#1 Alabama (9-0) vs. #15 Texas A&M (7-2), 3:30pm ET, CBS
Another great matchup, brought to us by the SEC. Alabama is going to have to get over their win over LSU in a hurry. They're about to welcome in an A&M team that can score points in bunches and has one of the most dynamic playmakers in the country in quarterback Johnny Manziel. Manziel has 31 total touchdowns on the season and is averaging over 380 total yards per game. That said, it's been a different story against the other top SEC opponents Florida and LSU where Manziel has had his share of struggles. Expect a close one, but the 'Tide get it done.
-Jeremy- Alabama, 34-28
-Nick-'Bama, 24-20
#2 Kansas State (9-0) @ TCU (6-3), 7pm ET, FOX
I think this game comes down to one factor, does Collin Kline play or not. If Kline plays and performs at a high level like he has all season this could be a blowout. I noticed Jeremy put K-State in his upset alert and I think that is a smart call. Amon G. Carter is a tough place to play, especially since head coach Gary Patterson is 58-9 in his career at home. That being said, the Wildcats are averaging 44 points and allowing just 18 per game, and with a TCU team that has been so up and down on offense this season I do not think the Frogs will be able to move the ball well enough to win. I think that Kansas State should be able to handle this one on the road and keep its No. 2 spot in the BCS. If this team stays unbeaten I think it meets 'Bama in the title game.
-Nick-K-State, 38-21
-Jeremy- K-State, 35-31
#3 Oregon (9-0) @ Cal (3-7), 10:30pm ET, ESPN/WatchESPN
This one doesn't look good for Cal. They might be without starting quarterback Zach Maynard and Oregon is coming off a record setting performance against USC last week. The Cal's defense is ranked 64th in points allowed and 69th in rushing yards allowed which could be trouble with a Ducks offense that's putting up 341 rushing yards per game.. The Ducks should have no trouble running away with this one... get it? Running? Anyway, Quack-attack gets it done.
-Jeremy- Oregon, 52-21
-Nick-Oregon, 63-24
#4 Notre Dame (9-0) @ Boston College (2-7), 8pm ET, ABC
The Irish are looking for a rebound game and this is a great matchup to get back on track. The Eagles are 122nd in the country in rushing yards and against an outstanding Irish defense I do not see how they can move the ball. The Irish should be able to run away with this game.
-Nick-Irish, 31-10
-Jeremy- Notre Dame, 34-6
#5 Georgia (8-1) @ Auburn (2-7), 7pm ET, ESPN2/WatchESPN
The good news for Auburn is that Georgia has struggled a bit on the road this season. The bad news for Auburn. Well, they're Auburn. With a birth in the SEC Championship on the line, expect Georgia to put this game away early.
-Jeremy- Georgia, 38-17
-Nick-Georiga, 31-10
#6 Florida vs. LA-Lafayette, 12:21pm ET, SEC Network/ESPN3
Interesting to see a team step out of conference play the final two weeks of the season, but Florida is finished with SEC play and will host Lafayette and then travel to Florida State for its final two games. Not really going to spend any time on this the Gators should have an easy time with the Ragin' Cajuns.
-Nick-Florida, 41-17
-Jeremy- Florida, 30-13
#7 LSU vs. #21 Miss. St., 7pm ET, ESPN/WatchESPN
This night game in Death Valley will turn out differently than last weekend's night game in Death Valley. LSU played, arguably it's best game of the season and found a quarterback in Zach Mettenberger. Mississippi State has lost two in a row and a road game at LSU is not the place to get back on track.
-Jeremy- LSU, 24-10
-Nick- LSU 31-17
#8 South Carolina vs. Arkansas, 12pm ET, CBS
At the beginning of the season this game was built to have some major SEC implications now it is just another game for the Gamecocks to roll through in the SEC. Connar Shaw should be able to have his way in this game and pick apart a poor Arkansas defense. South Carolina is still in line for a possible BCS at-large berth and needs to keep making some statement wins.
-Nick-South Carolina, 45-10
-Jeremy- South Carolina, 37-21
#9 Louisville @ Syracuse, 12pm ET, ABC/ESPN3
Louisville has been living on the edge for much of the season, but are coming off one of their most decisive wins of the season last week. Syracuse has been handled by the top teams on their schedule and it will be more of the same this week.
-Jeremy- Louisville, 31-20
-Nick-Louisville, 31-13
#10 Florida State- 26, Virginia Tech- 22, Thursday
The Seminoles take a good shot from the Hokies and survive a tough November road game.
#11 Oregon State @ #14 Stanford, 3pm ET, FOX
The winner of this matchup will have an opportunity to play for the Pac-12 North title against Oregon later this month. Both teams play solid defense and both have had their own quarterback issues. The Cardinal offense got a jump-start last week with freshman quarterback Kevin Hogan, but he'll have his hands full against this Beaver defense. The matchup I'm looking at though, Oregon States passing attack that's averaging 306 per game against a Stanford pass defense that's ranked 104th in the nation. OSU pulls out a close one on the road. Bring on the Ducks!
-Jeremy- Oregon State, 28-24
I have to disagree on this one. Stanford's defense will play an inspired game and hold that OSU passing attack down. This is going to be a defensive battle, but like Jeremy said it comes down to quarterback play. I know it was against Colorado last week but I like the way Hogan stepped in and made big plays in that game. I like Stanford to win a close one here and gain some momentum before heading to Eugene next weekend for a major showdown with the Ducks.
-Nick-Stanford, 20-17
#12 Oklahoma vs. Baylor, 3:30pm ET
Oklahoma is looking for revenge after RGIII and the Bears beat the Sooners for the first time in school history last season. I think the Oklahoma should have a pretty easy time with this because Baylor has one of the worst defenses in the country. The only wrinkle here could be Baylor can score like crazy and if this game gets to be a shootout it could be interesting. Still the Sooners won't let the Bears score a ton of points since OU has the 17th best scoring defense in the country. Oklahoma should roll in this game at Norman.
-Nick-Oklahoma, 42-21
-Jeremy- Oklahoma, 45-28
#13 Clemson vs. Maryland, 3:30pm ET, ESPNU/WatchESPN
Maryland has a solid defense, but there's not way they can stay in this one. At home the Tigers will run the Terps and their backup linebacker/new starting quarterback out of town.
-Jeremy- Clemson, 44-21
-Nick-Clemson, 38-14
#16 Nebraska vs. Penn State, 3:30pm ET, ABC/ESPN2
In third down I put Nebraska on upset alert because I am not sure if another coach in the country has done a better job pulling his team through adversity like Bill O'Brien has. Penn State has been playing excellent defense as of late allowing just 17 points per game which is 14th in the country. See our third down for a little more on this but I still say it comes down to quarterback play and Matt McGloin is a much better quarterback than Taylor Martinez. Penn State goes to Lincoln and pulls off a shocker.
-Nick-Penn State, 31-30
-Jeremy- Nebraska, 24-23
#17 Texas (7-2) vs. Iowa State (5-4), 12pm ET, Longhorn Network
Texas has won three straight and will be glad to back in Austin after back to back road games. Iowa State will give the Longhorns a game but I don't think they've got what it takes to pull out a win.
-Jeremy- Texas, 31-24
-Nick-Texas, 38-24
#18 UCLA @ Washington State, 10:30pm ET, ESPN2/WatchESPN
What a horrible debut season it has been for Mike Leach in Pullman. On the other side Jim Mora and his Bruins have a chance to win the Pac-12 South. UCLA is coming off a huge blowout over Arizona last weekend and is looking to keep playing at a high level. They should be able to run over Washington State easily in Pullman.
-Nick-UCLA, 38-17
-Jeremy- UCLA, 44-21
#19 USC (6-3) vs. Arizona State, 3pm ET, Pac-12 Network
ASU has lost three straight and one would think a game against USC would mean a fourth straight loss. But, USC has dropped their last two and have been pretty mediocre on the road this season. The Trojans need to stop the tail-spin if they want to stay in the hunt in the Pac-12 South. SC has given up 101 points and 1,318 yards the past two games. Do they get it figured out this week?
-Jeremy- Arizona State, 37-31
I know the Pac-12 has been up and down all season but I think USC gets back on track this week. I think Marquise Lee and Matt Barkley will be able to torch the ASU defense.
-Nick-USC, 38-27
#20 Louisiana Tech @ Texas State, 7pm ET, Longhorn Network
Louisiana Tech can score with anyone and Texas State is improving but still not ready to play with the big boys yet.
-Nick-Louisiana Tech, 56-35
-Jeremy- LaTech, 54-27
#22 Texas Tech (6-3) vs. Kansas (1-8), 12pm ET
Nothing turns around a two game losing streak like a game against the Jayhawks.
-Jeremy- TTech, 41-17
-Nick-Red Raiders, 52-10
#23 Rutgers vs. Army, 12pn ET, ESPNU/WatchESPN
After Kent State ended Rutgers BCS bowl game hopes, the Scarlet Knights should be able to get back on track against an up and down Army team. Gary Nova and the sixth-best scoring defense (14.3 ppg) should be able to lead the RU past Army.
-Nick-Rutgers, 28-10
-Jeremy- Rutgers, 24-13
#24 Northwestern (7-2) @ Michigan (6-3), 12pm ET, ESPN/ESPN 3D
Northwestern can stay alive in the race for the B1G with a win over Michigan. Michigan has been up and down this season, but they are undefeated at home in The Big House.
-Jeremy- Michigan, 30-28
I have to disagree once again. I know Michigan is undefeated at home, but I am still not sold on this Michigan team. I think even if Denard Robinson plays Northwestern should be able to get it done on the road. I like the way this team has played and has lost some close ones on the road and is ready for a breakout.
-Nick-Northwestern, 35-31
#25 Toledo- 27, Ball State- 34, Tuesday
Toledo's top 25 home was very short lived after a loss to Ball State on Tuesday. Don't count out the MAC this season though, tough conference with some good teams.
Friday, November 9, 2012
Thursday, November 8, 2012
3rd Down: GOTW, Upset Alert and more...
Game of the Week
#1 Alabama vs. #15 Texas A&M-
Alabama is coming off a huge, emotional victory at Death Valley and will host a Aggie team that should be coming in with a ton of confidence coming off a good win at Mississippi State last week. How 'Bama is able to rebound and put last week behind them will go a long way in determining what goes down in this game. If they can bounce back and be the Alabama team we expect to see, then I think they will be able to take care of A&M. As good as Texas A&M's offense is (averaging 44.7 ppg and 559 yards), it has struggled against top ranked defenses. The Aggies scored 17 points and had 334 yards against Florida and scored 19 points and gained 410 yards to go along with five turnovers at LSU.
-Jeremy
No. 21 Mississippi State at No. 7 LSU-
I like the Alabama pick and I would have to agree that is the game of the week, but just to add something I am going to pick another game in the SEC as the game of the week. This is an interesting game with Mississippi State losing its last two games and LSU falling in a close one to Alabama last week. Both teams are looking for revenge and that is why I chose this as the game of the week. The Bulldogs started the season 7-0 before two pretty ugly losses to Alabama and Texas A&M over the past couple weeks. This team looked like it was in line to challenge for a BCS berth and now it is trying to catch back up. The Tigers also started with BCS hopes but those have been almost all but dashed with all the other SEC teams in the top 10 with only one loss. Both of these teams are looking for a statement game. Let's start by looking at the offenses. At quarterback Zach Mettenberger has played much better over the past couple games including almost leading his team to victory over the No. 1 Tide. Mettenberger is completing nearly 60 percent of his passes for 1,717 yards and eight touchdowns. For the Bulldogs Tyler Russell has thrown for a lot of yards (1,954) and touchdowns (16) but he has been more of a game manager for the past couple games. At running back the Bulldogs rely on LaDarius Perkins who has carried most of the load with 153 carries and 804 yards with eight touchdowns. The Tigers have a tandem backfield with Jeremy Hill and Kenny Hilliard who are each over 400 yards this season and each have accounted for six touchdowns. Both are also averaging over 5.5 yards per carry. This game will come down to who can play the better rush defense, because as we know both have excellent pass rushes. I like the Tigers to win this because they are third in total defense (253.1) and 12th in rush defense (102.78). I do not think the Bulldogs can slow down the Tigers run games having allowed 168 yards per game this season while also allowing 377 total yards. Look for this game to be close early, but the Tigers to pull away late. There is no way the Tigers will lose back-to-back night games in Death Valley, look out Bulldogs, LSU is looking for serious revenge.
