Saturday, August 24, 2013

Conference Previews and Predictions

SEC

As always, the SEC has a lot of competition at the top of each respective division.  Defending BCS and SEC Champs, Alabama have to be the favorite to win the West again.  An early season trip to College Station and a November, 9 visit from LSU are really the only two major obstacles for the ‘Tide.  ‘Bama has a lot of talent coming back on both sides of the ball and should be quick to reload where it’s needed.  LSU and Texas A&M are both very interesting in the West and I think the success of each depends on their quarterback positions.  For A&M, there is a plethora of questions surrounding Heisman winner, Johnny Manziel.  Whether he plays at all and if he does, how he handles the pressure he’ll surly be under will be a major story line throughout the season.  As for LSU, expect them to reload on defense, despite all the losses from last year’s squad.  The question for them will be whether or not Zach Mettenberger can improve from a very unimpressive 2012.  The rest of the West will be a battle for spots 4 through 7.  There’s a lot of hype surrounding Ole Miss but this is still a program in transition.  Don’t be surprised to see either Auburn or Arkansas come on late and turn some heads.
While the West clearly goes through Tuscaloosa, the West is much less settled.  South Carolina, Georgia and Florida all have a legit shoot at winning the division.  I like South Carolina and Georgia a little better than Florida, mostly because of quarterback play.  Jeff Driskel will have to improve significantly for the Gator to win.  Vanderbilt could be team to keep an eye on as they seem to improve each season under James Franklin.  Missouri should be better in year two in the SEC, while Kentucky and Tennessee are both in major program overhauls.  At the end of the season, I think Gamecocks win the West and meet Alabama in SEC Championship.
As for player of the year?  Jadaveon Clowney is an easy pick for POY honors but I expect big things from Alabama quarterback AJ McCarron and I think he’ll emerge from the shadow cast by Clowney and Manziel. 
West: Alabama
East: South Carolina
Winner: Alabama
Co-POY: Jadaveon Clowney, Defensive End, South Carolina
                  AJ McCarron, Quarterback, Alabama
SEC Predictions

West

West

Alabama

LSU

Texas A&M

Ole Miss

Auburn

Arkansas

Mississippi State

South Carolina

Georgia

Florida

Vanderbilt

Missouri

Kentucky

Tennessee
 
Pac-12
At first glance, the Pac-12 looks like a two team race.  Take a little deeper look, however and you’ll see a very deep, wide-open conference.  Stanford and Oregon are the favorites and rightly so but don’t be surprised if there are a few, well, surprises.  The Pac-12 North is one of the most competitive divisions in college football and will be hotly contested this year.  I keep flipping back and forth between Stanford and Oregon to win the North and finally settled on the Ducks.  I think they’ll pick up where they left off last year, despite the change at head coach.  Stanford will certainly make it interesting and if it weren’t for a brutal schedule, I like the Huskies as a sleeper.  Oregon State will be solid and look for them to be 7-0 headed into late October but, like the Huskies, the Beavers schedule gets pretty messy late.
The South is a little tricky and it’s hard not to ‘well, if’.  Well, if UCLA can avoid a drop-off in the running game and a sophomore slump from their quarterback.  Well, if Arizona State can finally live up to the speculation and potential.  Well, if USC can replace the production of Matt Barkley and Robert Woods… and not tank like they did a year ago.  Feel free to add in your own, well, if.  At the end of the day, UCLA seems like a safe pick but don’t be surprised to see ASU, USC or Arizona slid into that spot.
Marcus Mariota is my pick for Pac-12 player of the year but it’s going to be hotly contested.  The award will likely go to whichever team wins the conference- Mariota, Kevin Hogan or Brett Hundley.  Two names to keep in mind are Washington’s Keith Price and ASU’s Taylor Kelly.  Kelly was the conference’s most efficient passer in 2012 and could be ready to really breakout this year.  Price was one of the best passers in the nation in 2011 and I anticipate him to bounce back from a rough 2012 and be even better than his 2011 self.  Price could be in for a really big year.
North: Oregon
 
