Saturday, November 16, 2013

In depth previews


No. 7 Auburn vs. No. 25 Georgia, 3:30 ET, CBS

Instant Analysis: A couple weeks ago after Georgia had lost nearly its entire roster to injury this game did not look near as compelling, but now the Dawgs have RB Todd Gurley back this one could get interesting. Auburn has been surprisingly solid this season and is looking to crash the BCS party. This game could go a long way to helping the Tigers get there and give them a ton of confidence before an Iron Bowl that could have national title significance once again. That being said the Tigers need to find a way to get past a constantly improving Bulldog roster.

Keys to victory:
Auburn: Auburn is going to need to lean on its third-ranked rushing attack in this game. The Tigers are averaging 320 yards on the ground this season and if they can even get close to that it will go along way in this game. Tiger quarterback Nick Marshall and running back Tre Mason are both having great seasons, with Marshall rushing for more than 750 yards and Mason just surpassing 1,000 yards. These two are going to need to have a great game against Georgia’s defense. If the Tigers can rush for their season average and get a couple big plays through the air they could continue the great season. Auburn’s defense is going to need to force the Georgia offense into quick three-and-outs. It needs to keep Aaron Murray and Todd Gurley off the field as much as possible. The Tigers also need to keep Gurley from his explosive plays and keep him behind the line.

Georgia: The Dawg rushing defense is ranked No. 20 in the country allowing 126 yards per game and they are going to need to lean on it big time in this game. If the Georgia defense can keep Auburn’s rushing attack slowed and off the field as much as possible it will hold the Tigers well below their season average of 320 yards. Offensively, Georgia needs Gurley to have a huge game showing that he is back from that high ankle sprain and ready to carry it again. Murray has been nothing short of stellar this season leading the Dawgs through an injury-plagued year. He is going to need to hit what big play threats he has left down the field for some quick scores to put Auburn behind and force them to throw the ball early.

Prediction: The Georgia rush defense is going to step up in this game and show why it is ranked No. 20 in the country in one of the best rushing leagues, the SEC, in the nation. Murray and Gurley will each have big games with Gurley rushing for more than 100 yards and two scores with a couple big plays mixed in. The Dawgs will get another statement win to show that their three losses are because of an injury-depleted roster. This will be a high-scoring game, but I think the weapons for Georgia will make the big plays when it counts.

Fun Facts: Georgia has won the last two meetings of this game by a combined score of 83-7. This will be the deciding game in this series as it is tied 54-54-8. This will be the fourth top 10 opponent Georgia has played this season.


No. 16 Michigan State @ Nebraska, 3:30 ET, ABC/ESPN2
Instant Analysis: The Spartans are having a great season so far and are on track to make the B1G Championship game with just one major hurdle left, a trip to Lincoln. The Huskers have done nothing short of survive this season in Lincoln and should be happy that still this is one of the toughest places in the country to play.

Keys to victory:

Nebraska: Use that home field advantage as much as possible to get Michigan State’s sometimes-shaky offense off balance. The Huskers are going to need to pressure Connor Cook and for him into mistakes, which has been hard this season as he as only throw three picks. They are also going to need to slow running back Jeremy Langford who has scored 10 touchdowns this season. The Blackshirt (using the term loosely) is going to need to be very opportunistic and capitalize on the smallest Michigan State mistake. The Huskers on offense are going to stuggle to move the ball so what they need to do is a steady dose of Ameer Abdullah who has been a beast this season with more than 1,200 yards and seven scores. The Huskers need their patchwork offensive line to come together.

Michigan State: Do what you have done all season play monster defense and dominate at the point of attack. Nebraska has struggled to run the ball in the last few weeks and its passing game is nonexistent (except on the final play of the game apparently). Michigan State needs to stop Ameer Abdullah or at least not let him beat them on the ground. If it can force either Taylor Martinez or Tommy Armstrong Jr., into throwing all game the Huskers will not get passed the 50. Offensively, just give the Husker defense, which is playing better as of late, a steady diet of Langford who has 10 scores already. Run Langford to open up the big play with Connor Cook tossing the ball down the field.

Prediction: I don’t see this game very close at all as long as Michigan State scores more than 21 points the Huskers don’t have a chance. The Spartans are the No. 1 ranked defense for a reason and beyond Abdullah the Huskers don’t have the fire power to win this one. I think Sparty wins this going away and holding Neb to under 250 yards of total offense.

Fun Facts: Michigan State has never beat Nebraska as the Huskers lead the all-time series 7-0. Since 1970 Nebraska has a nation-leading 429 victories. Michigan State is 5-0 in the B1G for the first time under head coach Mark Dantonio and the third time in school history. This is the 15th time in school history Michigan State has started the season winning eight of its first nine games.