-Nick
Where the Stakes are High
Wisconsin @ Indiana
Going into the season, no one would have thought this game would have B1G Championship implications. But, with the crazy season we've seen in the B1G and the fact that the two best teams in the conference, Ohio State and Penn State, are ineligible, this is where we stand. Wisconsin is leading the Leaders Division with a 3-2 conference record and could really salvage, what has been a disappointing season for the Badgers. Indiana is 2-3 going into this game and if they win would improve to 3-3 with, what would be the head-to-head tie-breaker over Wisconsin. Each team still has conference games left after this game, but the winner will control their own destiny and have a chance to compete for the conference title.
Keep an Eye On
#11 Oregon State @ #14 Stanford
Big match-up this weekend for the Pac-12 North. Both teams are 5-1 in the conference and one game behind the first place Oregon Ducks. While both Oregon State and Stanford each still have a shot at the Ducks, a loss in this game would likely end their chances at the a Pac-12 North title. The winner stays right behind the Ducks with a chance to win in head-to-head play. Oregon State and Stanford have had eerily similar seasons- they both have top 20 defenses and have each had their own little quarterback flip-flop.
#10 Florida State @ Virginia Tech
The 8-1 Seminoles go into this Thursday night game in Blacksburg with ACC title on their mind. With a win, FSU takes one step closer to its conference championship and gets a good, prime-time, nationally televised win. Easier said then done as the Seminoles have been a tale of two teams this season at home versus on the road. The 'Noles have been utterly dominant in the friendly confines of Doak Campbell Stadium this season- they're 6-0, outscoring opponents an average of 54-9 and out-gaining them 584-199. Away from home has been a different story. FSU is 2-1 in road games this season and average 26 points to their opponents 18 and yards per game drops almost 200 yards, from 584 to 405, while opponents gain almost 100 more ypg, going from 199 to 284.
Despite the road struggles, the 'Noles are going up against a Virginia Tech team that finds itself in unfamiliar territory. The Hokies have limped to a 4-5 record and for the first time in years, they're going to miss out on a 10-win season. Unlike recent seasons, VaTech is struggling to produce consistently in the running game with quarterback, Logan Thomas lead the team with 422 yards.
I think this game will be close and I fully expect VaTech to play their best game of the season. Despite that, I just don't think the Hokies have what it takes to beat a Seminoles team that is superior in every aspect of the game.
Nick's Upset Alert
I think this week I am going to put Nebraska on upset alert against Penn State. The Huskers have been so up and down this season that I am not sure what team will take the field on Saturday in Memorial Stadium. I know Penn State is 6-3 this season but it seems like it has improved every week. Penn State is looking to spoil some teams seasons and this is the perfect opportunity on the road to put a hinge in the Huskers Rose Bowl aspirations. I think the key to this game is at the quarterback position. The Nittany Lions Matt McGloin is a much better quarterback than the Huskers Taylor Martinez. McGloin has thrown for 2,436 yards 18 touchdowns and just three interceptions this season. If Penn State is going to make the upset here they have to rely on a great game by McGloin.
Jeremy's Upset Alert
As I look at the slate of games this week, I really think Alabama should be on upset alert but I'm going with Kansas State here. TCU is down this season compared to the teams they've had the past few seasons. That said, they're still a very well coached team that knows how to win and will not be intimidated by the second ranked Wildcats. The health of Heisman front runner Collin Klein could also be a factor. Klein is expected to play, but you never know how guys will recover with head injuries. I'm going to take K-State to win, but don't be shocked if they don't make it out of Ft. Worth undefeated.
Thanks for reading!
Follow us on twitter @KinneyBrozCFB
Wednesday, November 7, 2012
2nd Down: KinneyBroz Top 25
Top 25
BCS-(AP)
1-(1) Alabama 9-0
2-(3) Kansas State 9-0
3-(2) Oregon 9-0
4-(4) Notre Dame 9-0
5-*(5) Georgia 8-1
6-(7) Florida 8-1
7-(9) LSU 8-2
8-(12) South Carolina 7-2
9-(11) Louisville 9-0
10-(8) Florida State 8-1
11-(13) Oregon State 7-1
12-(14) Oklahoma 6-2
13-(10) Clemson 8-1
14-(16) Stanford 7-2
15-(15) Texas A&M 7-2
16-(18) Nebraska 7-2
17-(19) Texas 7-2
18-(17) UCLA 7-2
19-(21) USC 6-3
20-(19) Louisiana Tech 8-1
21-(22) Mississippi State 7-2
22-(25) Texas Tech 6-3
23-(24) Rutgers 7-1
24-(NR) Northwestern 7-2
25-(23) Toledo 8-1
*Ohio State is tie for #5 in the AP Poll but are ineligible for the BCS.
Overrated
I always enjoy an underdog and love to see the big boys get their party crashed, but I gotta go Louisville here. The Big East is not a strong conference and they've only played two teams this season with a winning record. The only hope for a top 25 opponent this season is Rutgers who sits at #23 right now, but it's no garuntee that they'll still be ranked when thses teams meet on November 29th. Hat's off for being undefeated and good on you for making a BCS Bowl but there will be a more diserving team that gets left out to make room for the Cardinals.
-Jeremy
While I agree with the Louisville pick, I am going to a different direction and yes I will be going back on some earlier arguments I made here. My biggest overrated is Oregon. I cannot understand how this team is continually voted No. 2 in all the human polls. I am fine with the argument they have the best offense in the country that is no problem, I will give you that. That being said, let's look at the defenses they have played in just points against, Arkansas State (No. 63, 27.6), Fresno State (No. 32, 21.6), Arizona (108th, 35.0), Washington State (94th, 31.8), Washington (59th, 26.3), Colorado (124th, 46.2), USC (49th, 24.2) (Yes, I left out Tennessee Tech, does that even need explaining?) I think those numbers say it all, but just for a little more context, those teams average allowing 29.48 points per game. Also, let's look at this- there are two teams ranked 100 or below and three 90 or below, including CU who is the worst defense in the nation. Another reason this team is overrated is because I keep hearing how improved its defense is. Let's just say this, no matter how good USC's offense is, Oregon still gave up 51 points. Good defenses don't give up 51 points in a game no matter who they are playing. I can tell you Alabama, Kansas State, Notre Dame's defenses would not give up 51 to USC. I think if this team gets behind, just like West Virginia this season they are in trouble. If this defense is leaned on for more than one or two series it will crumble. There is my rant about the Ducks. Let the hate mail begin. I am putting this team on notice, with Stanford and Oregon State coming up, who both play physical defense and I think the Ducks are bound to struggle against one. And if they do get through the season unscathed and meet Bama in the National Title game lookout, its not going to be close folks.
-Nick
Underrated
The way Texas A&M is playing, this team looks like they could compete with anyone. Looking a most of the teams ahead of them, I wouldn't hesitate to take A&M against most of the teams ranked 14 up to number 5. We'll find out soon enough, with a trip to Tuscaloosa looming, if this A&M team can compete with the big boys of the SEC. The Aggies are getting Alabama at the best possible time (if there is such a thing). Alabama is coming off a huge, emotional victory over LSU and will surely be a little beat up after such a smash mouth game and the way Johnny Manziel has played recently, he could pose a major challenge for the Tide defense.
-Jeremy
Are you crazy?!?!
This really has nothing to do with the top 25 but Indiana is in control of its B1G fate and has a chance to represent it's division (I just can't take the conference names seriously) in the B1G Championship. Yeah, Indiana... in football. It's a tall order with Wisconsin and Penn State coming up, but why not Indiana? Nothing would put an exclamation point on this season for the B1G than having the Hoosiers in the championship game.
Jeremy's Top 25
1-(1) Alabama 9-0
They went to Death Valley, took LSU's best shot and still won.
2-(2) Kansas State 9-0
They get it done week in and week out. Klein's health will determine where this team goes the rest of the way.
3-(3) Notre Dame 9-0
Somewhere along the way everyone has to battle back and win when you're not at your best. The Irish did that against Pitt.
4-(4) Oregon 9-0
Good win at USC. We'll see if their November strength of schedule hold up.
5-(7) Georgia 8-1
The Bulldogs put together, perhaps their best win of the season against Ole Miss.
6-(6) Florida State 8-1
Call me a homer, but there are few teams more complete in all phases than the 'Noles.
7-(8) Florida 8-1
See Notre Dame. The Gators defense forced key turnovers to keep the Gators in the hunt.
8-(9) Clemson 8-1
As dangerous an offense as there is in college football. Won't really get tested again until Nov. 24 against South Carolina.
9-(5) LSU 8-2
Despite the loss to Alabama, this team might have just found an offense.
10-(10) Louisville 9-0
Solid team that just keeps moving up the polls.
11-(11) South Carolina 7-2
Off last week. How do they finish without star running back Marcus Lattimore?
12-(14) Oregon State 7-1
Bounded back this week with a solid win over Arizona State. Big conference game against Stanford coming up.
13-(12) Oklahoma 6-2
Up and down season for the Sooners. They've still got some big games ahead.
14-(15) Texas A&M 7-2
This team is coming on at the right time. Could play spoiler at Alabama this weekend.
15-(16) Stanford 7-2
Might have found an answer at quarterback just in time for three straight games against ranked, Pac-12 opponents.
16-(20) Nebraska 7-2
Someone will have to win the B1G. Could be the Huskers. If not... who else plays in this conference?
17-(24) Texas 7-2
Texas has won three straight and are starting to play much better on defense.
18-(NR) UCLA 7-2
Back in the polls after a breif showing early in the season. Could they challenge Oregon for the Pac-12 crown?
19-(22) Louisiana Tech 8-1
This team can score points with the best of 'em. Too bad they don't have a defense.
20-(13) Mississippi State 7-2
Back to back losses after a 7-0 start. This team is coming back to reality.
21-(NR) Northwestern 7-2
Quietly put together a solid season. They way the B1G has been, they're still in the hunt.
22-(25) Kent State 8-1
Who would have thought the MAC would have had been this good going into the season?
23-(23) Rutgers 7-1
Three big conference games coming up in November- Cincy, Pitt, Louisville... after Army.
24-(18) USC 6-3
These guys are going to have to get back on track in a hurry if they want to save their season.
25-(NR) Toledo 8-1
Toledo... welcome to the party.
Northern Illinois, UCF, TCU, Michigan, Boise State, WVU, Texas Tech, Cincinnati
Nick's Top 25:
1-(1) Alabama 9-0
All I can say is wow. There is a reason this team in No. 1. Sure there may have been some weaknesses exposed, but with the game on the line against LSU, the Tide made the plays to win and that is why they are the best team in the country.
2-(2) Kansas State 9-0
It was tough to see Collin Kline go out in the Wildcats game, but he is expected to be fine. This team has a tough one this week against TCU, but if KSU keeps rolling it should find its way into the title game.
3-(3) Notre Dame 9-0
Squeeking by, but that is how solid defensive teams win. They make the plays to win. The Irish should have never gone to three-overtimes against Pitt, but they found a way to win when they looked bad.
4-(4) Oregon 9-0
Still not sold on the Ducks. I will give it to them, USC is a good win, but they still gave of 51 points to the Trojans. The more losses that keep piling up in the Pac-12 makes this team look worse and worse.
5-(6) Georgia 8-1
The Dawgs are on their way to a meeting with Alabama in the SEC Championship game. I like the way this team plays. Aaron Murry is a solid quarterback and the UGA defense is solid.
6-(7) Florida State 8-1
I moved Florida State up this week. The Noles only loss was a fluke road loss and since then they have made everyone look pretty bad.
7-(8) Florida 8-1
The Gators got away with one in the Swamp against Mizzou last week. They are still rising, but all they can hope for is a Georgia loss to find their way back in the SEC Championship.
8-(9) Clemson 8-1
I am sure a lot of people will disagree with this placing of Clemson. I am the moron who picked Duke to upset them and they ran over the Blue Devils by five touchdowns. Also, their only loss is a road loss to FSU.
