Preseason Top 25 Breakdown

Rank	AP Top 25	Jeremy	Nick
1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 25	Alabama Ohio State Oregon Stanford Georgia South Carolina Texas A&M Clemson Louisville Florida Florida State LSU Oklahoma State Notre Dame Texas Oklahoma Michigan Nebraska Boise State TCU UCLA Northwestern Wisconsin USC Oregon State	Alabama Stanford Oregon South Carolina Georgia Ohio State Clemson Texas A&M Florida State Notre Dame Florida TCU Oklahoma State Oklahoma Michigan LSU Boise State Nebraska UCLA Oregon State Louisville Texas Northwestern Miami Washington	Alabama Stanford South Carolina Georgia Ohio State Oregon Notre Dame LSU Boise State Clemson Florida Florida State TCU Texas A&M Northwestern Louisville Oklahoma Oklahoma State Kansas State Oregon State Nebraska Texas Michigan Fresno State Wisconsin

AP Overrated
Texas A&M
The issue with Texas A&M isn’t so much that they’re overrated, it’s more will Johnny Manziel play and if he does, will he be able to drown out all the noise surrounding him?  Manziel’s offseason has been well documented and I’m not going to get into that here, except to point out the possible distraction all that nonsense could be for him.  Not helping the matter are the recent allegations he’s facing and his potential suspension that puts A&M in an interesting predicament.  Without Manziel what kind of team is this?  I doubt Kevin Sumlin has another Johnny Football waiting in the wings, ready to step in if Manziel is ruled ineligible.  Bottom line- if Manziel is either not his Heisman self or not on the field, A&M will be an afterthought by season’s end.

Texas
Iam not really sure what to think of the Longhorns this season I am having a tough time thinking they are a top-15 squad. Without a quarterback set and with it looking like the terribly inconsistent David Ash winning the battle in camp, the Longhorns are going to have to rely a lot on the running attack. Another concern with the Horns is their defense. The defense was average at best last season and had two of the best defensive players in the county in Kenny Vaccaro and Alex Okafor, who are now both in the NFL. The defense is going to need to grow up and make some plays in a hurry this season. I put Texas at No. 22 in my poll because there are just too many question marks on this team to warrant a top-15 ranking. The Horns have a chance to win some games this season but they are fourth-best team in the Big 12.

Louisville

I know that most people will adamantly disagree with me on this one, but I just don’t see Louisville as the ninth-best team in the country. No doubt Teddy Bridgewater is one of the best quarterbacks in the country and this team returns a lot of talent from the Sugar Bowl that upset Florida last season. I have a hard time believing this is a top-10 team because the first time it will actually get a “test” (notice the quotes) is against Cincinnati toward the end of the season. I cannot rank a team in the top 10 that might not play a top-25 team until a BCS bowl game.

AP Underrated

Florida State
Chalk this up to an over-optimistic Seminole fan.  I know they had a ton of turnover on the coaching staff, they’re replacing 11 NFL draft picks and will have a new starting quarterback.  However, when you look at the players filling those shoes left by the draft, almost every position has been upgraded.  Replacing quarterback, EJ Manuel, won’t be easy but Jameis Winston and Jacob Coker are both extremely talented and have experience around them (4 starters return on the o-line, two running backs and 4 top receivers).  Plus, we’ve seen young quarterbacks step in and dominate early before- (see- Braxton Miller, Johnny Manziel, Brett Hundley, Kevin Hogan, Marcus Marriota, etc, etc.).  I like the Seminoles in the ACC and perhaps as an outside BCS Championship contender.  This team will be very strong.

Boise State

Well, it’s Boise State.  What other reason do you need?  This team is the perennial overachiever and this year’s team should be no different.  The Broncos return a veteran quarterback and a defense that finished strong a season ago.  The Mountain West will more competitive this season than ever before but look for Boise State to be knocking on the BCS door by season’s end.

TCU

I am really buying the Horned Frogs stock this season. They have the best defense in the Big 12 and in that conference it goes a long way. Defensive back Jason Verett leads possibly one of the best defenses in the country, the Frogs all the way down at 20 in the AP poll is a little low for them. The reason the Frogs are ranked so low is the question mark of Casey Pachall returning from a yearlong suspension. If Pachall can come back and play like the Pachall of 2011 this team would be able to win the Big 12. TCU’s biggest hurdle is going to be a difficult schedule, but with a great defense it should have a shot at a run at its first Big 12 title and another BCS appearance.  