Week 12 Top 25 Picks and Breakdown


#1 Alabama @ Mississippi State, 7:45pm ET, ESPN
Don’t expect a hangover for the Crimson Tide.  Alabama has owned the Bulldogs winning the last five meetings by an average of 24 points a game.
Jeremy’s pick- Alabama, 45-14
Nick’s pick-Bama, 38-14

#2 Florida State vs. Syracuse, 3:30pm ET, ABC
Does the Jamies Winston saga effect how the ‘Noles play in this one? No way Florida State and Winston will run over the Orange. Winston will probably only play the first half of this one with FSU up 35 at the break. Noles will roll in this game.
Nick’s pick-FSU, 52-17
Jeremy’s pick- Florida State, 42-14

#3 Ohio State @ Illinois, 12pm ET, ESPN
A road test for the Buckeyes… if you want to call it that.  Illinois has played Ohio State tough at home with their last six meeting being decided by an average of eight points a game.  Still, the Buckeyes will win big.
Jeremy’s pick- Ohio State, 41-17
Nick’s pick-Ohio State, 56=10

#4 Stanford @ USC, 8pm ET, ABC

Sneaky good game here. USC has improved or is just playing inspired after Lane Kiffin was fired and is looking for a major upset of a Stanford team that is coming off the dismantling of Oregon last Thursday. USC has some playmakers, but I don’t think it will be able to move the ball well enough on the tough Stanford defense. Expect this to be close but Stanford pulls it out.
Jeremy’s pick- Stanford, 23-17
Nick’s pick-Stanford, 28-17

#5 Baylor vs. Texas Tech, 7pm ET, FOX
The bottom has dropped out for Texas Tech and I’m not sure Baylor is the team to regain your mojo.  The Bears have their sights set on a Big 12 title and if they continue to take care of business, potentially, a shot at a BCS Championship.
Jeremy’s pick- Baylor, 47-34
Nick’s pick-Baylor, 48-28

#6 Oregon vs. Utah, 4pm ET, Fox Sports 1
The Ducks need a game to recover after that tough loss to Stanford last week and a game against Utah should do the trick. The Utes have played better as of late, but they cannot win a game on the road especially with Oregon looking to prove that it is still among the nations elite. The Ducks will run all over the Utes and win this going away.
Nick’s pick-Oregon, 48-17
Jeremy’s pick- Oregon, 51-24

#7 Auburn vs. #25 Georgia, 3:30pm ET, CBS
See full breakdown in the In depth Preview.
Jeremy’s pick- Georgia, 45-41
Nick’s pick-Georgia, 45-40

#8 Clemson 55, Georgia Tech 31
Clemson has rebounded well after its bad loss to Florida State at home and keeps on winning. The Tigers are still in line for a BCS berth and are showing that they still mean business. For the record we both picked Clemson.


#9 Missouri, IDLE
Next game, Nov. 23 @ Ole Miss

# 10 South Carolina vs. Florida, 7pm ET, ESPN2
The Gamecocks are still hanging around in the SEC East waiting for Mizzou to slip up again, but as for this week they need to get past a Florida team that is in desperate need of a W. Problem for the Gators its in SC. Gamecocks win this one a little closer than expected, but send the Gators to their sixth loss of the season.
Nick’s pick-South Carolina, 34-20
Jeremy’s pick- South Carolina, 30-17

#11 Texas A&M, IDLE
Next game, Nov. 23 @ LSU

#12 Oklahoma State @ #24 Texas, 3:30pm ET, FOX
Huge game in the Big 12 here, the Longhorns need the win to keep pace with Baylor and the Cowboys need a W to get back in the race. If Texas can run the ball like it has at times this season it could end up running away from the Cowboys. 
Nick's pick-Texas, 37-31
Jeremy's pick-Texas, 37-34

#13 UCLA vs. Washington, Friday, 9pm ET, ESPN2
I’m really intrigued by this game.  Washington was left for dead after three straight losses to Stanford, Oregon and ASU.  After confidence building wins over Cal and Colorado are the Huskies ready to tackle the remaining teams on their schedule?  UCLA had a similar fate against Oregon and Stanford but the Bruins are still fighting for a South title and a shot at Rose Bowl. 
Jeremy’s pick- UCLA, 37-31
Nick's pick-UCLA, 35-34

#14 Fresno State, IDLE
Next game, Nov. 23, vs. New Mexico

#15 Northern Illinois 48, Ball State 27
This game was a lot closer than the score would suggest tied at 27 going into the fourth but, Jordan Lynch and the Huskies ran away from Ball State down the stretch. This was NIU’s last big contest of the season so don’t expect it to just Fresno State unless the Bulldogs slipup along the way.