9-(12) Louisville 9-0
Good for the Cardinals and Charlie Strong to start 9-0, but they have had some close games against some pretty bad oppoenents. Teddy Bridgewater is one of the best QBs in the country. If they keep rolling they will make a BCS game.
10-(5) LSU 7-2
LSU had Alabama on the ropes before some big time players made some big time plays. I only drop them five spots because they lost not because of who they lost to. This team will rebound.
11-(15) Texas A&M 7-2
I have been saying for the last couple weeks I like the way this team plays and Manziel is a stud at quarterback. A trip to Bryant-Denny to visit the No. 1 Tide this weekend is a great way to see how close this team is.
12-(10) Oklahoma 6-2
Oklahoma only drops this week to make room for some teams that picked up good wins last week. This is a solid team, but I don't think it has a chance for a BCS at-large berth.
13-(11) South Carolina 7-2
South Carolina is in the same boat as OU, they drop to make some room for teams I think are better than them. I just do not know how long the Gamecocks can hold on without Lattimore at running back.
14-(13) Oregon State 7-1
Oregon State is a good team and with a big match up with Stanford this weekend one of these two teams may jump their way back in the top 10 with a win. This team plays physical defense and it should be a great match up in Palo Alto.
15-(14) Stanford 7-2
See Above. Stanford has a great front seven on defense and they are going to need it. I think it is going to be tough with a new starting quarterback. Stanford is a solid team and has a chance to make some major statements over the next three weeks.
16-(19) Nebraska 7-2
Great win for Nebraska last weekend against Michigan State. This team has found a way to salvage a pretty good season after a tough start.
17-(22) Texas 7-2
The Longhorns seem to be finding a stride after looking like they would have a new head coach next season (Idiotic!). There are still some holes to fix on defense, but this offense looks like it is starting to roll.
18-(21) Louisiana Tech 8-1
What can you say about a team that scores 50 points per game but gives up 49? Ok those aren't the exact numbers, but that is how this team wins. As long as the Bulldogs keep winning I am going to keep moving them up. I would rather see a one-loss WAC team than a three loss Pac-12 or B1G team.
19-(NR) UCLA 7-2
I struggled with this because as most of you know I am not a Pac-12 believer. This team does have some pretty good wins and looking like it is emerging.
20-(NR) Northwestern 7-2
The Wildcats are playing good football this season. They have emerged as a contender in the B1G but need some help to make it to the Rose Bowl.
21-(NR) Kent State 8-1
This Kent State teams looks for real. It has played better and better football over the last seven weeks winning seven in a row. Its only loss came early in the season against Kentucky, which I know is a bad team but it also defeated a previously undefeated Rutgers team on the road during that seven game stretch.
22-(25) Rutgers 7-1
Rutgers stays behind Kent State because that was their first and only loss of the season, but I cannot rank them ahead of the Golden Flashes after just having lost to them two weeks ago.
23-(NR) Northern Illinois 8-1
Go ahead and call me crazy with two MAC teams in the top 25, but Northern Illinois is just a good as Kent State. The Huskies have one of the best rushing attacks in the country and their only loss came the first game of the season to Iowa.
24-(17) Texas Tech 6-3
I struggled keeping this team in the top 25 but when I look at its losses they are all top 20 teams. I think they Red Raiders are still a great team and have been one of the biggest surprises in the Big 12 this season.
25-(16) Boise State 7-2
Another team I thought twice about keeping in the top 25 after losing at home, but I think this is still a capable program and I am not putting a three loss Pac 12 school in here.
BCS-(AP)
1-(1) Alabama 9-0
2-(3) Kansas State 9-0
3-(2) Oregon 9-0
4-(4) Notre Dame 9-0
5-*(5) Georgia 8-1
6-(7) Florida 8-1
7-(9) LSU 8-2
8-(12) South Carolina 7-2
9-(11) Louisville 9-0
10-(8) Florida State 8-1
11-(13) Oregon State 7-1
12-(14) Oklahoma 6-2
13-(10) Clemson 8-1
14-(16) Stanford 7-2
15-(15) Texas A&M 7-2
16-(18) Nebraska 7-2
17-(19) Texas 7-2
18-(17) UCLA 7-2
19-(21) USC 6-3
20-(19) Louisiana Tech 8-1
21-(22) Mississippi State 7-2
22-(25) Texas Tech 6-3
23-(24) Rutgers 7-1
24-(NR) Northwestern 7-2
25-(23) Toledo 8-1
*Ohio State is tie for #5 in the AP Poll but are ineligible for the BCS.
Overrated
I always enjoy an underdog and love to see the big boys get their party crashed, but I gotta go Louisville here. The Big East is not a strong conference and they've only played two teams this season with a winning record. The only hope for a top 25 opponent this season is Rutgers who sits at #23 right now, but it's no garuntee that they'll still be ranked when thses teams meet on November 29th. Hat's off for being undefeated and good on you for making a BCS Bowl but there will be a more diserving team that gets left out to make room for the Cardinals.
-Jeremy
While I agree with the Louisville pick, I am going to a different direction and yes I will be going back on some earlier arguments I made here. My biggest overrated is Oregon. I cannot understand how this team is continually voted No. 2 in all the human polls. I am fine with the argument they have the best offense in the country that is no problem, I will give you that. That being said, let's look at the defenses they have played in just points against, Arkansas State (No. 63, 27.6), Fresno State (No. 32, 21.6), Arizona (108th, 35.0), Washington State (94th, 31.8), Washington (59th, 26.3), Colorado (124th, 46.2), USC (49th, 24.2) (Yes, I left out Tennessee Tech, does that even need explaining?) I think those numbers say it all, but just for a little more context, those teams average allowing 29.48 points per game. Also, let's look at this- there are two teams ranked 100 or below and three 90 or below, including CU who is the worst defense in the nation. Another reason this team is overrated is because I keep hearing how improved its defense is. Let's just say this, no matter how good USC's offense is, Oregon still gave up 51 points. Good defenses don't give up 51 points in a game no matter who they are playing. I can tell you Alabama, Kansas State, Notre Dame's defenses would not give up 51 to USC. I think if this team gets behind, just like West Virginia this season they are in trouble. If this defense is leaned on for more than one or two series it will crumble. There is my rant about the Ducks. Let the hate mail begin. I am putting this team on notice, with Stanford and Oregon State coming up, who both play physical defense and I think the Ducks are bound to struggle against one. And if they do get through the season unscathed and meet Bama in the National Title game lookout, its not going to be close folks.
-Nick
Underrated
The way Texas A&M is playing, this team looks like they could compete with anyone. Looking a most of the teams ahead of them, I wouldn't hesitate to take A&M against most of the teams ranked 14 up to number 5. We'll find out soon enough, with a trip to Tuscaloosa looming, if this A&M team can compete with the big boys of the SEC. The Aggies are getting Alabama at the best possible time (if there is such a thing). Alabama is coming off a huge, emotional victory over LSU and will surely be a little beat up after such a smash mouth game and the way Johnny Manziel has played recently, he could pose a major challenge for the Tide defense.
-Jeremy
Are you crazy?!?!
This really has nothing to do with the top 25 but Indiana is in control of its B1G fate and has a chance to represent it's division (I just can't take the conference names seriously) in the B1G Championship. Yeah, Indiana... in football. It's a tall order with Wisconsin and Penn State coming up, but why not Indiana? Nothing would put an exclamation point on this season for the B1G than having the Hoosiers in the championship game.
Jeremy's Top 25
1-(1) Alabama 9-0
They went to Death Valley, took LSU's best shot and still won.
2-(2) Kansas State 9-0
They get it done week in and week out. Klein's health will determine where this team goes the rest of the way.
3-(3) Notre Dame 9-0
Somewhere along the way everyone has to battle back and win when you're not at your best. The Irish did that against Pitt.
4-(4) Oregon 9-0
Good win at USC. We'll see if their November strength of schedule hold up.
5-(7) Georgia 8-1
The Bulldogs put together, perhaps their best win of the season against Ole Miss.
6-(6) Florida State 8-1
Call me a homer, but there are few teams more complete in all phases than the 'Noles.
7-(8) Florida 8-1
See Notre Dame. The Gators defense forced key turnovers to keep the Gators in the hunt.
8-(9) Clemson 8-1
As dangerous an offense as there is in college football. Won't really get tested again until Nov. 24 against South Carolina.
9-(5) LSU 8-2
Despite the loss to Alabama, this team might have just found an offense.
10-(10) Louisville 9-0
Solid team that just keeps moving up the polls.
11-(11) South Carolina 7-2
Off last week. How do they finish without star running back Marcus Lattimore?
12-(14) Oregon State 7-1
Bounded back this week with a solid win over Arizona State. Big conference game against Stanford coming up.
13-(12) Oklahoma 6-2
Up and down season for the Sooners. They've still got some big games ahead.
14-(15) Texas A&M 7-2
This team is coming on at the right time. Could play spoiler at Alabama this weekend.
15-(16) Stanford 7-2
Might have found an answer at quarterback just in time for three straight games against ranked, Pac-12 opponents.
16-(20) Nebraska 7-2
Someone will have to win the B1G. Could be the Huskers. If not... who else plays in this conference?
17-(24) Texas 7-2
Texas has won three straight and are starting to play much better on defense.
18-(NR) UCLA 7-2
Back in the polls after a breif showing early in the season. Could they challenge Oregon for the Pac-12 crown?
19-(22) Louisiana Tech 8-1
This team can score points with the best of 'em. Too bad they don't have a defense.
20-(13) Mississippi State 7-2
Back to back losses after a 7-0 start. This team is coming back to reality.
21-(NR) Northwestern 7-2
Quietly put together a solid season. They way the B1G has been, they're still in the hunt.
22-(25) Kent State 8-1
Who would have thought the MAC would have had been this good going into the season?
23-(23) Rutgers 7-1
Three big conference games coming up in November- Cincy, Pitt, Louisville... after Army.
24-(18) USC 6-3
These guys are going to have to get back on track in a hurry if they want to save their season.
25-(NR) Toledo 8-1
Toledo... welcome to the party.
Northern Illinois, UCF, TCU, Michigan, Boise State, WVU, Texas Tech, Cincinnati
Nick's Top 25:
1-(1) Alabama 9-0
All I can say is wow. There is a reason this team in No. 1. Sure there may have been some weaknesses exposed, but with the game on the line against LSU, the Tide made the plays to win and that is why they are the best team in the country.
2-(2) Kansas State 9-0
It was tough to see Collin Kline go out in the Wildcats game, but he is expected to be fine. This team has a tough one this week against TCU, but if KSU keeps rolling it should find its way into the title game.
3-(3) Notre Dame 9-0
Squeeking by, but that is how solid defensive teams win. They make the plays to win. The Irish should have never gone to three-overtimes against Pitt, but they found a way to win when they looked bad.
4-(4) Oregon 9-0
Still not sold on the Ducks. I will give it to them, USC is a good win, but they still gave of 51 points to the Trojans. The more losses that keep piling up in the Pac-12 makes this team look worse and worse.
5-(6) Georgia 8-1
The Dawgs are on their way to a meeting with Alabama in the SEC Championship game. I like the way this team plays. Aaron Murry is a solid quarterback and the UGA defense is solid.
6-(7) Florida State 8-1
I moved Florida State up this week. The Noles only loss was a fluke road loss and since then they have made everyone look pretty bad.
7-(8) Florida 8-1
The Gators got away with one in the Swamp against Mizzou last week. They are still rising, but all they can hope for is a Georgia loss to find their way back in the SEC Championship.
8-(9) Clemson 8-1
I am sure a lot of people will disagree with this placing of Clemson. I am the moron who picked Duke to upset them and they ran over the Blue Devils by five touchdowns. Also, their only loss is a road loss to FSU.
9-(12) Louisville 9-0
Good for the Cardinals and Charlie Strong to start 9-0, but they have had some close games against some pretty bad oppoenents. Teddy Bridgewater is one of the best QBs in the country. If they keep rolling they will make a BCS game.
10-(5) LSU 7-2
LSU had Alabama on the ropes before some big time players made some big time plays. I only drop them five spots because they lost not because of who they lost to. This team will rebound.
11-(15) Texas A&M 7-2
I have been saying for the last couple weeks I like the way this team plays and Manziel is a stud at quarterback. A trip to Bryant-Denny to visit the No. 1 Tide this weekend is a great way to see how close this team is.
