28

Fun Facts

Stanford leads this series 45-30-1, winning by an average score of 21.6-19.6.

Oregon has won nine of the past 11 meetings against Stanford including a seven game winning streak from 2002 to 2008. 

These schools have combined to win the past four Pac-12 Championships.

Since 1916, Oregon and Stanford have won a combined 21 conference championships.

No. 6 Baylor vs. No. 10 Oklahoma, 7:30 PM ET, Fox Sports 1

Instant Analysis: Well Bears here you go. You wanted to prove to the country that you are not lots of offensive flash, then show us. This game should show all of us what Baylor’s next four games will look like. The Bears have played absolutely no one to this points, and yes I mean no one, so tonight will be the first true test in Waco. Baylor is not the only team in this matchup to have a lot on the line Oklahoma can insert itself back into the Big 12 title hunt just one game behind Texas with a win. Its not every Thursday that we get to see such a great top 10 matchup so enjoy this one folks.

Keys to victory:

Oklahoma: The Sooners are going to need to have a huge defensive game to have a chance in this one. Good thing for OU is its No. 9 in the country in pass efficiency defense. It also needs to slow the Baylor offense at the point of attack. This means the Sooners need to get into the Bears backfield to disrupt this hurry up offense. Oklahoma needs to stop the big plays from the Baylor offense. The Bears score quickly and the Sooners need to limit. They are not going to totally stop the Bear offense totally but they need to slow it and force mistakes. The Sooners need to force a couple turnovers and get Baylor qb Bryce Petty off balance and hit Lache Seastrunk in the backfield. Basically the Sooners need to slow the Baylor offense and allow less than 35 points or they are going to lose by three touchdowns. Offensively, the Sooners need a huge game from quarterback Blake Bell mostly on the ground. If Bell, Brennan Clay and Damien Williams can control the ground game it will make a huge difference in this one. The Sooners need to use the running game and shorten the game and not allow the Baylor offense on the field. I think the Sooners will use the rushing attack to shorten the game and limit the Bear offensive possessions to win this game.

Baylor: This one is pretty simple do what you have done all season, create big plays in the hurry up offense. The Bears are averaging over 700 yards of total offense this season and if they can do that this game they will beat the Sooners by 21 points. They are going to need a great game from their offense to win this one quarterback Bryce Petty is going to have to get this offense humming early with some big plays. I think the Bears are going to have to rely on a 400-plus yard game from Petty. Petty is going to have to lead the Bears against Oklahoma’s ninth-ranked pass efficiency defense. Lache Seastrunk needs to also have a great game for the Bears he is averaging 9.1 yards per carry and he is going to need to create big plays from the running game. If the Bears can get big plays from Seastrunk and Petty they could run away with this game. For Baylor’s defense its pretty simple. It needs to force the Oklahoma offense into quick three and outs and get the ball back to its offense. The Baylor defense has been hyped a lot so far this week and we will find out if it is up to the task to stop the OU rushing attack.

I think Oklahoma will be able to slow down the Baylor offense just enough to win this game. The Sooners will run the ball effectively and force two turnovers to win get Petty off balance.  OU needs to avoid Baylor striking quickly and stop the Bear offense. I think Oklahoma is up to the task and it will prove its head coach's name of Big Game Bob. Sooners win a nail biter in this one. 

Our Picks:

Nick-Oklahoma, 45-44

Jeremy-Oklahoma, 37-34

Fun Facts:

The Bears are the highest ranked at No. 6 ever in their history. Baylor is 4-0 against Top 25 teams at home since 2011. It is on a school-record 11 game win streak. It is seeking its first-ever 8-0 start.

Oklahoma is 21-1 all-time against Baylor . That is the best winning percentage for the Sooners against any Big 12 school. Bob Stoops has 156 career victories one shy of legendary head coach Barry Switzer. Oklahoma has won 40-consecutive games when leading at half time.