#16 Michigan State @ Nebraska, 3:30pm ET, ABC
See full breakdown in the in depth preview.
Jeremy’s pick- Michigan State, 24-13
Nick's pick-Michigan State, 38-14

#17 UCF @ Temple, 12pm ET, ESPN3
This is the first ever matchup between these two programs.  Temple is 1-8 while UCF is pushing for a BCS Bowl berth.  The Knights will rock the Owls.
Jeremy’s pick- UCF, 34-13
Nick’s pick-UCF, 48-10

#18 Oklahoma vs. Iowa State, 12pm ET, Fox Sports 1
The Sooners should have no problem shaking off last week’s loss to Baylor with an easy win over Iowa State in Norman.
Nick’s pick-Oklahoma, 42-20
Jeremy’s pick- Oklahoma, 34-17

#19 Arizona State vs. Oregon State, 9:30pm ET, Pac 12 Network
After a six game winning streak, Oregon State is coming off losses to Stanford and USC.  ASU survived a trip to Utah but just barely.  This looks like a trap game for the Sun Devils who travel to UCLA next weekend.  ASU is a game ahead of UCLA but they better not overlook a Beaver team looking to get back on track and ruin a season or two.
Jeremy’s pick- ASU, 41-37
Nick’s pick-Arizona State, 52-50

#20 Louisville vs. Houston, 7pm ET, ESPNU
This game could be a lot closer than it looked at the beginning of the season. Both of these teams have solid offenses so there could be some fireworks in this one. I think Teddy Bridgewater and co., should be able to pull this one out and home and keep their outside chance at an American Conference title open. Watch out for this one to be closer than expected though.
Nick’s pick-Louisville, 38-35
Jeremy’s pick- Louisville, 38-35

#21 LSU, IDLE
Next game, Nov. 23 vs. Texas A&M

#22 Wisconsin vs. Indiana, 12pm ET, ESPN2
I have said already this week that Wisconsin is the most underrated team in the country. Head coach Gary Anderson should be in the running for coach of the year with this squad. The Badgers can run the ball and play defense. Indiana can score points, but against lesser opponents. Wisconsin should have no trouble stopping the Hoosiers in this one.
Nick’s pick-Wisconsin, 41-21
Jeremy’s pick- Wisconsin, 37-24

#23 Miami @ Duke, 3:30pm ET, ESPNU

Miami is still reeling after two straight defeats and it doesn’t get any easier for them with a much-improved Duke team this weekend. The Blue Devils are looking for their first-ever ACC Title game appearance and need this win to get there. The ‘Canes are still without running back Duke Johnson and cannot win without him. Duke pulls a shocker at home in this one.
Jeremy’s pick- Duke, 31-27
Nick’s pick-Duke, 34-31


Best of the Rest

Wyoming @ Boise State, 10:15pm ET, ESPN2
The Cowboy defense has looked painful the last three weeks. Can it finally slow down a team enough to give Brett Smith a chance to win them the game? Boise State is not as good as it has been in the past, but should have no problem moving the ball on Boise State. If the Pokes can move the ball in this game it could make for an interesting one. Wyoming needs Smith to play better than he has the past few weeks and he is too much of a competitor not to. Here is another toss up game in my opinion so my fandom is picking this one. The Pokes have never beat the Broncos and on the disgusting Blue Turf it will be difficult, but I think they have chance.
Nick’s pick-Wyoming, 48-45
Jeremy’s pick- Boise State, 40-34

Michigan @ Northwestern, 3:30pm ET, BTN
Both team’s seasons have unraveled over the past few weeks, with Northwestern having lost five in a row, while Michigan has dropped three of four.  It’s surprising that these teams are battling to stay out of the cellar of the Legends Division.
Jeremy’s pick- Michigan, 37-34
Nick’s pick-Michigan, 31-30

TCU @ Kansas State, 3:30pm ET
TCU badly needs a win to save its season and Kansas State is looking to solidify a rebound season. Should be an entertaining game in the little apple.
Nick’s pick-Kansas State, 31-28
Jeremy’s pick- Kansas State, 24-23


Cal @ Colorado, 5:30pm ET, Pac12
Someone will get their first Pac 12 win of the season on Saturday.  So, they’ve got that going for them.  Both defenses are giving up 40+ points a game and each is scoring in the mid 20’s.  I guess the Buffs get the edge at home?
Jeremy’s pick- Colorado, 41-34
Nick’s pick-Colorado, 38-24

Vanderbilt vs. Kentucky, 12:21pm ET, Game Plan/ESPN3
Vandy has improved the past few games and is looking to get bowl eligible with a win over a struggling Kentucky team.
Nick’s pick-Vandy, 34-24
Jeremy’s pick- Vandy, 37-17