12-(10) Oklahoma 6-2
Oklahoma only drops this week to make room for some teams that picked up good wins last week. This is a solid team, but I don't think it has a chance for a BCS at-large berth.
13-(11) South Carolina 7-2
South Carolina is in the same boat as OU, they drop to make some room for teams I think are better than them. I just do not know how long the Gamecocks can hold on without Lattimore at running back.
14-(13) Oregon State 7-1
Oregon State is a good team and with a big match up with Stanford this weekend one of these two teams may jump their way back in the top 10 with a win. This team plays physical defense and it should be a great match up in Palo Alto.
15-(14) Stanford 7-2
See Above. Stanford has a great front seven on defense and they are going to need it. I think it is going to be tough with a new starting quarterback. Stanford is a solid team and has a chance to make some major statements over the next three weeks.
16-(19) Nebraska 7-2
Great win for Nebraska last weekend against Michigan State. This team has found a way to salvage a pretty good season after a tough start.
17-(22) Texas 7-2
The Longhorns seem to be finding a stride after looking like they would have a new head coach next season (Idiotic!). There are still some holes to fix on defense, but this offense looks like it is starting to roll.
18-(21) Louisiana Tech 8-1
What can you say about a team that scores 50 points per game but gives up 49? Ok those aren't the exact numbers, but that is how this team wins. As long as the Bulldogs keep winning I am going to keep moving them up. I would rather see a one-loss WAC team than a three loss Pac-12 or B1G team.
19-(NR) UCLA 7-2
I struggled with this because as most of you know I am not a Pac-12 believer. This team does have some pretty good wins and looking like it is emerging.
20-(NR) Northwestern 7-2
The Wildcats are playing good football this season. They have emerged as a contender in the B1G but need some help to make it to the Rose Bowl.
21-(NR) Kent State 8-1
This Kent State teams looks for real. It has played better and better football over the last seven weeks winning seven in a row. Its only loss came early in the season against Kentucky, which I know is a bad team but it also defeated a previously undefeated Rutgers team on the road during that seven game stretch.
22-(25) Rutgers 7-1
Rutgers stays behind Kent State because that was their first and only loss of the season, but I cannot rank them ahead of the Golden Flashes after just having lost to them two weeks ago.
23-(NR) Northern Illinois 8-1
Go ahead and call me crazy with two MAC teams in the top 25, but Northern Illinois is just a good as Kent State. The Huskies have one of the best rushing attacks in the country and their only loss came the first game of the season to Iowa.
24-(17) Texas Tech 6-3
I struggled keeping this team in the top 25 but when I look at its losses they are all top 20 teams. I think they Red Raiders are still a great team and have been one of the biggest surprises in the Big 12 this season.
25-(16) Boise State 7-2
Another team I thought twice about keeping in the top 25 after losing at home, but I think this is still a capable program and I am not putting a three loss Pac 12 school in here.
Monday, November 5, 2012
1st Down- Week 10 Recap
Week 10 Recap
On the Money
Nick hit the nail on the head in last weeks 3rd down when he said Alabama-LSU will come down to which team makes the big plays on offense. Going into the final drive it looked like that offense was LSU who out gained the 'Tide 435-331 yards and its surprise quarterback Zach Mettenberger who threw for a career high 298 yards and had one touchdown. Despite that, it was Tide quarterback AJ McCarron who led his offense on a five play 72 yard, 0:43, game winning drive. With all the great defense in the game, it came down to a couple of big offensive plays.
Biggest Surprise
Mississippi State- The loss to Alabama was expected but they way they got dominated by Texas A&M was not. Johnny Manziel and the A&M offense torched what was supposed to be a solid Miss. St. defense for 693 total yards. Clearly Mississippi State's ranking was a product of their soft early season schedule.
Florida Gators- It's reasonable to expect the Gators to suffer a bit of a hangover following their heartbreaking loss to Georgia last week. What I didn't expect was for them to struggle so much against a Missouri team that had been beaten up by the other top teams in the SEC, and at the Swamp no less. It took four, bad interceptions by Missouri's James Franklin, including one in the end zone on the final drive, for the Gators to hang on to the 14-7 win.
Oregon's defense- This defense has been tauted all year as much improved from last season but facing arguably their toughest test of the season, the Ducks defense looked in over its head. This team won't survive many games giving up 51 points. This unit gave up 615 total yards, including 484 and five touchdowns through the air. USC was able to push the Ducks front seven around most of the game and had it not been for an even worse Trojan defense, USC might have been able to establish a consistent rushing attached and taken control of the game. The Ducks aren't going to put up 65 points on every team they face and will need to fix the leaks in the defense if they hope to make it to the BCS Championship.
Hat's Off
Kevin Sumlin- Texas A&M head coach Kevin Sumlin is 7-2 overall and 5-2 in the SEC. Not bad for a guy in his first year at A&M, which is in their first year in the SEC. This team is off to a great start and has been surprisingly competitive in their inaugural season in the toughest conference in the nation. A&M's only losses are a 3-point loss to Florida and a 5-point loss to LSU.
Kenjon Barner- Barner had a career day against the Trojans, going for 321 rushing yards and five touchdowns as the Ducks, literally, ran away from what was supposed to be their biggest test of the season.
Moving Forward
Going into November we were all looking at what was supposed to be a difficult final month for the Ducks. Looking at it now, it seems pretty manageable and pretty weak when it's held up to the microscope. The Ducks rolled USC this weekend giving the Trojans their third loss of the season. Oregon have yet to face Cal (3-7), Stanford (7-2), OSU (7-1) and it's entirely possible that the best team they would have faced this season is a two loss Oregon State- assuming Oregon wins out (Stanford would get their third loss if Oregon wins out). Oregon State and Stanford play each other next Saturday, and it's not out of the relm of possibility that Oregon will end the regular season with a schedule that has no team with fewer than three losses. Given their non-conference opponents, I'm not sure how favorably the computers are going to take this Ducks team.
Kinney vs. Kinney
Nick and I agreed on 14 of the 18 top 25 games played last weekend and were correct picking all but two of those 14- UT-TTech and SDSU-BSU. Of the four games we disagreed on (Clemson-Duke, MissSt-TA&M, Neb-MichSt. and WVU-TCU) Nick hit three of the four, missing only on Clemson-Duke... and should actually lose more than one point for picking Duke over Clemson (come on Nick!)
Week 10 Tally:
Nick- 15-3
Jeremy- 13-5
Season Tally:
Nick- 79-30 (.724)
*Jeremy- 64-27 (.703)
*no picks week 7
PICKS
#1 Alabama- 21, #5 LSU- 17
Roll Tide Roll! Alabama took LSU's best shot but in the end, handed the Tigers their second loss of the season and kept it's BCS Championship homes alive with the win at Death Valley.
-Jeremy- Alabama, 20-16
-Nick- Roll Tide, 17-10
#2 Kansas State- 44, #24 Oklahoma State- 30
K-State keeps rolling despite losing Collin Klien late to injury. A strong defensive effort and five Oklahoma State turnovers helped keep the Wildcats undefeated.
-Nick-K-State, 45-28
-Jeremy- K-State, 41-24
#3 Notre Dame- 29, Pitt-26 3OT
Luck of the Irish! Notre Dame survives another overtime thriller against a Pitt team that gave them all they could handle.
-Jeremy- Irish 31-13
-Nick-Irish, 31-10
#4 Oregon- 62, #17 USC- 51
3...2...1... GOOO!! The Oregon Ducks continue to fly past opposing defenses with ease as they take care of the Trojans.
-Nick-Oregon, 52-45
-Jeremy- Oregon, 44-28
#6 Georgia- 37, Ole Miss- 10
Georgia seems to be hitting its stride at the right time and finally beat a team the way Georgia should be beating teams like Ole Miss. After a rough outing a week ago against Florida, Aaron Murray lit up the Rebals for 384 yards and four touchdowns.
-Jeremy- UGA, 34-24
-Nick-Dawgs, 38-24
#7 Florida- 14, Missouri- 7
Florida needed some help from Mizzou quarterback James Franklin who threw four interceptions, including one on the last drive of the game. The Gators survived a surprisingly close game at the Swamp.
-Nick-Florida 31-7
-Jeremy- Florida, 24-9
#10 Louisville- 45, Temple- 17
Louisville had one of its best wins of the season as they cruise past Temple. Quarterback Teddy Bridgewater threw for 324 yards and five touchdowns as Louisville remains undefeated.
-Jeremy- Louisville, 30-17
-Nick- Louisville, 24-7
#11 Oregon State-36, Arizona State- 26
Oregon State rebounds this week with a win over Arizona State. Cody Vaz seems to be the answer for the Beavers as he lead his team to victory after a 19-19 tie at halftime.
-Nick- Oregon State, 31-17
-Jeremy- OSU, 24-23
#12 Oklahoma- 35, Iowa State-20
Oklahoma rebounded from their loss to Notre Dame and cruised past Iowa State. The Sooners racked up 593 yards and held the Cyclones to 290.
-Jeremy- Oklahoma 34-21
-Nick-Sooners, 45-28
#13 Clemson- 56, Duke- 20
What was that, Nick? Duke over Clemson? Not this week. The Tigers were too much for the over matched Blue Devils.
-Nick-Duke, 34-31
-Jeremy- Clemson, 44-31
#14 Stanford- 48, Colorado- 0
Ugh. Colorado...
-Jeremy- Stanford, 34-17
-Nick-Stanford, 42-10
#15 Miss. St.- 13, #16 Texas A&M- 38
Johnny Manziel had a Man-sized performance against what was supposed to be a stout Miss. St. defense.
-Nick-Aggies, 31-27
-Jeremy- Miss. St., 31-30
#18 Texas Tech- 22, #23 Texas- 31
The Longhorns continue their up and down season with a big road win over Texas Tech. That's three straight for Texas.
-Jeremy- TTech, 45-41
-Nick-Guns Up, 42-31
#19 Boise State-19, San Diego State- 21
Not on the smurf-turf? Neither of us saw the Broncos losing at home to San Diego State?
-Nick- Boise State, 38-21
-Jeremy- Boise State, 34-10
#20 Nebraska- 28, Michigan State- 24
The Huskers stay in control of the B1G with their win over Michigan State. It's entirely possible that they could face Indiana in the B1G Championship. Yep, Indiana. Thank you Jim Delany for providing us with the legends and leaders that is B1G Football...
-Jeremy- Michigan State, 21-20
-Nick-Nebraska, 28-21
#21 West Virginia- 38, TCU- 39 2OT
Good call, Nick. That's three straight times I've picked West Virginia... and three straight losses.
-Nick-Frogs, 38-35
-Jeremy- West Virginia, 45-41
#22 Arizona- 10, UCLA- 66
Last week's voters must have meant UCLA #22 and not Arizona. The Wildcats, after beating USC last week, seem to have forgotten that they had a game this weekend. RichRod's boy's got steamrolled by a UCLA team that piled up 303 passing yards and 308 rushing yards.
-Jeremy- UCLA, 38-35
-Nick-UCLA, 31-28
#25 Louisiana Tech- 51, UTSA- 27
UTSA did its best to keep up with Louisiana Tech but the high flying Bulldogs were just too much for the Roadrunners. UTSA was even at 14-14 with LaTech at the end of the first but the Bulldogs outscored the Roadrunners 37-13 over the final three quarters.
-Nick-Louisiana Tech, 58-38
-Jeremy- Louisiana Tech, 54-28
As always, follow us on twitter @KinneyBrozCFB
Thanks for reading!
On the Money
Nick hit the nail on the head in last weeks 3rd down when he said Alabama-LSU will come down to which team makes the big plays on offense. Going into the final drive it looked like that offense was LSU who out gained the 'Tide 435-331 yards and its surprise quarterback Zach Mettenberger who threw for a career high 298 yards and had one touchdown. Despite that, it was Tide quarterback AJ McCarron who led his offense on a five play 72 yard, 0:43, game winning drive. With all the great defense in the game, it came down to a couple of big offensive plays.
Biggest Surprise
Mississippi State- The loss to Alabama was expected but they way they got dominated by Texas A&M was not. Johnny Manziel and the A&M offense torched what was supposed to be a solid Miss. St. defense for 693 total yards. Clearly Mississippi State's ranking was a product of their soft early season schedule.
