Wednesday, October 10, 2012

AP Top 25
1- Alabama
2- Oregon
3- South Carolina
4- Florida
5- West Virginia
6- Kansas State
7- Notre Dame
8- Ohio State
9- LSU
10- Oregon State
11- USC
12- Florida State
13- Oklahoma
14- Georgia
15- Texas
16- Clemson
17- Stanford
18- Louisville
19- Miss. St.
20- Rutgers
21- Cincinnati
22- Texas A&M
23- Louisiana Tech
24- Boise State
25- Michigan

Looking at the AP Top 25 who do you think are the most overrated/underrated teams?

As I look through the top ten to 15 teams the one that really stands out to me is Oregon State.  Do we really think that there are only nine teams in the nation better than Oregon State?  I think they're a good football team and it's reasonable to have them in the top 25, but ten?  I just can't see that.  The only win they have to hang their hat on is Wisconsin, who, needless to say has been a huge disappointment this season.  After that, what, UCLA?  Arizona?  Their 19-6 blowout over Washington State?  Give me a break.  Unfortunately, they really won't have a true test until November 10th when they go to Stanford, so get used to them hovering around the top ten.

It's difficult to really be underrated when you're sitting at number four in the country, but the Florida Gators have probably out played every other team in the top ten.  They went on the road and beat Texas A&M and Tennessee in back to back weeks- both very hostile environments with teams that can light up the score board, then flat-out out played LSU on Saturday.  The Gators aren't perfect but the way the play defense and their ability to run the ball will give them a chance in every game they play this year. 

Food for thought.
I had a thought this weekend as I watched Auburn continue their downward spiral toward the bottom of the SEC.  Since taking over at Auburn in 2009, Gene Chizik is 31-14 (8-5, 14-0, 8-5, 1-4, respectively) if you include the post season. Not bad in three and a half years, but take away what they did with Cam Newton in 2010 and they're 17-14.  That's not going to cut it in the SEC.  Auburn is off to a 1-4 start this season and are coming off an ugly 24-7 loss, at home, to Arkansas and the chances that Chizik keeps his job seems pretty slim at the moment.  

Where am I going with this?  Bobby Patrino, that's where.  There's no way a coach with his resume will be out of work for more than a year.  Besides, he's got the connections- he was the OC there in 2002.  Patrino is a proven winner (at least on the football field) in the SEC and before his little motorcycle incident, people were talking about this Arkansas team as a potential national title contender.  Plus, it's the SEC.  You think Auburn would care about how it would look to hire this guy if they win ten games next year?  Doubt it.  Patrino would be a 'humbled' and 'changed' man who'd seen the error in his ways, given a second chance.  Do you really think Auburn couldn't sell that to it's fans, who are going to be watching bowl season from their couches this year? 


Jeremy's Top 25
1-(1) Alabama (5-0)
Idle last week.  They're at Missouri (3-3) Saturday.
2-(6) South Carolina (6-0)
We'll see if they can maintain this but after dismantling Georgia, the Gamecocks have to be recognized as a legit contender on the national scene. 