Virginia Tech vs. Maryland, 12:30pm ET, Game Plan/ESPN3
Virginia Tech needs this win to stay alive in the ACC Coastal and for Maryland what could have been after that 5-0 start.
Nick’s pick-Virginia Tech, 28-17
Jeremy’s pick- VaTech, 24-7

CSU @ New Mexico, 7pm ET
I know no one would care about this outside the Mountain West, but Colorado State is looking to become bowl eligible for the first time since 2008 and in Jim McElwain’s second season.
Nick’s pick-CSU, 28-21
Jeremy’s pick- New Mexico, 31-27

Wednesday, November 13, 2013

Week 12 Top 25

Rank
BCS
AP
Jeremy
Nick
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
11
12
13
14
15
16
17
18
19
20
21
22
23
24
25
Alabama (9-0)
Florida State (9-0)
Ohio State (9-0)
Stanford (8-1)
Baylor (8-0)
Oregon (8-1)
Auburn (9-1)
Clemson (8-1)
Missouri (9-1)
South Carolina (7-2)
Texas A&M (8-2)
Oklahoma State (8-1)
UCLA (7-2)
Fresno State (9-0) Northern Illinois (9-0)
Michigan State (8-1)
UCF (8-1)
Oklahoma (7-2)
Arizona State (7-2)
Louisville (8-1)
LSU (7-3)
Wisconsin (7-2)
Miami (7-2)
Texas (7-2)
Georgia (6-3
Alabama
Florida State
Ohio State
Baylor
Stanford
Oregon
Auburn
Clemson
Missouri
Texas A&M
South Carolina
Oklahoma State
UCLA
Michigan State
UCF
Fresno State
Wisconsin
LSU
Louisville
Northern Illinois
Arizona State
Oklahoma
Texas
Miami
Georgia
Florida State (1)
Alabama (2)
Stanford (4)
Baylor (7)
Ohio State (5)
Oregon (3)
Auburn (6)
Clemson (8)
Missouri (9)
South Carolina (11)
Oklahoma State (14)
Texas A&M (13)
Michigan State (17)
UCLA (15)
UCF (18)
Wisconsin (23)
Arizona State (20)
Fresno State (19)
Louisville (21)
NIU (22)
LSU (12)
Texas (NR)
Oklahoma (10)
Miami (16)
Minnesota (NR)
Alabama (1)
Florida State (2)
Stanford (5)
Ohio State (4)
Baylor (6)
Auburn (7)
Oregon (3)
Clemson (8)
Missouri (9)
Oklahoma State (12)
South Carolina (13)
Texas A&M (14)
UCLA (15)
Michigan State (16)
Fresno State (17)
UCF (18)
Wisconsin (22)
LSU (11)
Louisville (20)
Northern Illinois (21)
Arizona State (NR)
Oklahoma (10)
Texas (NR)
Minnesota (NR)
Duke (NR)




Jeremy’s Top 25

1- Florida State (1)
2- Alabama (2)
3- Stanford (4)
4- Baylor (7)
5- Ohio State (5)

Numbers 1, 2 and 5 stay the same this week.  I realize Alabama just beat up LSU pretty good and they may very well be the best team in college football but at the end of the day I like FSU.  If you compare their two biggest wins, how do Alabama’s wins over LSU and A&M stack up against Florida State’s wins over Clemson and Miami?  I’ve moved Stanford to No. 3 after they took Oregon apart.  The Ducks made a run at the end but for 55 minutes, Stanford was absolutely dominant.  Baylor and Ohio State check in at 4 and 5, respectively.  I realize they’re two undefeated teams behind and one loss Stanford, I just don’t know how much I buy Baylor or Ohio State.


6- Oregon (3)
7- Auburn (6)
8- Clemson (8)
9- Missouri (9)
10- South Carolina (11)

Ask and you shall receive.  The question about the Ducks all season is how they’ll stack up against a physical, smash-mouth football team and Thursday we got our answer.  The Ducks got de-feathered.  I still think this is a solid team and they still have a lot to play for.  Auburn moves up to No. 7.  They might be the best of the one loss teams and will have a major role in how the rest of the college football season plays out when they host Alabama on Nov. 30th.  Clemson and Missouri remain No’s 8 and 9.  South Carolina moves into the top 10.  The Gamecocks are still alive in the SEC East and will be big fans of Ole Miss and Texas A&M the next few weeks. 