Florida Gators- It's reasonable to expect the Gators to suffer a bit of a hangover following their heartbreaking loss to Georgia last week. What I didn't expect was for them to struggle so much against a Missouri team that had been beaten up by the other top teams in the SEC, and at the Swamp no less. It took four, bad interceptions by Missouri's James Franklin, including one in the end zone on the final drive, for the Gators to hang on to the 14-7 win.
Oregon's defense- This defense has been tauted all year as much improved from last season but facing arguably their toughest test of the season, the Ducks defense looked in over its head. This team won't survive many games giving up 51 points. This unit gave up 615 total yards, including 484 and five touchdowns through the air. USC was able to push the Ducks front seven around most of the game and had it not been for an even worse Trojan defense, USC might have been able to establish a consistent rushing attached and taken control of the game. The Ducks aren't going to put up 65 points on every team they face and will need to fix the leaks in the defense if they hope to make it to the BCS Championship.
Hat's Off
Kevin Sumlin- Texas A&M head coach Kevin Sumlin is 7-2 overall and 5-2 in the SEC. Not bad for a guy in his first year at A&M, which is in their first year in the SEC. This team is off to a great start and has been surprisingly competitive in their inaugural season in the toughest conference in the nation. A&M's only losses are a 3-point loss to Florida and a 5-point loss to LSU.
Kenjon Barner- Barner had a career day against the Trojans, going for 321 rushing yards and five touchdowns as the Ducks, literally, ran away from what was supposed to be their biggest test of the season.
Moving Forward
Going into November we were all looking at what was supposed to be a difficult final month for the Ducks. Looking at it now, it seems pretty manageable and pretty weak when it's held up to the microscope. The Ducks rolled USC this weekend giving the Trojans their third loss of the season. Oregon have yet to face Cal (3-7), Stanford (7-2), OSU (7-1) and it's entirely possible that the best team they would have faced this season is a two loss Oregon State- assuming Oregon wins out (Stanford would get their third loss if Oregon wins out). Oregon State and Stanford play each other next Saturday, and it's not out of the relm of possibility that Oregon will end the regular season with a schedule that has no team with fewer than three losses. Given their non-conference opponents, I'm not sure how favorably the computers are going to take this Ducks team.
Kinney vs. Kinney
Nick and I agreed on 14 of the 18 top 25 games played last weekend and were correct picking all but two of those 14- UT-TTech and SDSU-BSU. Of the four games we disagreed on (Clemson-Duke, MissSt-TA&M, Neb-MichSt. and WVU-TCU) Nick hit three of the four, missing only on Clemson-Duke... and should actually lose more than one point for picking Duke over Clemson (come on Nick!)
Week 10 Tally:
Nick- 15-3
Jeremy- 13-5
Season Tally:
Nick- 79-30 (.724)
*Jeremy- 64-27 (.703)
*no picks week 7
PICKS
#1 Alabama- 21, #5 LSU- 17
Roll Tide Roll! Alabama took LSU's best shot but in the end, handed the Tigers their second loss of the season and kept it's BCS Championship homes alive with the win at Death Valley.
-Jeremy- Alabama, 20-16
-Nick- Roll Tide, 17-10
#2 Kansas State- 44, #24 Oklahoma State- 30
K-State keeps rolling despite losing Collin Klien late to injury. A strong defensive effort and five Oklahoma State turnovers helped keep the Wildcats undefeated.
-Nick-K-State, 45-28
-Jeremy- K-State, 41-24
#3 Notre Dame- 29, Pitt-26 3OT
Luck of the Irish! Notre Dame survives another overtime thriller against a Pitt team that gave them all they could handle.
-Jeremy- Irish 31-13
-Nick-Irish, 31-10
#4 Oregon- 62, #17 USC- 51
3...2...1... GOOO!! The Oregon Ducks continue to fly past opposing defenses with ease as they take care of the Trojans.
-Nick-Oregon, 52-45
-Jeremy- Oregon, 44-28
#6 Georgia- 37, Ole Miss- 10
Georgia seems to be hitting its stride at the right time and finally beat a team the way Georgia should be beating teams like Ole Miss. After a rough outing a week ago against Florida, Aaron Murray lit up the Rebals for 384 yards and four touchdowns.
-Jeremy- UGA, 34-24
-Nick-Dawgs, 38-24
#7 Florida- 14, Missouri- 7
Florida needed some help from Mizzou quarterback James Franklin who threw four interceptions, including one on the last drive of the game. The Gators survived a surprisingly close game at the Swamp.
-Nick-Florida 31-7
-Jeremy- Florida, 24-9
#10 Louisville- 45, Temple- 17
Louisville had one of its best wins of the season as they cruise past Temple. Quarterback Teddy Bridgewater threw for 324 yards and five touchdowns as Louisville remains undefeated.
-Jeremy- Louisville, 30-17
-Nick- Louisville, 24-7
#11 Oregon State-36, Arizona State- 26
Oregon State rebounds this week with a win over Arizona State. Cody Vaz seems to be the answer for the Beavers as he lead his team to victory after a 19-19 tie at halftime.
-Nick- Oregon State, 31-17
-Jeremy- OSU, 24-23
#12 Oklahoma- 35, Iowa State-20
Oklahoma rebounded from their loss to Notre Dame and cruised past Iowa State. The Sooners racked up 593 yards and held the Cyclones to 290.
-Jeremy- Oklahoma 34-21
-Nick-Sooners, 45-28
#13 Clemson- 56, Duke- 20
What was that, Nick? Duke over Clemson? Not this week. The Tigers were too much for the over matched Blue Devils.
-Nick-Duke, 34-31
-Jeremy- Clemson, 44-31
#14 Stanford- 48, Colorado- 0
Ugh. Colorado...
-Jeremy- Stanford, 34-17
-Nick-Stanford, 42-10
#15 Miss. St.- 13, #16 Texas A&M- 38
Johnny Manziel had a Man-sized performance against what was supposed to be a stout Miss. St. defense.
-Nick-Aggies, 31-27
-Jeremy- Miss. St., 31-30
#18 Texas Tech- 22, #23 Texas- 31
The Longhorns continue their up and down season with a big road win over Texas Tech. That's three straight for Texas.
-Jeremy- TTech, 45-41
-Nick-Guns Up, 42-31
#19 Boise State-19, San Diego State- 21
Not on the smurf-turf? Neither of us saw the Broncos losing at home to San Diego State?
-Nick- Boise State, 38-21
-Jeremy- Boise State, 34-10
#20 Nebraska- 28, Michigan State- 24
The Huskers stay in control of the B1G with their win over Michigan State. It's entirely possible that they could face Indiana in the B1G Championship. Yep, Indiana. Thank you Jim Delany for providing us with the legends and leaders that is B1G Football...
-Jeremy- Michigan State, 21-20
-Nick-Nebraska, 28-21
#21 West Virginia- 38, TCU- 39 2OT
Good call, Nick. That's three straight times I've picked West Virginia... and three straight losses.
-Nick-Frogs, 38-35
-Jeremy- West Virginia, 45-41
#22 Arizona- 10, UCLA- 66
Last week's voters must have meant UCLA #22 and not Arizona. The Wildcats, after beating USC last week, seem to have forgotten that they had a game this weekend. RichRod's boy's got steamrolled by a UCLA team that piled up 303 passing yards and 308 rushing yards.
-Jeremy- UCLA, 38-35
-Nick-UCLA, 31-28
#25 Louisiana Tech- 51, UTSA- 27
UTSA did its best to keep up with Louisiana Tech but the high flying Bulldogs were just too much for the Roadrunners. UTSA was even at 14-14 with LaTech at the end of the first but the Bulldogs outscored the Roadrunners 37-13 over the final three quarters.
-Nick-Louisiana Tech, 58-38
-Jeremy- Louisiana Tech, 54-28
As always, follow us on twitter @KinneyBrozCFB
Thanks for reading!
Friday, November 2, 2012
Fourth Down: Week 10 Picks
Week 10 Picks
#1 Alabama at #5 LSU, 8pm ET, CBS
Good luck picking this game. Conventional wisdom says take Alabama without question. Alabama is arguably the most well-rounded team in the nation with a very effective, efficient offense to go along with, statistically, the best defense in the nation. LSU on the other hand has really struggled offensively. They have a very tough, physical running game but quarterback, Zach Mettenberger has been a liability in the passing game. All that said, this game is game is in Death Valley where the Tigers are 36-1 in home night games under Les Miles and have 22 consecutive home wins, the longest streak in the FBS.
-Jeremy- Alabama, 20-16
-Nick- Roll Tide, 17-10
#2 Kansas State vs. #24 Oklahoma State, 8pm ET, ABC
No way I am picking against K-State at home. I know the Cowboys are emerging and playing pretty good football, but as I said last week you cannot pick against Collin Kline, the kid is a winner. The Wildcats win this one.
-Nick-K-State, 45-28
I've learned my lesson about going against K-State (see the past two weeks). Wildcats at home. Win.
-Jeremy- K-State, 41-24
#3 Notre Dame vs. Pitt, 3:30pm ET, NBC
I don't see much chance for Pitt in this game. Their only road win is against Buffalo and with their lack of explosiveness on offense I don't think they have a chance of driving the field against this Irish defense. Notre Dame is coming off a huge road win over Oklahoma and has positioned itself nicely for a possible BSC Championship birth. Pitt looks to be just a minor speed bump for the Irish who should have no issues improving to 9-0.
-Jeremy- Irish 31-13
-Nick-Irish, 31-10
#4 Oregon at #17 USC, 7pm ET, FOX
As much as I would like Oregon to lose I am not sure if I can pick against them. I think this game will be very close for the first three quarters but the last of depth for SC will be a problem in the final stanza. I think this is a high-scoring high-flying matchup but the Ducks win.
-Nick-Oregon, 52-45
USC has looked sloppy and undisciplined... not a good look when the Ducks are knocking at your door.
-Jeremy- Oregon, 44-28
#6 Georgia vs. Ole Miss, 3:30pm ET, CBS
I put Georgia on upset alert in our '3rd Down' this week. Ole Miss has played well this season and have done a pretty admirable job sticking with the top teams they've faced, especially against Texas A&M. Georgia has been really Jeckle and Hyde this season and are coming off that huge win last week against Florida. I think Georgia wins a closer-than-it-should-be game, but don't be shocked if Ole Miss surprises the Bulldogs and throws a wrench into the SEC East.
-Jeremy- UGA, 34-24
-Nick-Dawgs, 38-24
#7 Florida vs. Missouri, 12pm ET, ESPN2
Flordia is looking for a rebound after its loss to Georgia last weekend and what better way to get back on track than with a Mizzou team that is having trouble in its first SEC year. Florida should have no problem in this game.
-Nick-Florida 31-7
Missouri's struggling offense will get swallowed by the Gators defense.
-Jeremy- Florida, 24-9
#10 Louisville vs. Temple, 12pm ET, ABC/ESPN3
Louisville survived a close one last week against Cincinnati. This week should be a little easier for the Cardinals with a struggling Temple team coming to town. Louisville controls this game start to finish.
-Jeremy- Louisville, 30-17
-Nick- Louisville, 24-7
#11 Oregon State vs. Arizona State, 10:30pm ET, ESPN2/WatchESPN
I like Oregon State to get back on track here. After a big upset by Washington last weekend the Beavers should be fired up and ready to beat an average Sun Devil team.
-Nick- Oregon State, 31-17
I wouldn't be shocked to see an upset here, especially with the question marks at quarterback at Oregon State. The Sun Devils will give them a game but OSU wins a close one.
-Jeremy- OSU, 24-23
#12 Oklahoma at Iowa State, 12pm ET, ABC/ESPN3
Oklahoma is going to have to shake off last week's loss to Notre Dame quickly as they face an Iowa State team that is fully capable of winning this game. The Cyclones have given other top Big-12 opponents trouble and should give the Sooners all they can handle. Oklahoma will start slow but eventually pull away from a game Cyclones team.