Jeremy’s Most likely to disappoint
Clemson
Clemson is a solid team and I think they’ve got a good chance to win the ACC but BCS dark horse?  I think not.  They’ve got a season opener against Georgia, a mid-season visit from Florida State and a season finale at South Carolina… the Tigers have their work cut out for them.  Chances are they won’t drop all three but two of three isn’t out of the question and there’s always the random ‘Clemson loss’ the Tigers seem to suffer year in and year out.  Even if they finish 10-2, I don’t think that will be enough to finish in the top 10, especially coming out of a traditionally weak ACC.

Ohio State

You heard it here; Ohio State will not play for a BCS Championship.  BCS game, maybe.  Championship? No.  It’s hard to argue with Urban Meyer, Braxton Miller, their vaunted Ohio State schedule and last season’s 12-0 record.  However, it’s not easy to go undefeated and it’s even harder to do it two years in a row.  There aren’t many pot holes on the schedule but Wisconsin, @Northwestern, Penn State and @ Michigan are no gimmies.  They’re in the drives seat at No. 2 in the country but I don’t think back-to-back undefeated is in the cards.

Nick’s Most Likely to disappoint

Texas A&M
I know this will not be a popular pick here, but I am just not sold on the Aggies in Kevin Sumlin and Johnny Manziel’s second year in College Station. There have been way too many off-field distractions for the Aggies this offseason. I know everyone is picking them as an upset chance at beating Alabama in the second week of the season, but I just do not see it. I don’t think there is any way this team is ready to beat the Tide. I do not like the attitude Manziel has had this offseason and I think he has already checked out of College Station. You heard it here first; the Aggies lose at least three games this season.

Georgia

I am not at all putting this team up here talent wise because the Dawgs are really talented, but they have a bear of a schedule and I am just not sure if they can get through it. With an opening game against Clemson, followed by a home game against South Carolina, that makes two major bumps in the road. Also LSU makes an early trip to Athens, so these Bulldogs have a really tough opening six weeks of the season. They could prove me wrong and I hope they do because that could make for one compelling storyline but with three top 15 games in the first six weeks, I think that is too tough for anyone to overcome.

Oregon
This was a tough one for me to decide because the Ducks have a ton of talent.  I just cannot get past the change at the top though. I know Mark Helfrich has been around Eugene with Chip Kelly for years, but moving to the head spot is a big difference. The other change is offensive coordinator Scott Frost, who has never called a play in a college game. I think there is a lot of difference at the top of this program and I think it is going to make a difference with this team. I think the Ducks will win a lot of games, but I do not think they will win the Pac-12 or make a run at the National Title.

Jeremy’s Second Guessing

Michigan
I’ve got Michigan at 15, the AP has them at 17 but I think Nick has them pegged a little better at 23.  I really like what Brady Hoke is doing here and there’s some talent on this team but I think they’re a year away.  Youth and inexperience is a theme on this roster and I think they can be a top 25 team this year but not much more. 

Washington

I’m on the fence about the Huskies.  I really want to like Washington and believe that this is the best team Steve Sarkesian has put on the field but a lot will have to go right for the Huskies to finish in the top 25.  To finish in the top 25, they’ll have to win at least nine games.  Looking at their schedule, that's could be a tall order.  They’ve got winnable games at Illinois and against Idaho State, Cal and Colorado but I don’t know if I see five more wins on their schedule. Washington has struggled on the road under Sarkesian and this year they don’t get any breaks with tough road games at Stanford, Arizona State, UCLA and Oregon State.  Home games against Boise State, Arizona, Oregon and Washington State are all swing games that could go either way.  They’ll have to win three of five on the road and hope for a split against Stanford, ASU, UCLA and Oregon State.  Yikes…

Nick’s Second Guessing

Boise State
I have no doubt that the Broncos are the best team in the Mountain West, but I am not totally sure if they are a top-10 preseason team. The Broncos return just nine starters from a season ago when they could not make an undefeated run in the MW. This offense will need to make up for the loss of seven starters of defense from a season ago. An opening tilt against Washington should be a great test for the Broncos and their young defense. A trip to Fresno State will also be another bump in the road. The MW is a strong conference with a lot of great quarterbacks and the Broncos are going to have to navigate that to end up where I picked them in the top 10.

Kansas State

After looking back over my top 25, I am second guessing why I put the Wildcats at No. 19 and possibly why I even put them in the top 25. I think because the Big 12 is so wide open this year I decided that because this team is so well coached it has a chance to make some noise. The more I thought about this the tougher I think it will be for this team to lose do-everything quarterback Colin Klein. Also adding to my second guessing of this team is a tough conference road schedule with trips to Stillwater to take on Oklahoma Sate and to Austin against the Longhorns. The Wildcats should be a bowl team, but after taking another look I do not think they are the No. 19 team in the country.