11- Oklahoma State (14)
12- Texas A&M (13)
13- Michigan State (17)
14- UCLA (15)
15- UCF (18)

Oklahoma State moves up from 14 last week to 11 this week after taking care of Kansas last week.  The Cowboys get Texas this weekend in a game that will have major implications on how the Big 12 shakes out.  A&M moves up a spot to No. 12.  The Aggies get a bye week before a matchup with an LSU team looking to rebound.  Michigan State has quietly become, perhaps the best team in the B1G.  There’s a good chance they’ll represent the Legends in the B1G Championship and I like this team against Ohio State.  UCLA is coming off a road win over Arizona and host a Washington on the rise.  I’m still not too sure about UCLA.  They control their own fate in the South and we’ll see if they’ve got the stones to handle their remaining schedule.  UCF continues to win and has now taken down the two biggest tests on their schedule having just taken down Houston.  The Knights are in the drives seat in the American and still in it for BCS birth.

16- Wisconsin (23)
17- Arizona State (20)
18- Fresno State (19)
19- Louisville (21)
20- NIU (22)

Wisconsin is another B1G team I’ve got moving up as they took out a solid BYU squad over the weekend.  ASU is up a spot after winning on the road against a Utah team that’s a bear at home.  The Sun Devils got the win but I’m skeptical.  We’ll see if they can keep rolling the rest of the way.  Fresno, Louisville and NIU, I kind of just… meh.  They’re winning but do we really care?  The computers have Fresno and NIU a lot higher than I do but I don’t think either team belongs in a BCS game.  Louisville has been winning but they’ve looked pretty unimpressive doing it the past few weeks. 

21- LSU (12)
22- Texas (NR)
23- Oklahoma (10)
24- Miami (16)
25- Minnesota (NR)

Here is where win/loss record means something.  I would take most of my 21-25 to crush my 16-20 head to head but the records are what they are.  LSU is coming off a bad loss to Alabama.  The Tigers looked the part in the first half but as the game wore on it became pretty clear that LSU isn’t on the same level as the Tide this year.  Texas, despite their near disaster in Morgantown over the weekend has put together a six game winning streak and will hang it all on the line the next three weeks with a chance to win the conference.  I really considered dropping Oklahoma and Miami completely out of my rankings.  These teams have been really exposed the past few weeks.  Miami is coming off back-to-back beat downs, looking overmatched against the Seminoles and beat up and disinterested against Virginia Tech.  Oklahoma on the other hand has looked below average in what’s turned out to be their two biggest games of the season- Texas and Baylor.  “Big Game” Bob Stoops laid another egg last Thursday.  I put Minnesota at No. 25 this week.  There were a few other teams I was considering but what the Gophers have done so far is pretty impressive and I think it deserves some recognition. 

Out-
Notre Dame (24)
Texas Tech (25)
Having watched Notre Dame in person two weeks ago against Navy, I came away pretty unimpressed and thought they might struggle against a salty Pitt team.  This Notre Dame team is really just okay and the loss to Pitt just makes that more obvious.  This Irish squad was never a BCS caliber team. 

Texas Tech, who just a few weeks ago were all the way up in the top ten, has come crashing back down to earth.  The defense is a mess and their freshman quarterbacks are playing like you’d expect freshman quarterbacks to play.  I think the future is bright in Lubbock but I don’t think the growing pains are over just yet. 

On the Radar-
Georgia (6-3), USC (7-3), Nebraska (7-2), Washington (6-3)
Georgia is getting healthy but they’ve got a long way to battle back.  If you could look at USC in a vacuum and forget all the Lane Kiffin nonsense and the sanctions, this is actually a decent football team.  Not great but solid and the reality is, they’ve got a shot at the South.  Nebraska… eh.  7-2 is 7-2.  Washington has gotten a break in the schedule with Cal and Colorado in Seattle.  They better hope they’ve worked the kinks out because their three remaining games are at UCLA and Oregon State and home for the Apple Cup against Washington State. 

Conference Breakdown
SEC (6) - Alabama, Auburn, Missouri, South Carolina, Texas A&M, LSU
Pac-12 (4) - Oregon, Stanford, UCLA, Arizona State
Big 12 (4) - Baylor, Oklahoma State, Texas, Oklahoma
B1G (4) - Ohio State, Michigan State, Wisconsin, Minnesota
ACC (3) - Florida State, Clemson, Miami
AAC (2) - UCF, Louisville
MWC (1) - Fresno State
MAC (1) – NIU

Nick’s Top 25 Breakdown

1-5
Alabama
Florida State
Stanford
Ohio State
Baylor
I agree with Jeremy that Florida State has probably the most impressive top 10 wins this season, but I cannot put Alabama No. 2. Florida State has been unreal this season and is dominating competition even top 10 competition. I have to ride the fence on this and make it a 1A and 1B. Coming in third is Stanford and I know there has been a lot of push back why should a one loss jump two undefeateds? Here is the answer…they man handled Oregon and plays a much tougher schedule to date. Now that’s not to say Ohio State or Baylor wont jump the Cardinal by seasons end, but for now that’s the order. Ohio State will not really have a chance to prove how good it is tell the Rose Bowl, but Baylor has a chance over the next three weeks.