-Jeremy- Oklahoma 34-21
-Nick-Sooners, 45-28
#13 Clemson at Duke, 7pm ET, ESPN2/WatchESPN
This is a tough one to pick actually. Clemson is trying to line itself up for a possible BCS at-large spot and Duke is trying to rebound from a pounding by Florida State. Early in the season Duke looked like a team that was going to break out this season and make some noise in the ACC. I am going on a limb here but Duke pulls off the shocker.
-Nick-Duke, 34-31
See my response in 3rd down. Having just watched Duke get run off the field by FSU, I fully expect Clemson to do the same.
-Jeremy- Clemson, 44-31
#14 Stanford at Colorado, 2pm ET, FX
Stanford has to disband their football program if they lose to Colorado.
-Jeremy- Stanford, 34-17
-Nick-Stanford, 42-10
#15 Miss. St. vs #16 Texas A&M, 12pm ET, ESPN/WatchESPN
I am not at all impressed with this Mississippi State team. The have played one good team this season in Alabama (given Bama is in a class of its own) and were run off the field. Texas A&M is a good football team and its only two losses are to Florida and LSU both teams with SEC title aspirations. Johnny Manziel should be able to get the Aggie offense rolling in this game against a tough Miss. St. defense. A&M wins a close one and makes a major statement in the SEC.
-Nick-Aggies, 31-27
I'm going the other way on this one. I still think Miss. St. is a solid team and A&M has struggled against good defenses this season. Home-field advantage wins out here.
-Jeremy- Miss. St., 31-30
#18 Texas Tech vs. #23 Texas, 3:30pm ET, ABC/ESPN2
After squeaking by Kansas last weekend, I just can't take the Longhorns in this game. Texas' 100th ranked defense is going to struggle containing the Texas Tech offense and who knows what's going to happen with the quarterback situation with Texas. Texas Tech wins a shootout at home over the Longhorns.
-Jeremy- TTech, 45-41
-Nick-Guns Up, 42-31
#19 Boise State vs. San Diego State, 10:30pm ET, CBS Sports Network
I watched Boise State in person last weekend and it is beginning to look like a dominate Boise team of old. Than again it was against a pretty bad defense against Wyoming, but look out for D.J. Harper at running back he can carry this Bronco team to a Mountain West Championship. Boise should make pretty light work of SDSU.
-Nick- Boise State, 38-21
-Jeremy- Boise State, 34-10
#20 Nebraska at Michigan State, 3:30pm ET, ABC/ESPN2
There is no rhyme or reason to the B1G this season and I'm pretty much going to flip a coin for this one. Michigan State has been all over the place and I just put Nebraska back in my top 25, so history says they're going to lose. Someone will eventually have to win this conference and if Nebraska can't hold on to the lead who's going to? Your guess is as good as mine here. I'm going with Michigan State.. they shouldn't win so that's who I'm going with because that's what the B1G is this season.
-Jeremy- Michigan State, 21-20
I have to disagree here. I think Nebraska is actually playing good football right now. I mean Nebraska's two running backs are as good as any in the country. This game should be a true running back duel. I think Nebraska has a two talented backs instead of just one. Huskers win this.
-Nick-Nebraska, 28-21
#21 West Virginia vs. TCU, 3pm ET, FOX
I after WVU's loss to Texas Tech and its offense looking like it hit a brick wall, I have been saying this team is overrated. I still believe that and with a match up against another physical defense Geno and Co. are going to struggle. Even with a pretty average offense I like the upset here for TCU.
-Nick-Frogs, 38-35
I'm going the other way. Both teams are coming off back to back losses but TCU's defense has been roughed up the past two weeks and the Mountaineers are coming off a bye.
-Jeremy- West Virginia, 45-41
#22 Arizona at UCLA, 10:30pm ET, Pac-12 Network
Arizona is coming off a big win over USC but have yet to win a game on the road this season and quarterback Matt Scott got dinged pretty good last week. This one favors Arizona if it turns into a track meet but I'm expecting a let down by Arizona after last weeks win over the Trojans.
-Jeremy- UCLA, 38-35
-Nick-UCLA, 31-28
#25 Louisiana Tech vs. UTSA, 4pm ET, GamePlan/ESPN3
Louisiana Tech scores a ton of points and UTSA is just not ready to compete.
-Nick-Louisiana Tech, 58-38
-Jeremy- Louisiana Tech, 54-28
As always, follow us on twitter @KinneyBrozCFB
#1 Alabama at #5 LSU, 8pm ET, CBS
Good luck picking this game. Conventional wisdom says take Alabama without question. Alabama is arguably the most well-rounded team in the nation with a very effective, efficient offense to go along with, statistically, the best defense in the nation. LSU on the other hand has really struggled offensively. They have a very tough, physical running game but quarterback, Zach Mettenberger has been a liability in the passing game. All that said, this game is game is in Death Valley where the Tigers are 36-1 in home night games under Les Miles and have 22 consecutive home wins, the longest streak in the FBS.
-Jeremy- Alabama, 20-16
-Nick- Roll Tide, 17-10
#2 Kansas State vs. #24 Oklahoma State, 8pm ET, ABC
No way I am picking against K-State at home. I know the Cowboys are emerging and playing pretty good football, but as I said last week you cannot pick against Collin Kline, the kid is a winner. The Wildcats win this one.
-Nick-K-State, 45-28
I've learned my lesson about going against K-State (see the past two weeks). Wildcats at home. Win.
-Jeremy- K-State, 41-24
#3 Notre Dame vs. Pitt, 3:30pm ET, NBC
I don't see much chance for Pitt in this game. Their only road win is against Buffalo and with their lack of explosiveness on offense I don't think they have a chance of driving the field against this Irish defense. Notre Dame is coming off a huge road win over Oklahoma and has positioned itself nicely for a possible BSC Championship birth. Pitt looks to be just a minor speed bump for the Irish who should have no issues improving to 9-0.
-Jeremy- Irish 31-13
-Nick-Irish, 31-10
#4 Oregon at #17 USC, 7pm ET, FOX
As much as I would like Oregon to lose I am not sure if I can pick against them. I think this game will be very close for the first three quarters but the last of depth for SC will be a problem in the final stanza. I think this is a high-scoring high-flying matchup but the Ducks win.
-Nick-Oregon, 52-45
USC has looked sloppy and undisciplined... not a good look when the Ducks are knocking at your door.
-Jeremy- Oregon, 44-28
#6 Georgia vs. Ole Miss, 3:30pm ET, CBS
I put Georgia on upset alert in our '3rd Down' this week. Ole Miss has played well this season and have done a pretty admirable job sticking with the top teams they've faced, especially against Texas A&M. Georgia has been really Jeckle and Hyde this season and are coming off that huge win last week against Florida. I think Georgia wins a closer-than-it-should-be game, but don't be shocked if Ole Miss surprises the Bulldogs and throws a wrench into the SEC East.
-Jeremy- UGA, 34-24
-Nick-Dawgs, 38-24
#7 Florida vs. Missouri, 12pm ET, ESPN2
Flordia is looking for a rebound after its loss to Georgia last weekend and what better way to get back on track than with a Mizzou team that is having trouble in its first SEC year. Florida should have no problem in this game.
-Nick-Florida 31-7
Missouri's struggling offense will get swallowed by the Gators defense.
-Jeremy- Florida, 24-9
#10 Louisville vs. Temple, 12pm ET, ABC/ESPN3
Louisville survived a close one last week against Cincinnati. This week should be a little easier for the Cardinals with a struggling Temple team coming to town. Louisville controls this game start to finish.
-Jeremy- Louisville, 30-17
-Nick- Louisville, 24-7
#11 Oregon State vs. Arizona State, 10:30pm ET, ESPN2/WatchESPN
I like Oregon State to get back on track here. After a big upset by Washington last weekend the Beavers should be fired up and ready to beat an average Sun Devil team.
-Nick- Oregon State, 31-17
I wouldn't be shocked to see an upset here, especially with the question marks at quarterback at Oregon State. The Sun Devils will give them a game but OSU wins a close one.
-Jeremy- OSU, 24-23
#12 Oklahoma at Iowa State, 12pm ET, ABC/ESPN3
Oklahoma is going to have to shake off last week's loss to Notre Dame quickly as they face an Iowa State team that is fully capable of winning this game. The Cyclones have given other top Big-12 opponents trouble and should give the Sooners all they can handle. Oklahoma will start slow but eventually pull away from a game Cyclones team.
-Jeremy- Oklahoma 34-21
-Nick-Sooners, 45-28
#13 Clemson at Duke, 7pm ET, ESPN2/WatchESPN
This is a tough one to pick actually. Clemson is trying to line itself up for a possible BCS at-large spot and Duke is trying to rebound from a pounding by Florida State. Early in the season Duke looked like a team that was going to break out this season and make some noise in the ACC. I am going on a limb here but Duke pulls off the shocker.
-Nick-Duke, 34-31
See my response in 3rd down. Having just watched Duke get run off the field by FSU, I fully expect Clemson to do the same.
-Jeremy- Clemson, 44-31
#14 Stanford at Colorado, 2pm ET, FX
Stanford has to disband their football program if they lose to Colorado.
-Jeremy- Stanford, 34-17
-Nick-Stanford, 42-10
#15 Miss. St. vs #16 Texas A&M, 12pm ET, ESPN/WatchESPN
I am not at all impressed with this Mississippi State team. The have played one good team this season in Alabama (given Bama is in a class of its own) and were run off the field. Texas A&M is a good football team and its only two losses are to Florida and LSU both teams with SEC title aspirations. Johnny Manziel should be able to get the Aggie offense rolling in this game against a tough Miss. St. defense. A&M wins a close one and makes a major statement in the SEC.
-Nick-Aggies, 31-27
I'm going the other way on this one. I still think Miss. St. is a solid team and A&M has struggled against good defenses this season. Home-field advantage wins out here.
-Jeremy- Miss. St., 31-30
#18 Texas Tech vs. #23 Texas, 3:30pm ET, ABC/ESPN2
After squeaking by Kansas last weekend, I just can't take the Longhorns in this game. Texas' 100th ranked defense is going to struggle containing the Texas Tech offense and who knows what's going to happen with the quarterback situation with Texas. Texas Tech wins a shootout at home over the Longhorns.
-Jeremy- TTech, 45-41
-Nick-Guns Up, 42-31
#19 Boise State vs. San Diego State, 10:30pm ET, CBS Sports Network
I watched Boise State in person last weekend and it is beginning to look like a dominate Boise team of old. Than again it was against a pretty bad defense against Wyoming, but look out for D.J. Harper at running back he can carry this Bronco team to a Mountain West Championship. Boise should make pretty light work of SDSU.
-Nick- Boise State, 38-21
-Jeremy- Boise State, 34-10
#20 Nebraska at Michigan State, 3:30pm ET, ABC/ESPN2
There is no rhyme or reason to the B1G this season and I'm pretty much going to flip a coin for this one. Michigan State has been all over the place and I just put Nebraska back in my top 25, so history says they're going to lose. Someone will eventually have to win this conference and if Nebraska can't hold on to the lead who's going to? Your guess is as good as mine here. I'm going with Michigan State.. they shouldn't win so that's who I'm going with because that's what the B1G is this season.
-Jeremy- Michigan State, 21-20
I have to disagree here. I think Nebraska is actually playing good football right now. I mean Nebraska's two running backs are as good as any in the country. This game should be a true running back duel. I think Nebraska has a two talented backs instead of just one. Huskers win this.
-Nick-Nebraska, 28-21
#21 West Virginia vs. TCU, 3pm ET, FOX
I after WVU's loss to Texas Tech and its offense looking like it hit a brick wall, I have been saying this team is overrated. I still believe that and with a match up against another physical defense Geno and Co. are going to struggle. Even with a pretty average offense I like the upset here for TCU.
-Nick-Frogs, 38-35
I'm going the other way. Both teams are coming off back to back losses but TCU's defense has been roughed up the past two weeks and the Mountaineers are coming off a bye.
-Jeremy- West Virginia, 45-41
#22 Arizona at UCLA, 10:30pm ET, Pac-12 Network
Arizona is coming off a big win over USC but have yet to win a game on the road this season and quarterback Matt Scott got dinged pretty good last week. This one favors Arizona if it turns into a track meet but I'm expecting a let down by Arizona after last weeks win over the Trojans.