3-(3) Oregon (6-0)
No one does style points better than the Oregon Ducks.  Given how the Pac-12 has looked so far, it's going to be November before we know how good this Ducks team really is.       
4-(7) West Virginia (6-0)
I had my doubts about this team, but they went to Texas and out-played the Longhorns.  They've still got some big hurdles but this team can play with anyone.
5-(10) Florida (5-0)
Coming off a gritty win against LSU, Florida is a team to look out for.
6-(8) Kansas State (5-0)
The Wildcats just keep doing what they do.  Solid, well-coached team.  Big match-up coming up against West Virginia on Oct. 20.
7-(9) Notre Dame (5-0)
This Irish team just keeps on truckin'.  After a month of sputtering, the offense blew up on Miami, scoring 41 points.  It's a tough road ahead but this team looks ready for it.
8-(2) LSU
A tough loss at Florida raises some serious questions about the Tiger offense.  They'll need to rally quick with South Carolina coming to town next week.
9-(3) Florida State (5-1)
The Seminoles dropped a tough game at NC State and have looked less than impressive in back to back weeks.  Loads of talent, but still haven't put it all together.
10-(5) Georgia (5-1)
What once looked like an SEC contender, now looks like a team with a ton of questions to answer. 
11-(12) USC (4-1)
USC, while very talented, has looked very vulnerable at times this season.  They're unconvincing at 4-1 and lost to the only quality team they've faced this season.
12-(16) Oklahoma (3-1)
The Sooners came roaring out of their bye week, rolling a trendy Texas Tech team 41-20.  We'll see if they can keep it going against the Longhorns next week. 
13-(11) Texas (4-1)
The Longhorns lost a tough battle against the most explosive team in the nation.  They'll need to rebound quickly with their annual meeting against the Sooners on Saturday. 
14-(14) Clemson (5-1)
The offense is averaging over 500 yards and 41 points per game, but a dismal defense is holding this team back from making some serious noise.

15-(17) Oregon State (4-0)
See my 'overrated' comments above.  I do like what Mike Riley's got here but even #15 feels a little generous, especially now that Sean Mannion looks to be out for the season.
16-(15) Stanford (4-1)
Maybe they were still not over the loss against Washington last week but it took overtime to beat Arizona.  They better get right quick with a trip to South Bend this weekend. 
17-(24) Mississippi State (5-0)
The Bulldogs took care of business against Kentucky but things are about to get interesting as the second half of their schedule looks pretty daunting. 
18-(19) Louisville (5-0)
Idle last week.  They travel to Pitt on Saturday.
19-(21) Rutgers (5-0)
They're not flashy but Rutgers keeps on rolling.  Should be smooth sailing until a Nov. 17 match-up with Cincinnati.
20-(23) Cincinnati (4-0)
Circle Oct. 16 on the calendar.  A trip to Louisville will have conference title implications. 
21-(NR) Louisiana Tech (5-0)
This team can score points with the best of 'em.  Too bad they don't play defense- they're ranked 109th in scoring defense and giving up 531 yards per game.
22-(NR) Texas A&M (4-1)
After their week one loss to Florida, the Aggies have rattled off four straight wins.  They're on the road this weekend against a dangerous LaTech team.
23-(25) Boise State (4-1)
Boise State looked like the Boise State of old with their 40-14 win over Southern Miss.  The schedule sets up nicely the rest of the way. 
24-(NR) Iowa State (4-1)
They're 4-1 and just went on the road and beat TCU.  Probably won't last with Kansas State coming to town.
25-(NR) Ohio (6-0)
They're undefeated, that's all.

*In the conversation- Michigan, Penn State, TCU, Washington, Northwestern, UNC, Nebraska, Wisconsin, Duke, UCLA, Arizona State
*Dropped- TCU, Washington, Nebraska, Northwestern
*The Buckeye's are ineligible for the post season, so I'm not going to rank them. 



Some major changes this week in the top 25. My top five is pretty different. Bama stays at one because I still think it is the best team in football. South Carolina moves to No. 2 from No. 8 after taking Georgia to the house. Oregon moves to No. 3 mostly by default (you are right, I do not like this team much, but they are a pretty solid team). After a close and great 'W' in Austin, West Virgina moves to my top 5. Still not sure about that defense tough. Florida also makes the top five after a major victory over a falling LSU team. K-State stays at No. 6 because lets face it Kansas is not a great win. Notre Dame moves up to No. 7 after dismantling Miami in Chicago. Ohio State just throttled an overrated Nebraska team but I did not expect them to score 63 points. Oregon State moves to No. 9, another by default. Every team in front of them lost and the are undefeated so I can't keep a team that lost the previous week in front of them. Oklahoma impressed me last week tossing all over the previous No. 1 total defense, so they get my top 10 ranking. Problem with this team is they are about inconsistent as can be.