South: UCLA
 
Winner: Oregon
 
POY: Marcus Mariota, Quarterback, Oregon
Pac-12 Predictions

North

South

Oregon

Stanford

Washington

Oregon State

Washington State

California

UCLA

Arizona State

USC

Arizona

Utah

Colorado
 
Big 12
The Big 12 is about as wide open as any conference in the country this season. I think there are as many as six teams that can win this conference including TCU, Oklahoma State, Oklahoma, Texas, Baylor and Kansas State. I am going to have to pick the Horned Frogs to win their first Big 12 crown. The Frogs have the best defense in the conference and if quarterback Casey Pachall can return from his year off and pick up where he left off this should be the best team. The problem for the Frogs is a very tough schedule with an opening date against LSU in Arlington, Texas, as well as road trips to Norman and Stillwater in the cards. I like the way Gary Patterson prepares his team and I think the Frogs will go at least 2-1 in three of their toughest games.
Oklahoma and Oklahoma State also have a great chance at a conference crown in the Big 12. If there is an easier road for any of these teams it is Oklahoma State. The Cowboys have TCU, Oklahoma and Baylor at home. That being said, there are still question marks at quarterback and on defense for the Cowboys. Oklahoma also has a pretty manageable schedule but a trip to Notre Dame and games at Baylor, Kansas State and Oklahoma State are going to be tough to run through. OU also has question marks at the quarterback position with junior Blake Bell losing the quarterback battle to redshirt freshman Trevor Knight.
Some sleepers in the conference are both Baylor and Texas. The Bears have the best player in the conference in running back Lache Seastrunk and arguably the best offense. Texas needs a big year after a couple “non-Texas” like years. The Horns are primed for a run, but like every other team in the conference questions at quarterback could hold them up.
As for the Player of the Year I am going with Seastrunk. He has predicted he will win the Heisman, I don’t see that at all but he should put up some big numbers and have a great season.
Winner: TCU
POY: Lache Seastrunk, Running back, Baylor
Big 12 Predictions

TCU

Oklahoma State

Oklahoma

Texas

Baylor

Kansas State

West Virginia

Texas Tech

Iowa State

Kansas
 
B1G
The Big 10 is another conference that should be a one-team race with Ohio State as the best team in the conference. Don’t forget the Buckeyes had some trouble with a few of the weaker teams in the conference last season (Indiana and Purdue) and could have a few hiccups this season. I think the Buckeyes should win the conference but there are some tough teams throughout. Michigan is probably the second best team in the conference and if quarterback Devin Gardner can have a great season the Wolverines could make a run at the title. Another team to watch out for is Michigan State.  Sparty has the best defense in the conference but questions on offense should keep them from beating the Buckeyes in the title game.
My sleepers in this conference are Northwestern and Wisconsin. The Wildcats return 17 starts from a 10-win team last season that includes arguably the best running back in the conference in Venric Mark. I know Wisconsin has a new coach and loses Montee Ball but with a solid running game and a very experienced defense the Badgers have a great chance to make some noise.
The POY of this conference should be Ohio State quarterback Braxton Miller for the second-consecutive year. He is the best running back playing quarterback in the country and he should win the POY honor pretty easily again this year. The Buckeyes schedule sets up really well for him to start the season with some big numbers.
Leaders: Ohio State
Legends: Michigan State
Winner: Ohio State
POY: Braxton Miller, Quarterback, Ohio State
B1G Predictions

Leaders

Legends

Ohio State

Wisconsin

*Penn State (Ineligible for postseason)

Indiana

Purdue

Illinois

Michigan State

Northwestern

Nebraska

Michigan

Iowa

Minnesota
 
ACC
The ACC is an intriguing conference this season.  The Atlantic division is pretty clearly a battle between Florida State and Clemson.  These two are hands down the most talented teams in their division and expect the representative for the Atlantic division to be decided in their October, 19 matchup at “Death Valley.”  Outside of FSU and Clemson, Maryland should be much improved from a year ago if only from a health standpoint.  The Terps started 2012 playing well before injuries derailed their season.  You can pretty much flip a coin for how the other four in the Atlantic will finish.
The Coastal is much less clear cut than the Atlantic, with four legitimate teams capable of winning the division.  I’ve got Miami winning the Coastal but I certainly would be surprised to see North Carolina or Georgia Tech jump the ‘Canes.  Virginia Tech will need a lot of help to improve on last season’s mark.  They could surprise me but I’m not crazy about Logan Thomas, especially without a running game.  Pitt, Virginia and Duke all have a lot of question marks and I don’t see any of them finishing above .500.
The conference player of the year will likely go to the conferences winning quarterback.  I think it’s a three way battle between Clemson’s Tajh Boyd, Miami’s Stephen Morris and Maryland’s Stefan Diggs.  FSU’s Jameis Winston, UNC’s Bryn Renner and Clemson’s Sammy Watkins could all seek into the conversation as well. 
Costal: Miami
Atlantic: Florida State
Winner: Florida State
POY: Tajh Boyd, Quarterback, Clemson
ACC Predictions