-Jeremy- UCLA, 38-35
-Nick-UCLA, 31-28
#25 Louisiana Tech vs. UTSA, 4pm ET, GamePlan/ESPN3
Louisiana Tech scores a ton of points and UTSA is just not ready to compete.
-Nick-Louisiana Tech, 58-38
-Jeremy- Louisiana Tech, 54-28
As always, follow us on twitter @KinneyBrozCFB
3rd Down-LSU-Bama, USC-Oregon, Wyo-CSU, Upset Alert
Alabama-LSU
Game of the Week/Game of The Year-
For the second-straight season this becomes the game of the year. It is not very often when you get to see two of the most dominate teams in college football battle it out year in and year out. This will be the third time in the last three meetings we have seen Alabama and LSU meet as top 10 foes. This is a series over the last two seasons that has been dominated by defense. First you get a 9-6 overtime thriller that LSU pulls out in Bryant Denny on Nov. 5th of last season. The Tigers took command of the national title race at that point and rolled to the end of the season scoring 41 in every game following that. In a very controversial National Championship choice, but the right choice (yes Oklahoma State fans this was the right choice because lets face it LSU beats you by 50 if you make the title game, and your win over Stanford was the best thing that could have happened to you), The Tide and Tigers met in the title game as the No. 1 and No. 2 teams in the BCS and the two best teams in the country. A much more prepared and focused Alabama team showed up in New Orleans on Jan. 9 and steamrolled the Tigers 21-0 and allowing just 92 yards of total offense by LSU.
This game and series is continually played on the defensive side of the ball. Both of these teams are unreal on defense ranking in the top 10 of every major defensive category this season. Starting with LSU, the Tigers are ranked No. 3 in total defense averaging 243.38 yards per game. Their rush defense is also top 10 at No. 8 averaging 94.88 yards per game. The Tigers scoring defense and turnover margin ranked No. 9 with 14.63 points per game and plus 1.13, respectively. All stats aside the Tigers key is their defensive line. The LSU line has accounted for 23 sacks and 65 tackles for loss this season. If the Tigers expect to win this game they need some serious pressure to stuff Bama's run game and put A.J. McCarron on his back all night.
On to the unstoppable Alabama defense now. This unit is ranked first in four of the five major categories and No. 2 in that fifth category (turnover margin). Very telling of how dominate this defense has been is total defense. The Tide allow just 203.13 yards of total offense pregame which is nearly 24 yards less than the No. 2 team Florida State and 40 yards less than LSU's defense. This can make a huge difference in Saturday's game. Also Bama is ranked No. 1 in scoring defense allowing just 8.13 points per game and are just one of two teams in the country allowing less than 10 per. The Tide pass and rush defense are both ranked No. 1. They are second in turnover margin at plus 2.13 per game. I think that is what will make the difference in this game.
Statistically the edge goes to Alabama, I am going to have a hard time picking against them. They are faster and more athletic than any defense in the country and have made every team they play look bad on offense. Advantage Bama.
I am going to throw some offensive stats out there because both of these teams will play great defense, but it is going to come down to which offense can make the big play. Bama's offense on paper looks like it should dominate the LSU offense because it is more balanced. The Tide average 222 yards passing (73rd in the country) and 214 yards rushing (23rd in the country) per game. Bama also averages 40 points per game which is 11th in the country. For LSU they are 25th in the country in rushing yards averaging 208 per contest and a pathetic 109th in passing yards averaging 177 per game. At 51st in points for scoring 31 per game if they can't move the ball on some bad teams they have played how are they going to move the ball on the best defense in the country. LSU could not move the ball on a fast and athletic Florida defense, and struggled with a big physical Texas A&M defensive line. On the offensive side of the ball I have to again go with the Tide. Alabama is significantly better at quarterback, McCarron is leaps and bounds better than Zach Mettenberger who is average at best. I think the quarterback position will be the difference in this game, with both defense so good against the run neither will probably be able to get going to well on the ground so it will be the big plays from the passing game that will decide this. And I will say Mettenberger cannot make the same throws McCarron can. Advantage Bama.
Let's continue on to the venue of this game. No doubt Death Valley is probably the toughest place to play in the country, especially in a night game when the No. 1 team in the country comes calling. Baton Rouge is on my bucket list to see a night game, what a crazy atmosphere and one of the best venues in the country. That being said I am not sure if that can swing the game in the Tigers favor. This will be the craziest atmosphere Bama has seen this season, but with the kind of veteran leadership it has it should be able to handle it.
Ok now that I have jabbered about stats and what not for the last 500 words I am going to get to what I actually think will happen in this game. As I have said a couple times before above, I do not think either team is going to be able to run the ball very well and this game will come down to who can make the big play in the air. This is going to be a very close match up and low scoring, but with some big turnovers and a couple big plays in the air I think Bama wins. So here it is America Roll damn Tide, 17-10.
-Nick
Oregon-USC (The overhype bowl)
That might be a little harsh brosef. I agree that 'Bama-LSU is the best game of the week but this could be a big one and Oregon is going to face its toughest test of the year. The Ducks haven't played a team with the kind of speed and athleticism that USC will bring and let's not forget that USC beat Oregon at Oregon last season. The Trojans have played well at home this season and I fully expect them to rebound from an inexplicable loss last week to Arizona and give the Ducks all they can handle.
I think USC will jump out early with Marquise Lee and Robert Woods and test the Oregon secondary, but in the end Oregon will wear out the Trojan's defense and expose their lack of depth. Oregon pulls away late and gets the win.
Oregon, 44-31
Wyoming-Colorado State (Border War)
I am sure 90 percent of you could care less about this game, but this is a big one where we are from so you are going to get a little west of the Mississippi rivalry knowledge. This is the oldest standing rivalry west of the Mississippi river playing for the 104th time this Saturday. Neither team is very good this season, but records never really matter in this rivalry. Wyoming was 7-4 going into the last game and CSU was 3-8. The Cowboys started with a bang but the Rams battled and had a chance to win on the last drive, before a Wyoming safety sealed the game 22-19 for the Pokes. Colorado State will be looking to stop a three-game Wyoming winning streak in Border War's, but don't expect that to happen this weekend. Talent wise the Cowboys are the better team, but they have regressed a lot the last couple games and don't look like the same team that was so highly tauted at the beginning of the season. This game is a tossup this season but the Pokes win a close one 35-28.
-Jeremy
Nick's Upset Alert:
This week I am putting Clemson on upset alert. They travel to Durham to take on a very improved and hungry Duke team. The Blue Devils are trying to live up to early expectations after looking bad against Florida State last weekend. Clemson does not have the same level of defense that Florida State has and Duke is a team that can move the football if its get rolling. I cannot believe I find myself picking the Blue Devils to upset a top-15 school, but I think this is the weekend the Devils make some noise. They are coming off a disappointing showing and are looking to have a major rebound.
-Nick
I saw this in your week 10 picks and while this could set up as 'that' game that Clemson inexplicably looses every season, I just can see it. I had a chance to watch FSU-Duke in-person last week and witnessed a fast, athletic Seminoles team run right by the Duke secondary time and time again. Duke just doesn't have the speed on the back end to keep up with Sammy Watkins and 'Nuke' Hopkins, who could both end up with career games against the Blue Devils.
I think Duke can keep it close with a solid offense that will move the ball and score points against a pretty porous Clemson defense. I think Clemson will get a challenge early and I expect Duke to hang tight for their first half to three quarters, but Clemson will run away late.
-Jeremy
Jeremy's Upset Alert:
I think Alabama-LSU or Oregon-USC are too easy to call as upset alert and really, I don't see either Alabama, or Oregon slipping up this weekend. When I look at the schedule of games I see two games that jump out at me for upset alert- K-State vs. Oklahoma State (I know, I'm glutton for punishment with this K-State thing) and OSU-ASU.
That said, I'm putting Georgia on upset alert. This team has been really up and down this season and I'm really curious to see how they respond after a huge win last week over then #2 Florida. The Bulldogs were going into the Florida game after a huge loss to S. Carolina and an ugly win over SEC whipping boy, in Kentucky. At times, Georgia as looked absolutely dominant, but they've had a hard time dialing in when they need to. Ole Miss is playing good football under Hugh Freeze and hung in pretty well against Texas, Alabama and Texas A&M. If the Bulldogs aren't keyed in and let the Rebels hang around, don't be surprised if they let this one get away.
-Jeremy
Game of the Week/Game of The Year-
For the second-straight season this becomes the game of the year. It is not very often when you get to see two of the most dominate teams in college football battle it out year in and year out. This will be the third time in the last three meetings we have seen Alabama and LSU meet as top 10 foes. This is a series over the last two seasons that has been dominated by defense. First you get a 9-6 overtime thriller that LSU pulls out in Bryant Denny on Nov. 5th of last season. The Tigers took command of the national title race at that point and rolled to the end of the season scoring 41 in every game following that. In a very controversial National Championship choice, but the right choice (yes Oklahoma State fans this was the right choice because lets face it LSU beats you by 50 if you make the title game, and your win over Stanford was the best thing that could have happened to you), The Tide and Tigers met in the title game as the No. 1 and No. 2 teams in the BCS and the two best teams in the country. A much more prepared and focused Alabama team showed up in New Orleans on Jan. 9 and steamrolled the Tigers 21-0 and allowing just 92 yards of total offense by LSU.
This game and series is continually played on the defensive side of the ball. Both of these teams are unreal on defense ranking in the top 10 of every major defensive category this season. Starting with LSU, the Tigers are ranked No. 3 in total defense averaging 243.38 yards per game. Their rush defense is also top 10 at No. 8 averaging 94.88 yards per game. The Tigers scoring defense and turnover margin ranked No. 9 with 14.63 points per game and plus 1.13, respectively. All stats aside the Tigers key is their defensive line. The LSU line has accounted for 23 sacks and 65 tackles for loss this season. If the Tigers expect to win this game they need some serious pressure to stuff Bama's run game and put A.J. McCarron on his back all night.
On to the unstoppable Alabama defense now. This unit is ranked first in four of the five major categories and No. 2 in that fifth category (turnover margin). Very telling of how dominate this defense has been is total defense. The Tide allow just 203.13 yards of total offense pregame which is nearly 24 yards less than the No. 2 team Florida State and 40 yards less than LSU's defense. This can make a huge difference in Saturday's game. Also Bama is ranked No. 1 in scoring defense allowing just 8.13 points per game and are just one of two teams in the country allowing less than 10 per. The Tide pass and rush defense are both ranked No. 1. They are second in turnover margin at plus 2.13 per game. I think that is what will make the difference in this game.
Statistically the edge goes to Alabama, I am going to have a hard time picking against them. They are faster and more athletic than any defense in the country and have made every team they play look bad on offense. Advantage Bama.
I am going to throw some offensive stats out there because both of these teams will play great defense, but it is going to come down to which offense can make the big play. Bama's offense on paper looks like it should dominate the LSU offense because it is more balanced. The Tide average 222 yards passing (73rd in the country) and 214 yards rushing (23rd in the country) per game. Bama also averages 40 points per game which is 11th in the country. For LSU they are 25th in the country in rushing yards averaging 208 per contest and a pathetic 109th in passing yards averaging 177 per game. At 51st in points for scoring 31 per game if they can't move the ball on some bad teams they have played how are they going to move the ball on the best defense in the country. LSU could not move the ball on a fast and athletic Florida defense, and struggled with a big physical Texas A&M defensive line. On the offensive side of the ball I have to again go with the Tide. Alabama is significantly better at quarterback, McCarron is leaps and bounds better than Zach Mettenberger who is average at best. I think the quarterback position will be the difference in this game, with both defense so good against the run neither will probably be able to get going to well on the ground so it will be the big plays from the passing game that will decide this. And I will say Mettenberger cannot make the same throws McCarron can. Advantage Bama.
Let's continue on to the venue of this game. No doubt Death Valley is probably the toughest place to play in the country, especially in a night game when the No. 1 team in the country comes calling. Baton Rouge is on my bucket list to see a night game, what a crazy atmosphere and one of the best venues in the country. That being said I am not sure if that can swing the game in the Tigers favor. This will be the craziest atmosphere Bama has seen this season, but with the kind of veteran leadership it has it should be able to handle it.