6-10
Auburn
Oregon
Clemson
Missouri
Oklahoma State
I am not sure what to think about Auburn, I don’t really know if it is the sixth-best team in the country but they way the Tigers are playing they disserve the credit. This is big weekend to see where they really are against a Georgia team that needs another statement win. Oregon only drops because of its loss to Stanford, and I know I am an Oregon hater but this is still one of the top 10 teams in the country. Clemson keeps rolling on and is helping that Florida State strength of schedule. Missouri is still in control of the SEC East and should be able to wrap the division next week. I moved Oklahoma State into the top 10 for this week but that could change quickly with a big date in Austin this week.

11-15
South Carolina
Texas A&M
UCLA
Michigan State
Fresno State
South Carolina stays outside the top 10 because I am not sold on the Gamecocks still and I am not sure if I will be this season. Texas A&M is a one man show, but that one man in Johnny Manziel is having a great season. UCLA is having a great season leading the Pac 12 South and has this week off. Michigan State has been under the radar, but is quietly making a great season coming out of the B1G. Fresno State came away with an easy win over Wyoming last week and that was its stiffest test left on the schedule.

16-20
UCF
Wisconsin
LSU
Louisville
Northern Illinois
UCF is having a great season after its upset of Louisville and remains in line for a BCS berth. I think Wisconsin is the most underrated team in the country, the Badgers can run the ball on anyone and can play the defense to beat lots of teams. LSU drops after getting run over by Alabama in the second half last week. LSU will be fine but with three losses it hard to keep them in the top 15. Louisville still has a not won me over after a home loss to UCF but still has an outside shot at a BCS berth. Northern Illinois is a good team, but has not played anyone yet and will not the rest of the season. The Huskies maybe on the outside looking in of the BCS this year.

21-25
Arizona State
Oklahoma
Texas
Minnesota
Duke
My 21-25 has four new teams led by Arizona State that is leading the Pac-12 South at 5-1. Oklahoma looked bad against Baylor on Thursday and I am not sure if that was Baylor really good or OU really bad. Texas is creeping back into the national scene and has a major showdown this weekend that could go a long way to deciding the Big 12. Minnesota is having a great season and has the chance to win 10 games. The Gophers have solid wins against some of the B1G elite. Some people may call me on this, but Duke has slowly been creeping into the national scene and has a chance to win the ACC Costal, with a big game against Miami this weekend.









Tuesday, November 12, 2013

Week 11 Recap with Winners and Losers


#1 Alabama 38, #13 LSU 17
LSU gave Alabama everything they had in the first half but as the game wore on it became clear that Alabama was simply a better team and deserving of their No. 1 ranking.
Jeremy’s pick- Alabama, 27-20
Nick’s pick- Alabama, 31-21

#2 FSU 59, Wake Forest 3
Star quarterback Jameis Winston and the offense sputtered a little against Wake, but the Seminoles defense picked up the slack, stuffing the Deacons forcing seven turnovers and scoring two touchdowns of their own. 
Jeremy’s pick- FSU, 44-17
Nick’s pick- FSU, 48-10

#3 Oregon 20, #5 Stanford 26
Stanford grounded the Ducks high-powered attack and completely dominated Oregon for 55 minutes.  The Ducks made a late rally but for the second straight year had their BCS Title hopes shattered by the Cardinal.
Jeremy’s pick- Oregon, 27-17
Nick’s pick- Oregon, 31-28

#4 Ohio State, IDLE
Next game, 11/16 @ Illinois

#6 Baylor 41, #10 Oklahoma 12
Surely Oklahoma will take care of business, restore order in the Big 12 and put Baylor back in their place.  Or not. 
Jeremy’s pick- Oklahoma, 37-34
Nick’s pick- Oklahoma, 45-44

#7 Clemson, IDLE
Next game, 11/14 (Thursday) vs. Georgia Tech

#8 Missouri 48, Kentucky 17
Everyone else in the SEC treats Kentucky this way, why not Missouri?  The Tigers took another step closer to a birth in the SEC Championship with this win.
Jeremy’s pick- Missouri, 35-20
Jeremy’s pick- Missouri, 41-28

#9 Auburn 55, Tennessee 23
I had to talk myself out of taking Tennessee… Whew!  Auburn continues to get better and better and their annual showdown with Alabama in the Iron Bowl is gaining steam.
Jeremy’s pick- Auburn, 34-31
Nick’s pick- Auburn, 38-31

#11 Miami 24, Virginia Tech 42
Miami was either going to shake off last week’s loss to Florida State and make a statement against VaTech or implode.  They imploded.  In a rainy, messy game Virginia Tech took whatever was left of the Hurricanes and crushed it. 
Jeremy’s pick- Virginia Tech, 20-17
Nick’s pick- Miami, 23-21