Eleven through 15 are mostly the previous unbeaten. I expect LSU to keep falling, this offense cannot do anything against conference defenses. The Tigers will lose at least two more games. Florida State drops because of its loss to N.C. State, this is still a top 10 team, but they have to prove it before I move them back up. Texas drops just three spots after falling in a close one to West Virgina. Georgia takes the biggest drop falling 12 spots after laying an egg against South Carolina. They did not show up, but give the Gamecocks credit they took the Georgia offense out of this game.

Sixteen through 20 features three Big East teams. What am I crazy? I guess a little, but the bottom part of this poll is pretty week. Clemson is a tough team that can really move the ball, but it doesn't have a defense. Stanford is still looking to rebound from that loss to Washington, but gets its chance this weekend against the Irish. Louisville, Rutgers and Cincy all look like pretty good teams, but I see these teams losing a couple this season, probably to each other.

My 21-25 are all new because really no one proved enough to me to stay in this. I am not totally sold on these Texas A&M or Louisiana Tech teams but they play each other this weekend so we will see who is ready for this ranking. I like Ohio at 6-0 this is a good team and could keep moving up with a weak MAC schedule. Boise State is there because it looks like it is getting rolling again. Iowa State takes No. 25 because of the big win in Fort Worth snapping TCU 17-game conference winning streak.

Nick's Top 25
1-(1) Alabama (5-0)
Idle last week.  They're at Missouri (3-3) Saturday.

2- (8)-South Carolina (6-0)
I will admit I was not a believer in this team, but I am now. They took Georgia to the house and never looked back on Saturday. They have another tough one this week though with a trip to Death Valley on the slate. We will see the true colors of this team after a tough test this week.

3- (5)-Oregon (6-0)
I guess this team deserves to be there. The Ducks rolled over the Huskies and even though I did predict them to beat up on Wash., I still consider it a good win. I have to be impressed as well because with their game being played late they were able to see all those other big games and not get rattled. I am still not sure about this team with the quality of conference, but that can only hold them back for so long when they dismantle every team they play.

4-(7)-West Virgina (6-0)
Great win for the Mountaineers at Texas last weekend. That game could have gone either way, but Geno and company really pulled out a huge W. They played Texas Tech this weekend who looked down right bad against Oklahoma last week, but look for a tougher game from Tech this week. The 'Eers can't be looking past at tough defensive Tech team to the showdown next week against K-State.

5-(9)-Florida (5-0)
Another team who got a huge win last week. I said in our top-25 picks last week that Mustchamp was looking for that signature win at Florida and he got it. They need to keep rolling however that SEC schedule does not get any easier.

6-(6)-Kansas State (5-0)
I left K-State where they were this week because Kansas is not a good win this season and they struggled to get rolling at first before piling it on. This team looks to be legitimate though and get ready for a Gameday worthy game next weekend.

7-(10)-Notre Dame (5-0)
I am still unsure what to think about this Irish team. I think I heard a thousand times this week they know who they are and they know what they are not. They play great defense and can run the ball, but what happens when that run game can't get rolling? They have to pass and the way they interchange quarterbacks can't be good for either one's confidence. I am ready to see this team against a physical front seven of Stanford this weekend. 

8-(15)-Ohio State (5-0)
The Buckeyes are the class of the B1G, one problem, they cannot make the post season. Tough for the B1G to have one good team and it can't go to the Rose Bowl. This is a good OSU team but we may never know how good because of how bad the rest of the conference is. They showed that putting up 63 on Nebraska last week.

9-(13)-Oregon State (4-0)
I disagree with Jeremy here. I know Sean Mannion is out for a while, but how it effects this Beaver team has yet to be seen. This team has won with defense this season. Mannion is a game manager and that is it. If they lose some bad ones over the next couple weeks we will know, but for now they have earned a solid ranking (mostly because all the other top teams lost this weekend, sorry Beaver fans).