Ok now that I have jabbered about stats and what not for the last 500 words I am going to get to what I actually think will happen in this game. As I have said a couple times before above, I do not think either team is going to be able to run the ball very well and this game will come down to who can make the big play in the air. This is going to be a very close match up and low scoring, but with some big turnovers and a couple big plays in the air I think Bama wins. So here it is America Roll damn Tide, 17-10.
-Nick
Oregon-USC (The overhype bowl)
That might be a little harsh brosef. I agree that 'Bama-LSU is the best game of the week but this could be a big one and Oregon is going to face its toughest test of the year. The Ducks haven't played a team with the kind of speed and athleticism that USC will bring and let's not forget that USC beat Oregon at Oregon last season. The Trojans have played well at home this season and I fully expect them to rebound from an inexplicable loss last week to Arizona and give the Ducks all they can handle.
I think USC will jump out early with Marquise Lee and Robert Woods and test the Oregon secondary, but in the end Oregon will wear out the Trojan's defense and expose their lack of depth. Oregon pulls away late and gets the win.
Oregon, 44-31
Wyoming-Colorado State (Border War)
I am sure 90 percent of you could care less about this game, but this is a big one where we are from so you are going to get a little west of the Mississippi rivalry knowledge. This is the oldest standing rivalry west of the Mississippi river playing for the 104th time this Saturday. Neither team is very good this season, but records never really matter in this rivalry. Wyoming was 7-4 going into the last game and CSU was 3-8. The Cowboys started with a bang but the Rams battled and had a chance to win on the last drive, before a Wyoming safety sealed the game 22-19 for the Pokes. Colorado State will be looking to stop a three-game Wyoming winning streak in Border War's, but don't expect that to happen this weekend. Talent wise the Cowboys are the better team, but they have regressed a lot the last couple games and don't look like the same team that was so highly tauted at the beginning of the season. This game is a tossup this season but the Pokes win a close one 35-28.
-Jeremy
Nick's Upset Alert:
This week I am putting Clemson on upset alert. They travel to Durham to take on a very improved and hungry Duke team. The Blue Devils are trying to live up to early expectations after looking bad against Florida State last weekend. Clemson does not have the same level of defense that Florida State has and Duke is a team that can move the football if its get rolling. I cannot believe I find myself picking the Blue Devils to upset a top-15 school, but I think this is the weekend the Devils make some noise. They are coming off a disappointing showing and are looking to have a major rebound.
-Nick
I saw this in your week 10 picks and while this could set up as 'that' game that Clemson inexplicably looses every season, I just can see it. I had a chance to watch FSU-Duke in-person last week and witnessed a fast, athletic Seminoles team run right by the Duke secondary time and time again. Duke just doesn't have the speed on the back end to keep up with Sammy Watkins and 'Nuke' Hopkins, who could both end up with career games against the Blue Devils.
I think Duke can keep it close with a solid offense that will move the ball and score points against a pretty porous Clemson defense. I think Clemson will get a challenge early and I expect Duke to hang tight for their first half to three quarters, but Clemson will run away late.
-Jeremy
Jeremy's Upset Alert:
I think Alabama-LSU or Oregon-USC are too easy to call as upset alert and really, I don't see either Alabama, or Oregon slipping up this weekend. When I look at the schedule of games I see two games that jump out at me for upset alert- K-State vs. Oklahoma State (I know, I'm glutton for punishment with this K-State thing) and OSU-ASU.
That said, I'm putting Georgia on upset alert. This team has been really up and down this season and I'm really curious to see how they respond after a huge win last week over then #2 Florida. The Bulldogs were going into the Florida game after a huge loss to S. Carolina and an ugly win over SEC whipping boy, in Kentucky. At times, Georgia as looked absolutely dominant, but they've had a hard time dialing in when they need to. Ole Miss is playing good football under Hugh Freeze and hung in pretty well against Texas, Alabama and Texas A&M. If the Bulldogs aren't keyed in and let the Rebels hang around, don't be surprised if they let this one get away.
-Jeremy
Thursday, November 1, 2012
2nd Down: Week 9-Top 25
2 (3) Kansas State 8-0
3 (5) Notre Dame 8-0
4 (4) Oregon 8-0
5 (6) LSU 7-1
7 (2) Florida 7-1
8 (13) South Carolina 7-2
9 (12) Florida State 8-1
10 (16) Louisville 8-0
11 (7) Oregon State 6-1
12 (8) Oklahoma 5-2
15 (11) Mississippi State 7-1
16 (20) Texas A&M 6-2
17 (9) USC 6-2
18 (14) Texas Tech 6-2
19 (21) Boise State 7-1
20 (NR) Nebraska 6-2
21 (19) West Virginia 5-2
22 (NR) Arizona 5-3
23 (23) Texas 6-2
Jeremy's Top 25
What a week! A new team re-enters my top ten. Four teams in the top ten drop, two of those team completely out of the top ten. I've got three new teams in the top 25 and one making its first apperance of the year.
My top five shakes out with Alabama drilling Miss. State. This was really the first true test of the season for the 'Tide and they passed with flying colors. With last week's number two team, Florida, losing, K-State, Notre Dame and Oregon all move up one spot. K-State and Notre Dame, both continue to silence their critics and have earned their spots in the rankings. Oregon comes in at number four, one spot better than last week and LSU rounds out the top five.
Call me a homer, but I've got Florida State at number six. This team is one point away from being undefeated and has the talent to compete with anyone in the country and I think they're more complete than the teams directly behind them- Georgia and Florida. The Bulldogs get the biggest jump of any team after their win over the Gators. They've been incredibly inconsistent but they showed up when they needed to and took control of the SEC East. Clemson cracks the top ten and sit at number nine. The only blemish on their record is a loss at Florida State early in the season. Louisville rounds out the top ten and can thank Cincinnati coach Butch Jones for the help.
South Carolina improves from 14 to 11 this week after their win over Tennessee. Oklahoma and Oregon State both dropped out of the top ten and sit at 12 and 14, respectively. I only dropped Miss. St. two spots from 11 to 13, mostly because they lost to the best team in the nation. I like this team and they'll be competitive in every game they play the rest of the season. Texas A&M jumps six spots from 21 to 15 after drilling Auburn.
The biggest drop in my top 25 was USC. They've looked vulnerable all season and lost a very winnable game against Arizona. The Trojan's fall from number nine to 18 this week. Nebraska makes their every-other-week poll apperance, but I'm not expecting them to stick around for back to back weeks. The only other teams of note sitting at 20-25 is Louisiana State, who's back in at number 22 and Kent State after knocking off #15 Rutgers last week.
1-(1) Alabama 8-0
2-(3) Kansas State 8-0
3-(4) Notre Dame 8-0
4-(5) Oregon 8-0
5-(6) LSU 8-1
6-(10) Florida State 8-1
7-(13) Georgia 7-1
8-(2) Florida 7-1
9-(12) Clemson 7-1
10-(15) Louisville 8-0
11-(14) South Carolina 7-2
12-(7) Oklahoma 5-2
13-(11) Mississippi State 7-1
14-(8) Oregon State 6-2
15-(21) Texas A&M 6-2
16-(18) Stanford 6-2
17-(19) Boise State 7-1
18-(9) USC 6-2
19-(20) West Virginia 5-2
20-(NR) Nebraska 6-2
21-(16) Texas Tech 6-2
22-(NR) Louisiana Tech 7-1
23-(17) Rutgers 7-1
24-(25) Texas 6-2
25-(NR) Kent State 7-1
Nick's Top 25
There were some pretty big moves this week in the top25. The two most impressive teams were Kansas State and Notre Dame. Hats off to them as they stepped up big time in their wins. My top five this week doesn't change at the top with 'Bama staying No. 1 after showing Mississippi State who the best team in the SEC is. Kansas State moves to No. 2 after dismanteling Texas Tech putting up 55 points for the second-consecutive week. I don't think there is anyone else playing better football right now than Kansas State. The Irish move up one spot after going to Norman and coming up with a huge victory. This Notre Dame team is unreal on defense and like Jeremy said on first down, if Bear Bryant was right and defense wins championships, lets schedule the title meeting between the Tide and the Irish. Oregon moves up but only because they are undefeated, it still has yet to play a tough game in the weak Pac-12. LSU moves to No. 5 this week because its only loss is on the road to a top-10 team in Florida and a close loss at that. Get ready for Saturday! Big time once again with Bama and LSU!
Georiga makes it to No. 6 this week after a big win over Florida. The Dawgs forced six Gator turnovers and now control thier destiny in the SEC East. Florida State climbs to seventh this week after drubbing Duke. I still think this team can contend for a national title but needs some serious help to get there. Florida drops from No. 2 last week to No. 8 this week because the loss to Georiga. The Gators lost control of the SEC East and a national title berth, but are still in the hunt and just need to win out. I moved Clemson up this week, not because they steamrolled Wake, but because no one else is wanting to stay in that top 10. Let's not forget the Tigers only loss is to Florida State early in the season. Oklahoma rounds out the top 10, I just have a hard time droping them out of the top 10 because they lost two close games to the No. 2-and-3 teams in the country.
Coming in at No. 11 is South Carolina. I am not really sure what to think about the Gamecocks, they are a different team without Marcus Lattimore, so Connor Shaw is really going to have to step up and lead this team. Louisville is the only unbeaten team out of the top 10 at No. 12, and it is because they have won so many ugly games so far this season. Also if you look at the Cardinals schedule there are no real quality wins, but if they keep winning they could find themselves in the top 10. Oregon State drops to No. 13 this week after falling to Washington. Oregon State has a great defense, but the offense has been very shakey all season and if it cannot punch the ball into the endzone it is in trouble (as shown on Saturday). Stanford makes the move to No. 14 this week because it has played physical football all season and won ugly last week against Washington State, but it keeps winning so they keep moving up. The Cardinal's only losses this season have come to No. 3 Notre Dame and aparent giant-killer Washington. Texas A&M takes the final spot of the top 15 because I like the way it is playing this season. The Aggies had Florida and LSU on the ropes before being out played down the stretch, but this team has won every game it is supposed. Another big matchup comes this week for the Aggies with a trip to Miss. State.
Boise State moves up in my top 25 this week to No. 16 (and no it is not because it wrecked Wyoming last week) because the Broncos have improved every game this season. D.J. Harper is proving himself as one of the better backs in the country and is helping this team look like a possible BCS bowl contender. Texas Tech drops four spots this week to No. 17. I know they were taked to the woodshed by Kansas State, but this is still a good football team and can play defense with about anyone in the country. USC drops to 18 after its upset loss to Arizona in Tucson on Saturday. Big chance for the Trojans this weekend to prove that they are still one of the nations elite with the Ducks making the trip to L.A. I am still not a believer in Nebraska or Taylor Martinez, but if its defense can play like it did against Michigan last weekend the rest of the season look out. All it has to do is get Abdullah and Burkehead going and they can carry this team. At No. 20 is Miss. State and I will be the first to say this team is not as good as everyone believes. Its first real game of the season came last weekend against Bama and the Tide showed they what happens when you play a quality team. The Bulldogs have another tough test this week when the Aggies of Texas A&M come calling. Don't be suprised if they fall for the second-consecutive game.
Louisiana Tech reenters the rankings this week at No. 21 because all they do is keep winning. Tech's only loss of the season is to Texas A&M and I know they haven't beat anyone but that is why they are in the 20s. Texas stays at 22 this week after a near disastrous upset at Kansas last weekend. One thing is for sure about the Longhorns is they have no quarterback play and until they do they will be stuck at the low end of the rankings. Oklahoma State also enters the rankings this week this team has won three in a row after falling to Texas at the end of Sept. Big one for the Cowboys this weekend with a trip to the Little Apple and a meeting with No. 2 Kansas State and Collin Kline. I had to put West Virginia back in the rankings this week not out of affection for the Mountaineers but because I cannot put a three loss team in the rankings yet. I already said how much I do not like this team, being the most overhyped of the season so far (except for maybe Oregon). The 'Eers have a touch matchup this weekend with another physical defense in TCU coming to Morgantown. Rutgers takes the biggest fall this week 10 spots to No. 25 after falling to Kent State. The only reason I did not drop the Scarlet Knights out of the rankings is because Kent State is a pretty solid team and I refuse to put a three-loss average Arizona team in my top 25.
Subscribe to:
Posts (Atom)