Coastal

Atlantic

Miami

Georgia Tech

North Carolina

Virginia Tech

Pitt

Virginia

Duke

Florida State

Clemson

Maryland

NC State

Boston College

Wake Forest

Syracuse
 
America Athletic Conference
This conference is a one horse race and Louisville should run through this weak conference schedule with ease. No doubt the Cardinals have the best player in the conference in quarterback Teddy Bridgewater and he should run away with the Player of the Year honors. Louisville’s only remote competition in this conference could be Rutgers, but it gets the Scarlet Knights at home and should be able to handle them. The Cardinals should be undefeated going into their final game at Cincinnati on Dec. 5. They should get around the Bearcats and with some luck have a chance at a National Title appearance.
Winner: Louisville
POY: Teddy Bridgewater, Quarterback, Louisville
American Athletic Conference

Louisville

Rutgers

Cincinnati

Central Florida

Houston

UConn

SMU

South Florida

Memphis

Temple
 
Mountain West
The Mountain West could be a pretty wide open conference this season. Boise State and Fresno State are the most talented teams but both have a few question marks. Boise State has to replace some key defenders and Fresno State has to replace some big time players on offense. Don’t be surprised if you see some surprises in this conference this season as it looks like it could be a lot more than a two-team race. Every team has its question marks but I would say any team in the top three of each division has a chance to win the title.
My sleepers for this conference are San Jose State, San Diego State and Wyoming. I know, homer pick taking the Cowboys, but quarterback Brett Smith is one of the best players in the conference and if the Pokes can put up some numbers on offense they could run a few teams off the field. San Jose State and San Diego State look like they have a chance to make a run. The Spartans are coming off a 10-win season and the Aztecs are coming of a co-MW Championship last season.
Derek Carr should be the Player of the Year for the second-consecutive year, but there are five other quarterbacks in the conference including BSU’s Joe Southwick, SJSU’s David Fales, Utah State’s Chuckie Keeton, Nevada’s Cody Jajardo and UW’s Brett Smith that could all vie for the POY honors.
Mountain: Boise State
West: Fresno State
Winner: Boise State
POY: Derek Carr, Quarterback, Fresno State
Mountain West Predictions
 

Mountain

West

Boise State

Wyoming

Utah State

Air Force

Colorado State

New Mexico

Fresno State

San Jose State

San Diego State

Nevada

UNLV

Hawai’i
 
MAC
The ‘Week night’ conference should again be a very entertaining conference to watch in 2013.  The top of the MAC is pretty solid led by Northern Illinois and their all-everything quarterback, Jordan Lynch.  Northern Illinois will be the favorite to win the West and the conference but with Ball State and Toledo in the mix, NIU is no gimmie.  In the East, there’s a three way battle between Bowling Green, Ohio and Kent State.  Bowling Green returns 18 starters and had one of the best defenses in the nation a year ago.  I see a changing of the guards and a MAC title for the Falcons.
East: Bowling Green
West: Northern Illinois
Winner: Bowling Green
POY: Jordan Lynch, Quarterback, Northern Illinois
MAC Predictions


East

West

Bowling Green

Ohio

Kent State

Buffalo

Miami (Ohio)

UMass

Akron

Northern Illinois

Ball State

Toledo

Central Michigan

Western Michigan

Eastern Michigan


 
Conference USA
Few conferences were hit harder by realignment than C-USA.  Welcoming six new schools, this conference will have a new look in 2013.  Leading the way for C-USA are Tulsa, Rice and East Carolina.  Tulsa won the conference in 2012 and looks to continue their success of the past few seasons.  They’ll have their work cut out for them with Rice in the West, however.  Rice finished last season with five straight victories and return 19 starters from a year ago.  In the East, East Carolina is my pick to win the division but don’t sleep on Marshall.  The Herd could be a surprise team with Rakeem Cato leading the best offense in C-USA.
East: East Carolina
West: Rice
Winner: East Carolina
POY: Rakeem Cato, Quarterback, Marshall
Conference USA Predictions


East

West

East Carolina

Marshall

UAB

Middle Tennessee

Florida Atlantic

Southern Mississippi

Florida International

Rice

Tulsa

UTEP

Tulane

Louisiana Tech

North Texas

Texas-San Antonio

 


 
Sun Belt
The conference realignment bug has hit this conference really hard but the teams left in this conference should all be competitive with each other. The conference crown is going to come down to two teams, Arkansas State and Louisiana-Monroe. I am going with Louisiana-Monroe because of its strength at the quarterback position. Warhawks quarterback Kolton Browning, my pick to share the POY award with Western Kentucky running back Antonio Andrews, should lead them to the conference crown through a pretty good schedule. LA-Monroe gets Western Kentucky and Arkansas State at home. If the Warhawks don’t get too beat up in an opening matchup at Oklahoma they should be able win the conference.
Winner: Louisiana-Monroe
CO-POY: Kolton Browning, Quarterback, LA-Monroe
                  Antonio Andrews, Running Back, Western Kentucky
Sun Belt Predictions

LA-Monroe

Arkansas State

Louisiana

Western Kentucky

Troy

Texas State

South Alabama

Georgia State
 
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