#12 South Carolina, IDLE
Next game, 11/16 vs. Florida


#14 Oklahoma State 42, Kansas 6
I think I can see the KU students lining up for basketball tickets. 
Jeremy’s pick- Ok St- 52-14
Nick’s pick- Oklahoma State, 63-20

#15 Texas A&M 51, Mississippi State 41
It what might have been his last game in College Station, Johnny Manziel left a lasting impression with 446 passing yards and five TD’s. 
Jeremy’s pick- TAMU, 48-27
Nick’s pick- TAMU, 51-17

#16 Fresno State 48, Wyoming 10
Well, after getting rid of their D coordinator two weeks ago after back-to-back 50+ point games, the Pokes held Fresno to 48.  Too bad it was the offense that sputtered.  The Pokes had been averaging 36.5 points per game but were held to 10 points and less than 300 yards of offense by Fresno.
Jeremy’s pick- Fresno State, 45-41
Nick’s pick- Fresno State, 52-30

#17 Michigan State, IDLE
Next game, 11/16 @ Nebraska

#18 Northern Illinois, IDLE
Next game, 11/13 (Wednesday) vs. Ball State

#19 UCLA 31, Arizona 26
Arizona can be a tough place to go in a get a win.  Credit UCLA for taking care of business and keeping ASU within striking distance. 
Jeremy’s pick- UCLA, 44-31
Nick’s pick- UCLA, 45-21

#20 Louisville 31, UCONN 10
31 points against UCONN?  Really Louisville?  Really?
Jeremy’s pick- Louisville, 41-10
Nick’s pick- Louisville, 48-7

#21 UCF 19, Houston 14
A surprising defensive battle between two solid offensive teams.  With the win, UCF takes sole possession of the American and a BCS Bowl is within their reach.
Jeremy’s pick- UCF, 38-34
Nick’s pick- UCF, 40-31

#22 Arizona State 20, Utah 19
ASU survives a trip to face a Utah team that plays on a whole other level at home. 
Jeremy’s pick- Utah, 31-30
Nick’s pick- Arizona State, 35-30

#23 Notre Dame 21, Pitt 28
I wasn’t surprised to see Notre Dame struggle with a Pitt team that always gives the Irish a game.  I was surprised that Notre Dame couldn’t hold off Pitt down the stretch.  Whatever BCS dreams the Irish had just went up in smoke.
Jeremy’s pick- Notre Dame, 31-24
Nick’s pick- Notre Dame, 34-31

#24 Wisconsin 27, BYU 17
The Badgers take care of a pesky BYU team as James White and Melvin Gordon combine for 233 rushing yards. 
Jeremy’s pick- Wisconsin, 34-24
Nick’s pick- Wisconsin, 38-20

#25 Texas Tech 26, Kansas State 49
What was once a dream first season in Lubbock for Kliff Kingsbury has been turned on its head as the former top ten team has lost three straight and is now out of the ranking completely. 
Jeremy’s pick- Kansas State, 31-27
Nick’s pick- Texas Tech, 42-28


The Score-
Jeremy- 13/17
Nick- 12/17


Week 11 Winners
Florida State
The Seminoles rolled to a 59-3 beat down on the road at Wake Forest, a place they’ve struggled to win in recent seasons, in a game that saw their defense force seven turnovers and score 14 points.  More importantly however, was the loss Oregon suffered at Stanford.  If both FSU and Oregon won out, the Seminoles would have been on the outside looking in in the BCS Championship race.  The Ducks loss clears the way for the ‘Noles as long as they take care of business the rest of the way.

Duke
Last week Duke became bowl eligible for the second year in a row, something that has never happened for the Blue Devils.  On Saturday, Duke collected their seventh win of the season and improved to 3-2 in conference play.  This is important because with Miami’s loss over the weekend to Virginia Tech, Duke, who beat VaTech a few weeks ago, now has a clear shot at winning the ACC Coastal.  Georgia Tech is currently in first place in the division and has a win over Duke but the Yellow Jackets travel to Clemson this weekend and a loss would put control of the division in Duke’s hands.  The Blue Devil fans were calling on FSU after the win over NC State.  They might get their shot.

Baylor
The Bears have been in the national conversation and have gained a little bit more momentum each week but after an impressive win over Oklahoma over the weekend, Baylor now finds itself in the thick of the BCS Championship race.  They still need a break or two from the teams ahead of them (Alabama, FSU and Ohio State) and they have road games at Oklahoma State and TCU before their season finale against Texas but this win was a statement from the Bears that the Big 12 goes through Waco.