10-(17)-Oklahoma (3-1)
The Sooners may be the most inconsistent team this season. They laid an egg against Kansas State and don't even show up then go out and run the No. 1 defensive team in Texas Tech into the ground? Explain that one to me Bob Stoops. We will know a lot more about this team after this weekends Red River Shootout (Yes, I am still calling it that, let's not change names of 100 year old rivalry's to be PC).

11-(14)-USC (4-1)
Still not quite sold on this USC team. After what looked like a doomed start against Utah they got it rolling and won going away. If this team makes mistakes like that against Oregon they are going to get run over by 50.

12-(4)-LSU (4-1)
I said it last week, that I did not think LSU was a top-five team and it proved it with its performance against Florida. Another huge game this weekend for the Tigers against South Carolina. Could they lose back-to-back?

13-(2)-Florida State (5-1)
Tough one for the 'Noles last weekend. I think apathy is what killed them in this game. I hate to admit it, but that national title talk got to this team and they got lazy. This is still a solid team that can win 11 games, but that loss might have taken them out of the title picture. They need some help to get back in it.

14-(11)-Texas (4-1)
Texas did what it had to do to win that game against West Virgina but came up short. I was surprised that this defense allowed 460-plus yards against the Mountaineers. Texas will rebound and still win 10 this season, but the Red River Shootout this weekend is another big game for the young Horns to get up for. 

15-(3)-Georgia (5-1)
Last week I said that this Georgia team was for real. I guess I was wrong. I thought they could score with anyone, which I still think they can, but they looked unprepared and just down right bad against South Carolina. This team will rebound, but the loss really hurts its SEC East title chances.

16-(16)-Clemson (5-1)
The Tigers stay where they were this week, because any win in the ACC is not great at this point. They missed their chance against FSU and now look like they could crawl back into the ACC title picture. This team has a stellar offense, but the defense cannot get out of its own way.

17-(19)-Stanford (4-1)
A physical front seven has this team in position to make some noise, but a tough game against Notre Dame this weekend could change all that.

18-(18)-Louisville (5-0)
Still have yet to see this team beat anyone so they also stay where they are this week. They have one some close games and don't expect that magic to last all season.

19-(22)-Rutgers (5-0)
This team has a great offense, but can it hang with some of the teams near the top of this poll? No way. It will drop one to either of the other two Big East teams ranked.

20-(NR)-Cincinnati (4-0)
Undefeated gets you a spot in this weeks poll, but just like Rutgers don't expect this to last.

21-(NR)-Texas A&M (4-1)
A&M's only loss is letting one slip away to my No. 5 team in the country. I think this is a good team, but I don't know if it is even the third-best team in Texas. Not sure how long they can hold on to this spot.

22-(NR)-Louisiana Tech (5-0)
Who ever thought I would rank a WAC team in the top-25 this early in the season? But this team has a high-powered offense that has scored 40-plus every game this season. Don't expect that to keep up against Texas A&M this weekend though.

23-(NR)-Ohio (6-0)
I like this Ohio team. Frank Solich has done a great job here. With this team's schedule I see no way it finishes with less than 10 wins. At the beginning of the season people were calling this a BCS buster possibility. I think that is out the window, they would need to be a lot higher ranked right now, but hey anything is possible.

24-(NR)-Boise State (4-1)
The Bronco offense is beginning to show signs of old. They have scored 30 and 40-plus in their last two games. Tough test this week with Mountain West newcomer Fresno State coming to the blue turf.

25-(NR)-Iowa State (4-1)
Great win for Paul Rhoads and the Cyclones over TCU. The Frogs had won 17-consecutive home conference games to that point. Don't expect this ranking to last long with K-State coming to Ames this weekend. 

Not quite there: Penn State, Northwestern, Baylor, Michigan State, Michigan, Duke. 

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