UCF
UCF has quietly put together a 7-1 record and took control of the AAC over the weekend with their win over Houston.  The Knights only loss is a three point loss against South Carolina and they have solid road wins over Penn State and Louisville.  With four games left, UCF is in the BCS mix. 

Texas
We have already covered the big winners from the weekend so how about some abstract ones. The Longhorns got some help toward a Big 12 championship with the loss of OU on Thursday night. I know Baylor and Texas meet up and control their own destinies for the championship, but the way Baylor beat down the Sooners have to make the Longhorns feel like they can beat Baylor the way they beat the Sooners.

Thursday Night Football
Can anyone remember a bigger Thursday night of action? This was huge it reminded me of the day when Virginia Tech was the only national power that wanted to play on Thursday night. I know one of the games ended up being a blowout, but the other was dominated for 50 minutes and got interesting in the end. I just love when there are big matchups on Thursday nights. Let’s see some more of these conference commissioners.


Losers
The Pac-12
My name is Jeremy and I am a Pac-12 hater.  Okay, that might be a little extreme but for a conference that continually screams for respect and likens itself to the SEC, the Pac-12 suffered a pretty major loss on Thursday night.  The conferences only shot at a BCS contender went down in flames and looked pretty bad in the process.  Forget the last five minutes of the game; the Ducks were completely grounded against a physical, aggressive Stanford team that ran the ball right down Oregon’s throat and stuffed Mariota and the Oregon offense.  Now, the favorite to win the conference (Stanford) has a loss to a Utah team that will likely be staying home for bowl season.  The favorites in the South are UCLA, who got ripped by Stanford and Oregon, ASU, who snuck out of Utah by the skin of their teeth, needed some officiating help to beat Wisconsin and lost to a very average Notre Dame team.  Oh, and USC.

There are some good teams in this conference, no doubt, but if they want the respect they keep clamoring for they need to put a team in the BCS Championship game.  Until then, shut up and play football.

Oregon
The nation has been wrapped up in Oregon love all season.  No one looks the part more than the Ducks.  They play an exciting brand of football, they blow out most of their opponents, they’re flashy and they create a lot of great hype.  But, at the end of the day physical will always beat finesse and until the Ducks can physically dominate teams they’ll never register in the eyes of college football the way the teams that play the part do.  For a team that’s been shoved down the nation’s throat as the top contender, the Ducks were exposed against a bigger, stronger, more physical football team. 

Oregon’s season is certainly not over and a Rose Bowl birth is still attainable with some help.  However, any shot at a BCS Championship died on Thursday and given what Stanford did to the Ducks, I’m not sure we would want to witness what Alabama would have done to them.

Ohio State
Some of you might be questioning this because an undefeated lost in front of the Bucks, but hear me out. Even though Oregon lost and took one more unleapable hurdle out of the way for a path to the NC title game, the Buckeyes are still getting to no respect from the humans or computers in the BCS formula. Ohio State also now has to worry about Baylor, because if it goes undefeated I think will jump the Buckeyes for a national title appearance. Think about this Ohio State could be on a 25-game winning streak and still get shut out of the national title game. Here is a hint for you next year when the humans are picking if you are one of the four best teams in the country Ohio State. Try scheduling someone beside directional Michigan’s for your first four games.

Oklahoma
Big Game Bob no more in Norman. How many of these big hyped games have Stoops and the Sooners won in recent years? This team seems to be fine taking down the bottom half of the Big 12, but when it comes to the big games that have conference title implications the Sooners are no where to be found. The Sooner offense looked woeful on Thursday night and its highly touted defense was gashed by a quick Baylor offense.


Wyoming
Hey, Nick and I are both Wyoming boys so it’s relevant to us.  I didn’t think they had a great shot at Fresno but the offense is explosive and in Laramie, you never know.  Fresno snuffed that out and with it, any real shot at a bowl game in Wyoming.  The Pokes are now 4-5 with remaining games at Boise, home against Hawaii and at Utah State.  I’m not sure I see two wins there for this team. 

I have to echo Jeremy a little bit here and not to beat a dead horse, but this Wyoming defense is about as bad as it gets. It has allowed 151 points in the last three games. I will give it some what of a pass on the last two games as Fresno State and San Jose State have great offenses, but it allowed 50-plus points to rival Colorado State, which quickly erased the four-straight Boarder War wins. Back to the Fresno State game Wyoming came out gang busters to a 10 point advantage, but when its offense was slowed early in the second quarter, no adjustments were made and it did not score again. Enough about my woe’s as a Wyoming fan and finally, no to all the UW fans that are calling for Dave Christensen’s job. I understand the frustrations, but the talent level has greatly increased over the past five years, Christensen just needs to figure out how to translate that into wins. Player development, player development, player development.